US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO1384

C O N F I D E N T I A L COLOMBO 001384 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  08-07-13 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PHUM, MV, Maldives 
SUBJECT:  Maldivian presidential selection process set 
to kick off, with President expected to win easily 
 
Refs:  Colombo 1266, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Charge d'Affaires. 
Reasons 1.5 (b, d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  The Maldivian presidential selection 
process is set to kick off in September, with the Majlis 
(parliament) selecting a candidate who will stand in a 
referendum in October.  President Gayoom is widely 
expected to win with ease.  Gayoom seems a popular 
ruler, though the selection system has come under some 
criticism.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U) UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL "ELECTION":  The Maldivian 
presidential selection process is set to kick off.  The 
Maldivian government has not yet settled on a final 
schedule of events, but the Majlis seems slated to 
select a candidate in September who will then stand in a 
national referendum in October.  The presidential 
inauguration is tentatively scheduled to take place in 
November. 
 
3.  (U) MORE ON THE PROCESS:  Under the country's 
presidential selection process (which the Maldivians 
call an "election"), any citizen who meets the 
eligibility requirements (Sunni Muslim, requisite age 35 
or older, male, etc.) set out in the 1968 constitution, 
can run for president by submitting his name as a 
candidate to the unicameral 48-member Majlis.  In a 
secret ballot, the Majlis, which is composed of elected 
 
SIPDIS 
and appointed members (there are no political parties), 
then selects a single candidate.  This candidate is then 
approved (or not) in a "yes or no" national referendum, 
with a majority "yes" vote needed for approval.  The 
president serves a five year term. 
 
4.  (C) GAYOOM WIDELY EXPECTED TO WIN:  President 
Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, who has been in power since 1978, 
is widely expected to run and win his sixth term.  When 
queried during a recent Embassy trip to Male, 
interlocutors said they expected that Gayoom would win 
without much if any problem.  Some observers have told 
emboffs, however, that Gayoom might face an opponent or 
two in the Majlis vote that kicks off the process.  None 
of the possible opponents is considered well-known, or 
to be much of a threat to Gayoom, who is believed to 
maintain strong support among the various atoll-based 
factions that rub shoulders in the Majlis.  Once Gayoom 
gets past the Majlis, he seems set to easily win the 
"yes/no" referendum.  In past referendums, Gayoom has 
garnered well over 95 percent "yes" votes. 
 
5.  (C) COMMENT:  With the wind of solid economic 
indices behind his back (see Reftels), Gayoom and his 
ruling circle seem to be relatively popular (there are 
no polls, so this perception is anecdotal).  The 
Maldives, however, has come under some criticism for its 
only marginally democratic presidential selection 
process, which has chronically produced non-competitive 
races in the past.  In recent years, given very 
tentative stirrings among the younger generation for 
change (50 percent of the population is under 20 years 
of age), this system might well have to be adjusted and 
opened up.  At this point, however, Gayoom's path to a 
sixth term seems to be clear.  END COMMENT. 
 
6.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
ENTWISTLE