US embassy cable - 99DAMASCUS239

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 000239 
 
NICOSIA FOR ILMG 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/09 
TAGS:  PGOV, ECON, SY 
SUBJECT:  BASHAR CONTACT SAYS ASAD'S SON HAS "INDEPENDENT" 
          INFLUENCE OVER ARMY; ADMITS REGIME IGNORANT 
          ON ECONOMIC ISSUES 
 
REF:  (A) DAMASCUS IIR 6 891 0060 99 (B) 98 DAMASCUS 7639 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR RYAN C. CROCKER.  REASON 1.5 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
BASHAR KNOCKING HEADS IN THE MILITARY 
------------------------------------- 
 
1.  (C)  ONE OF OUR CONTACTS WHO SEEMINGLY HAS OPEN CHANNELS 
OF COMMUNICATION TO PRESIDENTIAL SON BASHAR AL-ASAD (AND AN 
APPARENT AGENDA TO HIGHLIGHT THE REALITIES OF HIS 
ASCENDANCE), PROVIDED NEW EVIDENCE OF HIS MENTOR'S 
CREDENTIALS ON JANUARY 11. 
 
-- THE CASE OF BASHIR NAJJAR, FORMER GID CHIEF WHO WAS 
DISMISSED LAST JULY, HAS BEEN REFERRED TO COURT FOR 
PROSECUTION, APPARENTLY FOR CORRUPTION. 
 
-- SMI IS SLOWLY BUT THOROUGHLY BEING CLEANSED OF SMI CHIEF 
`ALI DUBA'S MEN, WHO ARE PEPPERED THROUGHOUT THE 
ORGANIZATION.  THE LATEST AND MOST VISIBLE EXAMPLE WAS AHMAD 
`ABUD, WHO OUR SOURCE SAID WAS ONE OF SYRIA'S MOST POWERFUL 
MILITARY MEN SIX YEARS AGO (IN CHARGE OF PERSONNEL 
ASSIGNMENTS).  THREE YEARS AGO, HOWEVER, `ABUD WAS STRIPPED 
OF REAL AUTHORITY, AND FINALLY, IN JANUARY, BASHAR ORDERED 
HE BE KICKED OUT OF THE MILITARY COMPLETELY. 
 
-- UP TO A "DOZEN OFFICERS" HAVE BEEN ARRESTED IN THE PAST 
TWO MONTHS AT BASHAR'S BEHEST.  THESE ARRESTS HAD NOTHING TO 
DO WITH THE ATTACKS ON THE EMBASSY, RATHER THEY WERE 
INTENDED TO SHOW INTOLERANCE FOR CORRUPTION (NOTE:  AND 
APPARENTLY TO DEMONSTRATE BASHAR'S "TOUGH GUY" CREDENTIALS). 
AMONG THOSE ARRESTED, THE HEAD OF SMI'S ADMINISTRATIVE 
MISSIONS OFFICE (IDARAT AL-MUHIMMAT), ANOTHER OFFICER 
IDENTIFIED AS HASAN AL-`ALI (NOTE:  EMBASSY HOLDINGS 
IDENTIFY HIM AS THE COMMANDER OF THE ELECTRONIC WARFARE 
ACADEMY, A REPORT WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH REF A INDICATIONS 
THAT THIS INDIVIDUAL HAS BEEN "REMOVED" FROM HIS JOB), AND 
ANOTHER OFFICER IDENTIFIED AS H. `ABBAS.  (NOTE:  WE WILL 
ATTEMPT TO INDEPENDENTLY CONFIRM THESE REPORTS OF ARRESTS.) 
 
-- THE HOUSE DEMOLITIONS (REF B) IN SLUNFE AND YA`FUR WERE 
ENTIRELY BASHAR'S INITIATIVE. 
 
