US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA1981

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 001981 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, KDEM, GT 
SUBJECT: POLITICAL TENSIONS RELATED TO RIOS MONTT'S 
CANDIDACY SUBSIDE 
 
REF: GUATEMALA 1952 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affairs David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and ( 
d). 
 
1. (SBU) Following the Constitutional Court's controversial 
July 30 decision to order the Supreme Electoral Tribunal 
(TSE) and Registry of Persons to register FRG leader Efrain 
Rios Montt as a presidential candidate in the November 
elections (reftel), the political opposition and civil 
society groups have changed their strategy from opposing Rios 
Montt's candidacy in the courts to a strategy of getting out 
the anti-Rios Montt vote on election day.  Two political 
parties (the UNE and Partido Patriota) filed motions with the 
TSE calling on it to disqualify Rios Montt's candidacy, but 
 
SIPDIS 
the action was largely symbolic as the TSE has already made 
it clear it will not go against the instructions of the 
Constitutional Court.  Editorials in all the leading 
newspapers focused on the importance of educating voters 
about the ills of keeping the FRG in power, and tacitly 
accepted that Rios Montt is now a candidate and the decision 
will be made at the ballot box. 
 
2. (U) In statements to the press, OAS Election Monitoring 
Mission Chief, Former President of Peru Valentin Paniagua 
called on all sides to refrain from electoral violence, 
saying that the events of July 24-25 only cloud the process 
of free and fair elections.  When questioned about the 
Constitutional Court's decision to allow Rios Montt to be a 
candidate, Paniagua responded that the Mission would not 
comment on the legal qualifications of any candidate as that 
was up to Guatemalan courts to decide. 
 
3. (C) Paniagua's deputy, Moises Benamor, told us that the 
Mission was in contact with numerous political sectors on 
July 31, and all had come around to accepting, however 
reluctantly, the Constitutional Court's decision.  He said 
that at the July 31 meeting of the OAS-sponsored Forum of 
Political Parties, the opposition parties did not discuss 
challenging the finding of the Constitutional Court, and 
spent most of the session discussing ways to bring the FRG 
back into the forum (Note: opposition party reps expelled the 
FRG from the forum after the FRG-led violent protests of July 
24-25. End note).  Benamor told us that there were reports 
that some in the Supreme Court were upset about the 
Constitutional Court's decision, but had not been able to 
come up with a legal strategy to challenge it.  Benamor's 
assessment was that the phase for challenging Rios Montt's 
candidacy in the courts was now effectively over, and that 
all sides would focus on winning votes. 
 
4. (C) Comment: Avenues for prolonging the constitutional 
challenge to Rios Montt's presidential candidacy were 
effectively closed by the Constitutional Court's July 30 
decision, and the registration of his candidacy by the 
Supreme Electoral Tribunal on July 31.  While procedural 
challenges, like the ones filed by UNE and the Partido 
Patriota, may continue to crop up, all sides now recognize 
that Rios Montt will be a candidate and the battle will take 
place on election day. 
LINDWALL