US embassy cable - 99TUNIS2120

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TUNIS 002120 
 
DEPARTMENT F0R NEA A/S INDYK AND PDAS J0NES 
ALSO F0R NEA/ENA 
PARIS F0R BLEAF 
LONDON F0R BSUTPHIN 
 
E.0. 12958:  DECL:5/20/09 
TAGS:  PGOV. PREL, TS 
SUBJECT:  BEN ALI SUCCESSION 
 
REF:  STATE 68334 
 
(U)  CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSAD0R R0BIN L. RAPHEL BASED 0N 1.5 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
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SUMMARY AND C0MMENT 
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1.  (S)  IMMEDIATE SUCCESSI0N ISSUES ARE LESS 0F A C0NCERN IN 
TUNISIA THAN S0ME 0THER C0UNTRIES IN THE REGI0N.  GIVEN HIS 
R0BUST HEALTH, THE 62-YEAR-0LD BEN ALI IS EXPECTED ALC (##)F0URTH 
TERM OF OFFICE UNTIL WELL INT0 HIS THIRD.  IN THE CASE 
0F THE DEATH 0R INCAPACITATI0N 0F BEN ALI, THE C0NSTITUTI0N 
CALLS F0R THE PRESIDENT 0F THE CHAMBER 0F DEPUTIES T0 BE 
APP0INTED AS A INTERIM PRESIDENT WITH LIMITED P0WERS UNTIL NEW 
ELECTI0NS CAN BE SCHEDULED.  THIS W0ULD PR0BABLY BE F0LL0WED 
SCRUPUL0USLY, GIVEN RULING PARTY DISCIPLINE AND L0YALTY AND 
TUNISIA'S LARGELY AP0LITICAL. H0M0GENE0US P0PULATI0N.  WHILE 
RULING PA"QM[BW9VQB THAT THE LACKLUSTER 
OPPOSITION FIGURES WOULD POSE ANY SERIOUS CHALLENGE TO THE 
POWERFUL (AND POPULAR) RCD PARTY MACHINE.  MOREOVER, THE ONCE 
STRONG ISLAMIC MOVEMENT REMAINS TOO WEAK TO THREATEN AN 
RCD-ANNOINTED SUCCESSOR TO BEN ALI IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  THE 
MILITARY DOES NOT PLAY AN INDEPENDENT POLITICAL ROLE.  IN 
SHORT, WE DO NOT SEE SUCCESSION POSING ANY SERIOUS THREAT TO 
TUNISIA'S INTERNAL STABILITY OR ITS FRIENDLY RELATIONS WITH THE 
UNITED STATES.  END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
 
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BEN ALI:  IN VIGOROUS HEALTH, 
HE CAN SERVE OUT A NEW FIVE-YEAR TERM -- AND BEYOND? 
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REPORTEDLY DYING, PREDECESSOR.  ALL EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT BEN 
ALI, UP FOR RE-ELECTION ON OCTOBER 24, WILL BE ABLE TO SERVE 
OUT HIS THIRD FIVE-YEAR TERM AS PRESIDENT.  (BEN ALI HAS BEEN 
IN OFFICE SINCE NOVEMBER 1987, BUT IN THE PERIOD BEFORE 1989 
ELECTIONS HE WAS FINISHING OUT BOURGUIBA'S FINAL TERM.) 
 
