US embassy cable - 03ABUJA1331

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001331 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/05/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, PINR, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: POLITICAL ROUNDUP AUGUST 6 
 
 CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE DAWN M. LIBERI; REASON: 1.5 (B) and (D). 
 
 
1.    (U) THIS PERIODIC JOINT POLITICAL REPORT FROM ABUJA 
INCLUDES: 
 
 
--Obasanjo Chooses Special Advisors 
--Obasanjo Submits List of Ministers 
--Electoral Conference ) INEC Admits Problems 
--Opposition Book Launch 
--Court Case on the Presidential Election 
--Probe of Inspector General of Police 
--New AD Chairman 
 
 
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Obasanjo Chooses Special Advisors 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
2. (C) President Obasanjo has chosen thirteen Special 
Advisors, many of which are former Ministers in the previous 
Obasanjo Administration.  Obasanjo retained National Security 
Advisor Lt. General Aliyu Mohammed-Gusau and Dr. Rilwanu 
Lukman as his Special Advisor for Petroleum and Energy.  NSA 
Mohammed is an ally of former Head of State Babangida and had 
not been in Obasanjo,s good graces because of his divided 
loyalties.  However, Obasanjo kept Mohammed despite the 
latter,s attempt to resign months ago.  Obasanjo probably 
figured out it was better to hold Mohammed near than let him 
go because Mohammed knows many of the weaknesses in the 
Presidency that Obasanjo would rather not see come to light 
or be exploited.  Additionally, Mohammed,s and Babangida,s 
ambitions for 2007 now collide with Vice President Atiku. 
Retaining Mohammed may be seen as a way to help check 
Atiku,s desires.  Dr. Lukman is a highly respected face in 
the international oil community and his retention serves to 
satisfy this important constituency that Nigeria will remain 
a consistent team player in OPEC.  Obasanjo selected PDP 
Chairman Audu Ogbeh as his Advisor on Agriculture.  Ogbeh 
also will remain the party,s chairman.  Obasanjo also 
selected recently ousted Alliance for Democracy Chairman 
Alhaji Ahmed Abdulkadir as Advisor on Manufacturing and the 
Private Sector.  Obasanjo selected ANPP presidential aspirant 
Chief Rochas Okorocha as his advisor on Inter-Party Affairs. 
 
 
3. (C) Obasanjo also selected several ministers from his 
pervious cabinet as advisors, including: Jerry Gana (Minister 
of Information and National Orientation) as Advisor on 
Politics; Ojo Maduekwe (Minister of Transportation) as 
Advisor on Constitutional and Legal Matters; Kanu Agabi 
(Attorney General) as Advisor on Ethics and Good Governance; 
Mallam Lawal Batagarawa (Minister of State for Defense) as 
Advisor on Non-Party Relations; Mohammed Abba Gana (Minister 
of the FCT) as Advisor on Relations with Civil Society. 
(COMMENT: The naming of so many former ministers poses an 
interesting question that can only be answered as time 
unfolds.  Is Obasanjo trying to strengthen his covey of 
advisors in order to run the government from the Presidency 
or are these sinecures, political favors for past services? 
END COMMENT) 
 
 
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Obasanjo Submits List of Ministers 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
4. (C) Obasanjo submitted his list of 40 names for 
ministerial positions to the National Assembly (bios sent 
septel).  In an unorthodox twist, Obasanjo did not assign any 
portfolios when he submitted the roster for National Assembly 
confirmation.  This undermined the confirmation process by 
forcing the Assembly to screen applicants based on their 
general merits and not specific technical expertise or 
experience.  Additionally undermining the process was the 
practice that nominees who were former Senators were 
basically not questioned, due to senatorial etiquette and 
custom.  Several of the forty were senators at some point in 
their political careers. 
 
 
5. (C) Diminishing the important legislative oversight of the 
executive, Obasanjo,s tack in not identifying the portfolios 
indicates his continued disregard for the Assembly.  It also 
deprives the nominations of full meaning by treating the 
nominees as if they were interchangeable parts, it makes them 
seem less important.  The President has been quoted several 
times in the press that loyalty is the best attribute of a 
minister.  Such statements only add to the impression that 
Obasanjo basically views his cabinet as administrators to 
follow his orders and less as advisors and equals who will 
help shape his policies. 
 