2.  (C)  ANOTHER SOURCE WITH EXCELLENT CONNECTIONS IN THE 
MILITARY TOLD EMBOFFS JANUARY 13 THAT ALL OF SYRIA'S SENIOR 
MILITARY LEADERSHIP PAST RETIREMENT AGE (E.G., `ALI DUBA, 
MUSTAFA TALAS), WILL BE REPLACED BY NEXT JULY (IN THE NEXT 
ROUND OF PROMTOIONS/RETIREMENTS).  OUR SOURCE SAID THE 
CHANGES WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT AND UNPARALLELED.   HE SAID 
THAT, ALTHOUGH ARMY CHIEF OF STAFF `ALI `ASLAN HAD BEEN 
GRANTED AN EXTENSION, HE TOO WOULD BE GONE BY JULY.  THIS 
SOURCE SAID THERE HAD BEEN GREAT SURPRISE (AMONG THE 
MILITARY) AT THE LARGE NUMBER OF YOUNGER OFFICERS WHO WERE 
FORCED OUT THIS ROUND, AND IMPLIED IT WAS BECAUSE THEY WERE 
NOT A GOOD FIT WITH BASHAR. 
 
LEADERSHIP'S ECONOMIC BLINDERS 
------------------------------ 
 
3.  (C) OUR FIRST CONTACT ALSO CONFIRMED OUR LONG-HELD 
SUSPICION THAT THE SYRIAN LEADERSHIP HAS NO REAL SENSE OF 
THE ECONOMIC REALITIES OF THE COUNTRY.  HE SAID THAT, PARTLY 
PRODDED BY DISCUSSIONS WITH ECONCHIEF (ABOUT THE EMBASSY'S 
DRAFT REPORT ON SYRIA'S ECONOMY IN 1997/98), HE APPROACHED 
SENIOR "POLITICAL" FIGURES (NOTE:  USUALLY BASHAR) TO 
COMPLAIN THAT SARG DATA IS NOT A COGENT BASIS FOR ECONOMIC 
ANALYSIS.  HE WAS APPARENTLY GIVEN THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE 
HIS CASE ON THIS POINT AND PROVIDE SUGGESTIONS FOR 
IMPROVEMENT.  THE CONTACT ALSO SAID HE WAS AUTHORIZED TO 
PROVIDE FURTHER DATA TO ENHANCE THE DRAFT EMBASSY REPORT. 
(COMMENT:  WHILE WORTH PURSUING, WE EXPECT SARG STONEWALLING 
IF WE REQUEST INFORMATION ON MILITARY EXPENDITURES, OIL 
INCOME, OR OFFICIAL RESERVES.) 
 
4.  (C)  THE PREVIOUS DAY, THE CONTACT HAD ADVISED THAT THE 
GOVERNMENT WOULD TAKE UMBRAGE AT THE EMBASSY'S 
(UNCLASSIFIED) ANALYSIS, BECAUSE IT WOULD BE SEEN AS AN 
"OFFICIAL" CRITICISM OF SYRIA'S ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE.  SHE 
PROTESTED THAT THE GOVERNMENT MUST UNDERSTAND THAT EMBASSIES 
ARE EXPECTED TO PREPARE A BARE MINIMUM OF OBJECTIVE ECONOMIC 
REPORTING -- AND SAID SHE HAD MADE VERY CLEAR TO SARG 
CONTACTS THAT SHE WOULD CONSIDER AMENDING HER REPORT IF THEY 
AGREED TO BACK UP THEIR ASSERTIONS WITH HARD DATA.  OUR 
CONTACT SHOOK HIS HEAD, SAYING "THE SARG DOES NOT UNDERSTAND 
THAT ANY BUSINESSMEN OR ACADEMIC WOULD HAVE ANY NEED FOR 
SUCH REPORTS."  ECONCHIEF PERSISTED, WONDERING HOW THE SARG 
COULD FEIGN DISPLEASURE WHEN MOST OF SYRIA'S ECONOMIC 
SHORTCOMINGS (AND ITS STATISTICAL REPORTING) WERE 
HIGHLIGHTED EACH YEAR IN THE IMF'S ARTICLE IV REPORT.  HE 
LAUGHED AT OUR NAIVETE AND SAID THAT THE SENIOR LEADERSHIP 
MAKES NO EFFORT TO READ, MUCH LESS UNDERSTAND, THE IMF 
REPORTS, WHICH WERE TOO LONG.  GETTING THEIR ATTENTION FOR 
HIS OWN ENDEAVOR, THEREFORE, HE FELT, WAS SOMETHING OF A 
MIRACLE. 
 
 
CROCKER