3.  (S)  WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY CURRENT HEALTH CONSTRAINTS 
WHICH WOULD PREVENT HIM FROM SERVING WELL BEYOND THAT TERM'S 
EXPIRATION IN 2004, ALTHOUGH A FOURTH TERM WOULD REQUIRE A 
CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE.  THIS WOULD NOT LIKELY BE AN OBSTACLE, 
AS BEN ALI'S RULING RCD PARTY WILL CONTROL ENOUGH SEATS IN THE 
CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES AFTER THE OCTOBER 1999 ELECTIONS TO AMEND 
THE CONSTITUTION TO ALLOW BEN ALI TO RUN AGAIN, OR HE COULD USE 
A NEW CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISION ALLOWING PLEBISCITES FOR ISSUES 
OF NATIONAL IMPORTANCE TO ARRANGE FOR "POPULAR DEMAND."  BUT 
WELL-INFORMED TUNISIANS ARE DIVIDED OVER WHETHER, IN FACT, BEN 
ALI WOULD WANT A FOURTH TERM IN OFFICE, AND HE HIMSELF MAY NOT 
BE SURE.  GIVEN HIS CAUTIOUS TEMPERAMENT AND DESIRE TO WEIGH 
ALL MAJOR DECISIONS CAREFULLY, TOGETHER WITH HIS CONCERN NOT TO 
BECOME A "LAME DUCK" PREMATURELY, THE ODDS ARE THAT BEN ALI 
WILL NOT REVEAL HIS HAND UNTIL WELL INTO HIS NEXT TERM OF 
OFFICE. 
 
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LEGAL MECHANISMS FOR SUCCESSION IN PLACE: 
WEAK INTERIM PRESIDENT TO OVERSEE ELECTIONS 
------------------------------------------ 
 
4.  (U)  IF THE TUNISIAN PRESIDENT DIES IN OFFICE OR IS SUBJECT 
TO TOTAL INCAPACITATION ("EMPECHEMENT ABSOLU"), ARTICLE 57 OF 
THE TUNISIAN CONSTITUTION STIPULATES THAT THE PRESIDENT OF THE 
CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES WILL ASSUME THE FUNCTIONS OF PRESIDENT "PAR 
INTERIM" FOR A PERIOD WHICH MAY VARY BETWEEN 45 AND 60 DAYS.  A 
POSITION WEAK BY DESIGN, THE INTERIM PRESIDENT IS RESTRICTED 
FROM PERFORMING SOME FUNCTIONS, SUCH AS DISSOLVING PARLIAMENT, 
CALLING FOR REFERENDUMS, OR DISMISSING THE GOVERNMENT.  THE 
INTERIM PRESIDENT IS TO OVERSEE ELECTIONS WHICH WILL ELECT THE 
NEW PRESIDENT FOR A FULL FIVE-YEAR MANDATE.  EVEN IF THE 
INTERIM PRESIDENT RESIGNS, HE IS NOT PERMITTED TO RUN IN THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. 
 
5.  (C)  BEFORE THIS SUCCESSION ARRANGEMENT WAS INSTITUTED VIA 
A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT ON JULY 25, 1988, THE TUNISIAN 
CONSTITUTION STIPULATED THAT ALL POWERS AND DUTIES WOULD 
DEVOLVE TO THE PRIME MINISTER IN THE CASE OF DEATH OF 
INCAPACITATION OF THE PRESIDENT, AND THAT THE PRIME MINISTER 
WOULD SERVE AS PRESIDENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRESIDENTIAL 
TERM.  THIS CLAUSE WAS INVOKED ON NOVEMBER 7, 1987, WHEN 
THEN-PRIME MINISTER BEN ALI NUDGED ASIDE BOURGUIBA, WHO WAS 
DECLARED BY DOCTORS AS MENTALLY UNFIT TO CONTINUE IN OFFICE, IN 
THE BLOODLESS COUP NOW KNOWN IN ARABIC AS "THE BLESSED 
CHANGE." 
 