 
6. (C) The federal constitution mandates that there must be a 
minimum of 36 ministers representing each of the 36 states. 
Of the 40 candidates put forth all but one have been approved 
by the National Assembly, with one name dropped from the 
list.  The Assembly rejected former Minister of Education 
Babalola Borishade, and Obasanjo has since resubmitted the 
name, stating that the Senate did not give a reason for the 
dismissal.  Obasanjo dropped Adewale Oladipo, who had been 
linked to the murder of former Attorney General Ige, from the 
list without explanation. 
------------------------------------------- 
Electoral Conference ) INEC Admits Problems 
------------------------------------------- 
 
 
7. (U) At the opening of a post-election review conference 
held in Kaduna for three days this week, INEC Chairman Abel 
Guobadia admitted to serious flaws in this year,s elections, 
but stated that the elections overall were credible.  Showing 
that bitterness over the elections has not receded, the major 
opposition parties, including the ANPP and APGA, boycotted 
the seminar.  Guobadia accepted the constructive criticism of 
various international and domestic observer groups. (NOTE: 
This is a reversal of his stance immediately after the 
elections. END NOTE) While his admission of flaws was seen as 
an honest, but late acknowledgement, Guobadia,s claim that 
INEC improved between the National Assembly elections on 
April 12 and the Presidential and Gubernatorial elections on 
April 19 found few supporters inside or outside the 
conference.  The conference was intended to explore methods 
of improving future elections, including the revision of the 
electoral law. 
 
 
---------------------- 
Opposition Book Launch 
---------------------- 
 
 
8. (C) The Conference of Nigerian Political Parties, a 
grouping of opposition parties including the ANPP and APGA, 
held a book launching on July 29.  The three books released 
are "Stolen Mandate," "The Madness Called Election 2003," and 
"Buhari Goes to Court."  In attendance were ANPP presidential 
candidate Mohammedu Buhari, his running mate, Chuba Okadigbo, 
the APGA National Chairman, CNPP Chairman Balarabe Musa, and 
others from various opposition parties.  They contended that 
the continuing Anambra crisis is not only a testimony that 
elections did not hold in the Southeast, but also that it 
marks "the beginning of the end of PDP government." 
 
 
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Court Case on the Presidential Election 
---------------------------------------- 
 
 
9. (U) The Federal Court of Appeal ) -- the court of first 
instance for a petition against the presidential election ) 
-- rejected the Presidency,s motion to dismiss Buhari,s 
suit against the April 19 presidential election.  With the 
motion to dismiss out of the way, the case is one step closer 
to a hearing on the substantive merits of the case, that 
Obasanjo,s victory was due to electoral malpractice. 
Substantive arguments begin this week. 
 
 
------------------------------------ 
Probe of Inspector General of Police 
------------------------------------ 
 
 
10. (C) Inspector General Tafa Balogun has come increasingly 
under fire in the last several weeks since the temporary 
abduction of Anambra State Governor Chris Ngige.  As the 
reverberations from Ngige,s ordeal continue to hold the 
country,s attention, Obasanjo has ordered a probe, including 
any role played by Balogun.  Unlike other various allegations 
of police corruption or involvement in official misconduct, 
this probe will be by the State Security Service.  Balogun 
will have no control over any aspect of the investigation, an 
indication that Obasanjo may be preparing to cut him loose. 
The timing is especially bad for Balogun who is also 
defending against allegations that he collected N35 million 
from Delta Governor James Ibori to cover up a previous 
criminal conviction, something that would have barred him 
from the gubernatorial seat. 
 
 
--------------- 
New AD Chairman 
--------------- 
 
 
11. (U) The National Executive Committee of the AD on July 22 
removed Alhaji Abdulkadir Ahmed as National Chairman.  Former 
Osun State Governor, Chief Bisi Akande, is the new chairman, 
and will remain in charge until the party can hold a national 
convention in September.  This step follows on Abdulkadir,s 
acceptance of the post of Special Advisor on Manufacturing 
and the Private Sector.  Abdulkadir had drawn ire from within 
the party for being too close to Obasanjo prior to the 
elections and accepting defeat too easily, when the party 
lost five of six state governors.  In response, Abdulkadir 
has stated that he has not resigned from the AD, and says he 
cannot be removed without a national conference. 
LIBERI