US embassy cable - 03AMMAN4849

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 004849 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, SOCI, KISL, JO 
SUBJECT: POLL RESULTS REFLECT GROWING POPULAR DESIRE FOR 
POLITICAL PARTICIPATION 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Doug Silliman, per Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C)  A Jordanian pollster who has conducted a number of 
studies in the country over the past several years believes 
that there is a growing disconnect between government 
pronouncements on democracy and the popular perception of 
Jordanian "half-democracy."  In a recent conversation with 
Pol Intern, he discussed a variety of issues including:  rule 
of law and justice; the persistence of elements of 
authoritarianism; the role and durability of parliamentary 
blocs; controversial "temporary laws;" and municipal 
elections.  His research points to the conclusion that 
Jordanians desire a more inclusive and open political sphere 
that promotes a real program of democratization. 
 
2.  (C)  With the end of the war in Iraq and violence down in 
the West Bank, Jordanians are now more likely to turn their 
attention to domestic issues.  Embassy contacts echo what we 
have heard anecdotally from both government officials and 
non-governmental leaders, and the pollster's conclusions 
bolster what seems to be a rise in popular calls for greater 
participation.  End Summary. 
 
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Polls Not Always Pleasant 
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3.  (C)  Pol Intern met July 17 with Dr. Fares Braizat, 
coordinator of the Center for Strategic Studies' Opinion 
Polling Unit at the University of Jordan.  Braizat earned a 
Ph.D. in politics and government from the University of 
Canterbury, England, and has published a number of studies on 
politics, culture, and democratization.  He claimed that he 
and his colleagues at the Center have come under government 
fire in the past for poll results which did not mesh with the 
government's desired results.  On more than one occasion, he 
claimed, the Center was on the verge of being shut down. 
 
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Anti-Government Forces 
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4.  (C)  In three recent polls, Braizat surveyed random 
samples of people nationally, in Palestinian refugee camps 
and in the conservative city of Ma an.  While there is some 
measure of discontent with the government and pace of 
democratization across the board, Ma an was statistically 
worse than the other two samples.  Its population's generally 
pessimistic attitudes toward the central government, which 
boiled over into streets protests in 1989, the mid-1990s, and 
2002, were reflected in the way the Ma an community ranked 
Jordanian democracy behind all countries in the region, 
including Israel and Saudi Arabia.  Surveying attitudes of 
the residents of Ma an, Braizat found that most do not 
believe the government does enough to promote 
democratization, the rule of law, and a fair system of 
justice.  Rather, they seem to believe that the grievances 
they hold today are essentially those which first sparked 
violence fourteen years ago. 
 
5.  (C)  With no generally recognized channel of 
communication with the central government and a system of 
patronage that does not seem to reach all sectors of Ma an's 
conservative society, people there will continue to feel 
isolated and resentful of governmental operations nationally, 
Braizat posited.  He suspects that if the trend of general 
dissatisfaction with community-government relations and the 
perceived lackluster performance of MPs continues, Jordan 
could see "more Ma ans" in the future.  In particular, he 
points to the Bani Hamida community in central, rural Jordan, 
as the most likely new candidate for unrest in the next two 
years.  While dissatisfaction does not necessarily mean 
violence is likely, Braizat did suggest that the same 
conditions exist today between Bani Hamida and the government 
as they did between Ma an and Amman.  (Comment:  An academic 
told PolCouns recently that the Bani Hamida had elected three 
young and well educated MPs, and he expected that they would 
press Bani Hamida interests in Parliament -- perhaps reducing 
some of this pressure.  End Comment.) 
 
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Popular Concerns 
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6.  (C)  In general, according to Braizat, the optimism that 
greeted the ascension of King Abdullah II in 1999 has faded. 
Also in decline is the percentage of people who feel their 
civil and political rights are safeguarded by the state 
(hovering around 15 percent).  The vast majority of 
Jordanians, he said, feel that their fiscal contributions to 
the government benefit an elite 10 percent of the population. 
 In addition, Braizat said most people report eroding respect 
for the institutions of governance since the early 1990s: 
for example, more than 50 percent of the population believe 
it is difficult to find justice in Jordanian courtrooms.  The 
population also feels its government has corrupted and 
systematically undermined Parliament through rewarding MPs 
with automobiles and other fringe benefits, Braizat claimed. 
 
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The Persistence of the Political System 
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7.  (C)  Foreign aid programs, argued Braizat, are failing to 
create a new democratic structure for Jordan; rather, they 
reinforce "authoritarian patterns."  In terms of the King's 
own approach to development in tribal areas, Braizat 
criticized the government's distribution of money to satisfy 
short-term "begging letters" (individual and tribal petitions 
to the King) from Bedouins and instead advocated a more 
sustainable approach to development in those areas of the 
country most dependent on governmental support. 
 
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Parliamentary Blocs 
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8.  (C)  According to polling done in the past, Braizat found 
15 percent of Jordanians feel the Islamic Action Front (IAF) 
represents their political, social, and economic aspirations. 
 The next most popular party, former Parliament speaker Abdul 
Hadi Majali's Constitutional Bloc, garnered only one percent. 
 The remaining 74 percent of the population is tribal in its 
orientation and represents a significant swing-vote for 
Jordanian lawmakers. 
 
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Mechanisms of Governance 
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9.  (C)  Braizat's polling data suggests that while 
Jordanians are on the whole dissatisfied with certain aspects 
of their political system, they are eager to work within it 
to produce change.  Citizens are less impressed with 
individual political actors then with their Parliament and 
other mechanisms of governance. 
 
10.  (C)  That said, he believes that the large number of 
laws promulgated by the government (including 17 in the days 
before parliamentary elections), appointment of half of city 
council members, and other government steps contribute to the 
popular perception that Jordan is "half-democratic."  He 
concluded that transparency and accountability are not only 
necessary in Jordanian politics today, but are also 
increasingly demanded by a frustrated population. 
 
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Comment 
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11.  (C)  As the war in Iraq recedes and the Middle East 
peace process shows signs of real progress (especially a 
reduction of violence in the West Bank), many Jordanians are 
likely to focus on concerns even closer to home such as the 
economy and political participation.  Breizat's unreleased 
polling research confirms what we are hearing anecdotally 
from a growing number of our contacts -- members of 
Parliament, political analysts, pundits, and the press:  that 
Jordanians want to feel more included in the process of 
government.  Several MPs and senior staff at the Palace have 
mentioned to us recently their recognition of a growing 
popular desire for more democracy.  Whether the government 
and Palace respond with concrete progress remains to be seen, 
but the return of Parliament is a good first step. 
 
12.  (C)  The opening of Parliament has already widened the 
space for political discourse in Jordan.  Along with this 
increase in politics is likely to come an increase in the 
number and volume of gripes and complaints against the 
government.  The government will have to thicken its skin to 
this noise if it is going to pursue greater participation. 
GNEHM