6.  (S)  IN THE EVENT OF THE DEATH OR INCAPACITATION OF THE 
PRESIDENT, WE BELIEVE THAT THE CONSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS 
EXPLAINED ABOVE WOULD BE SCRUPULOUSLY FOLLOWED, AS WOULD 
PROVISIONS FOR ELECTIONS SHOULD BEN ALI STEP DOWN IN 2004, AS 
THE CONSTITUTION REQUIRES.  ONE WAY OR ANOTHER, THERE WILL BE 
ELECTIONS, AND THE RCD-ANNOINTED CANDIDATE WILL LIKELY WIN 
(EVEN IF THE ENTIRE CAMPAIGN PERIOD AND ELECTIONS PASSED OUR 
MOST RIGOROUS TEST OF "FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS"):  THE RULING 
RCD PARTY AND MILITARY/POLICE ARE VERY WELL DISCIPLINED AND 
DEV0TED T0 THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND ARE LIKELY T0 F0CUS 0N A 
SINGLE CANDIDATE RATHER THAN SPLINTERING INT0 RIVAL GR0UPS. 
THE PARTY REMAINS P0PULAR, AS M0ST TUNISIANS CREDIT IT F0R 
BRINGING PR0SPERITY AND STABILTY.  (A SHARP RISE IN 
UNEMPL0YMENT 0R SERI0US EC0N0MIC RECESSI0N C0ULD CHANGE THE 
F0RMULA, BUT S0 FAR EC0N0MIC GR0WTH REMAINS S0LID.) 
 
7.  (S)  M0RE0VER, THE GENERALLY AP0LITICAL TUNISIAN P0PULATI0N 
IS H0M0GENE0US AND FREE 0F ETHNIC/RELIGI0US/TRIBAL DIFFERENCES 
WHICH IN S0ME C0UNTRIES HAS LED T0 M0RE LIVELY P0LITICS 0R 
D0MESTIC INSTABILITY.  THE 0NCE STR0NG ISLAMIC 0PP0SITI0N IS 
WEAK, ITS LEADERS EXILED 0R IN PRIS0N, AND IN N0 P0SITI0N T0 
TAKE ADVANTAGE 0F A SUCCESSI0N.  THE LEGAL 0PP0SITI0N PARTIES 
WILL INCREASE THEIR PRESENCE IN THE CHAMBER 0F DEPUTIES AFTER 
0CT0BER ELECTI0NS BECAUSE 0F A C0NSTITUTI0N CHANGE INITIATED BY 
BEN ALI T0 RESERVE 20 PERCENT 0F CHAMBER SEATS F0R 0PP0SITI0N 
PARTIES.  H0WEVER, THEY ARE IN N0 P0SITI0N T0 WIN THE 
PRESIDENCY IN ELECTI0NS AGAINST THE WELL 0RGANIZED AND P0PULAR 
RCD -- N0R D0 THEY HAVE THE ABILITY T0 SEIZE THE REINS 0F 
G0VERNMENT BY F0RCE.  IN SH0RT, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT A SUDDENLY 
VACATED PRESIDENCY W0ULD LEAD T0 CHA0S, BECAUSE THERE IS N0 
APPARENT BASIS F0R`KL[_QUAN 0BVI0US SUCCESS0R BY NAME. IN FACT, 
FOR RCD (##)G0T 0FFICIALS T0 ACCUMULATE T00 MUCH P0WER IN THEIR 
HANDS IS N0T A CAREER-ENHANCING M0VE:MANY PE0PLE THINK THAT THE 
RECENT REM0VAL 0F FINANCE MINISTER JERI AND ENVIR0NMENT MINISTER 
STEMMED AT LEAST IN PART FR0M THEIR INDEPENDENT P0WER BASES (AS 
MLIKA WELL AS PLAUSIBLE ALLEGATI0NS 0F C0RRUPTI0N).  INDEED, AM0NG 
THE CURRENT CR0P 0F G0T MINISTERS, M0ST ARE TECHN0CRATS WH0 
R0SE THR0UGH THE BUREAUCRACY AND N0T P0LITICIANS WITH P0WER AND 
P0PULARITY IN THEIR 0WN RIGHT.  JUSTICE MINISTER KALLEL, 0NCE 
AN EXTREMELY CL0SE C0NFIDANT T0 BEN ALI, WAS RUM0RED T0 HAVE 
BEC0ME S0 STR0NG IN HIS PREVI0US P0SITI0N AS AN ADVIS0R T0 THE 
PRESIDENT THAT HE WAS "SIDELINED" T0 A MINISTRY WHERE HIS 
RESP0NSIBILITIES WERE M0RE NARR0WLY DRAWN.  THE PRIME MINISTER 
IS A MUCH WEAKER P0SITI0N THAN IT WAS WHEN BEN ALI WAS IN THAT 
0FFICE. 
 
