US embassy cable - 03OTTAWA2251

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 002251 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CA, Paul Martin, Liberal Party 
SUBJECT: CANADA: LIBERAL LEADERSHIP RACE DOWN TO TWO, 
ADVANTAGE PAUL MARTIN 
 
REF: OTTAWA 2091 
 
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Brian Flora. Reasons 1.5 
(b) and (d). 
 
1. (C/NF) SUMMARY:  The Liberal Party will formally elect a 
new party Leader on November 15, but that individual will 
not/not become Prime Minister of Canada until incumbent Jean 
Chretien's retirement - announced for February 2004. With 
only two leadership contenders remaining, the question is not 
whether former Finance Minister Paul Martin will become Prime 
Minister but when.  Though many pundits assert that Chretien 
would never want to facilitate a Martin transition to power 
by leaving early, Embassy sources (protect) suggest the PM 
may in fact be considering a December exit.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) With the party membership drive ended on June 21, the 
next hurdle in the contest for leadership of the Liberal 
Party is the selection of delegates to the Liberals' 
Leadership Convention in six weeks' time.  Some 400,000 
registered Liberals across 301 ridings nationwide will choose 
representatives (13 per riding) to the November Convention 
the weekend of September 20-21.  This year's process will 
inaugurate reforms designed to bring the selection of the 
party leader and eventual PM of the country closer to the 
grass roots level of the party:  Delegates will be chosen 
according to a procedure incorporating the percentage results 
of a popular vote taken among the membership of each riding 
association to reflect actual candidate support. 
 
3. (C) Following Deputy PM John Manley's decision to bow out 
of the race (reftel), general expectations are high that the 
delegate selection process will demonstrate overwhelming 
support for Paul Martin--a centrist candidate--as the next 
party Leader.  Though Heritage Minister Sheila Copps, the 
remaining other candidate, enjoys a certain "cult following," 
her left-of-center ideological bent is deemed too narrow for 
most Liberals. 
 
4. (C) Martin insiders still are careful to maintain a 
"cautiously optimistic" demeanor on prospects for their 
candidate.  At the same time, public political support for 
Martin's bid has continued to grow even during Canada's 
traditionally slower summer cottage season. The most recent 
Cabinet-level endorsement came last week from International 
Cooperation Minister Susan Whelan, a Manley supporter, whose 
support brings to "at least 31" (out of a possible 39) the 
number of Cabinet members backing Paul Martin. 
 
5. (C/NF) COMMENT:  Given Chretien's ingrained antipathy 
toward his likely successor and longstanding political rival, 
veteran political observers expect the PM -- against all 
reason -- to throw obstacles in Martin's path.  This would 
include staying on as PM until the bitter end.  At the same 
time, at least one senior official told Ambassador Cellucci 
that Chretien likely will depart in December, and that a 
Martin cabinet could be sworn in before year-end.  Adding 
credence to this scenario is reliable information from a 
contact of the DCM (please protect) that a senior advisor 
close to the PM has lined up employment with a prominent 
Ottawa firm beginning January 1, 2004. 
 
6. (C/NF) COMMENT (cont'd):  The Martin camp is maintaining 
silence on what they do or do not know about Chretien's 
plans. Other than to acknowledge that transition issues (such 
as prospective Cabinet appointments) are on hold until after 
the September delegate selection results, Martin's campaign 
advisors claim no contact with the Chretien team. The 
candidate himself (protect) commented to Ambassador Cellucci 
that their recent meeting far exceeded the sum of his 
exchanges with the Prime Minister in the past year. 
KELLY