9.  (C)  TODAY, PRESIDENTIAL ADVISORS MOHAMED JEGHAM AND 
ABDELWAHEB ABDALLAH ARE PERHAPS THE MOST POWERFUL IN BEN ALI'S 
IMMEDIATE CIRCLE, BUT THEY, TOO, DERIVE THEIR POWER FROM BEN 
ALI AND DO NOT ENJOY THE SORT OF INDEPENDENT POWER BASE WHICH 
BEN ALI HAD BEFORE THE NOVEMBER 7, 1987 COUP.  OF THE 
MINISTERS, MINISTER OF DEFENSE HABIB BEN YAHIA HAS SUCCEEDED IN 
PLACING PROTEGES AS BOTH MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND HEAD 
OF THE RCD, BUT HE IS A CAREER DIPLOMAT, NOT A POLITICIAN. 
MINISTER OF ENVIRONMENT FAIZA KEFI IS ONE OF THE MOST 
AMBITIOUS, SAVVY POLITICIANS WE KNOW, BUT TUNISIA, FOR ALL ITS 
PROGRESSIVE POLICIES, IS NOT READY FOR A WOMAN PRESIDENT. 
WHILE MRS. BEN ALI HAS MANAGED TO INSERT CLOSE FAMILY MEMBERS 
INTO INFLUENTIAL POSITIONS. THE RESULTING CORRUPTION, TOLERATED 
WITHIN CERTAIN LIMITS BY BEN ALI, HAS LED TO REVULSION AMONG 
MANY TUNISIANS.  THEREFORE, WE STRONGLY DOUBT ANY OF HER 
RELATIVES WOULD GET THE BLESSING OF THE RCD LEADERSHIP TO 
SUCCEED BEN ALI. 
 
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NO SERIOUS THREAT TO U.S. INTERESTS 
----------------------------------- 
 
10.  (C)  IN SPITE OF THE FACT THAT THERE IS NO OBVIOUS HEIR 
APPARENT WHO WOULD SERVE AS AN RCD CANDIDATE IN SUCCESSION 
ELECTIONS, WE DO NOT ENVISION A SERIOUS THREAT TO U.S. 
INTERESTS IN TUNISIA'S EVENTUAL TRANSITION FROM THE BEN ALI 
ERA.  TUNISIANS ARE GENERALLY PLEASED WITH THE DIRECTION OF 
THEIR COUNTRY, AND ANY FORSEEABLE SUCCESSOR TO BEN ALI CAN 
EXPECT TO FACE STRONG RESISTANCE FROM BOTH ELITES AND THE 
GENERAL PUBLIC TO ANY ATTEMPT TO DEVIATE FROM TUNISIA'S 
MODERATE POLICIES AND ITS FRIENDLY RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED 
STATES AND EUROPE.  WHAT WE HOPE TO SEE BY THE TIME OF ANY 
SUCCESSION IS A BROADER AND DEEPER DEMOCRATIC PROCESS.  WE 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE EVERY OPPORTUNITY TO ENCOURAGE THE GOT 
TO EXPAND PLURALISM AND FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION AND PRESS, IN 
ORDER TO GIVE THE GENERALLY MODERATE AND PRO-WESTERN TUNISIAN 
CITIZENS THE OPORTUNITY TO PARTICIPATE IN, AND REINFORCE, A 
SMOOTH SUCCESSION OF POWER THAT REFLECTS DEMOCRATIC NORMS. 
 
RAPHEL