US embassy cable - 03ANKARA4862

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 004862 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY: RESIGNATIONS THROW OPPOSITION CHP FOR A 
LOOP 
 
 
REF: ANKARA 4787 
 
 
(U) Classified by Acting Political Counselor Nicholas S. 
Kass. Reason 1.5 (b,d) 
 
 
1. (C) Two M.P.s from the main opposition, Establishment 
standard-bearer CHP resigned over the party's negative stance 
on the "re-integration" law -- designed to coax PKK/KADEK 
militants down from the mountains of n. Iraq -- which 
Parliament passed July 29 (reftel).  Cemal Kaya and Nezir 
Nasiroglu -- from Southeastern provinces Agri and Batman, 
respectively -- explained publicly that they were "uneasy" 
with CHP's policies on Kurdish issues.  Nasiroglu added that 
the party's stance "is not in line with the principles of 
democracy or with the promises I made to my people."  Kaya, 
meanwhile, has already suggested that he is considering 
joining the ruling AK Party. (Note: AK recently acquired 
former independent deputy Sabahattin Ceveri from Sanliurfa, 
bringing the AK total number of seats in Parliament to 366 -- 
one shy of the two-thirds necessary to change the 
constitution.  End note) 
 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Views From Both Sides of the Tracks... 
-------------------------------------- 
 
 
2. (C) In a private conversation Aug. 1, CHP Hakkari M.P. 
Esat Canan told poloff that more resignations from his party 
could follow.  He railed against CHP for failing to support 
the "re-integration" law, adding that he and some of his 
Southeastern colleagues are considering leading an internal 
opposition when Parliament reconvenes in October.  But, he 
said, "if CHP cannot support democracy and social peace, then 
there may not be a reason for me to stay."  He acknowledged 
that, as it stood, the law may not bring large numbers of 
PKK/KADEK militants down from the mountains, but that it 
represented an important step.  He allowed that AK may not 
have been "strong enough" to overcome Establishment 
resistance to the more comprehensive law he would have 
preferred. 
 
 
3. (C) CHP deputy and Foreign Affairs Committee member Hasim 
Oral offered Aug. 1 a strikingly different opinion of the 
resignations and "re-integration law."  (Note: Oral hails 
from Denizli in the Aegean region -- long a bastion of the 
political Establishment/center-left. End note)  Oral claimed 
that the resignations "will not weaken the party; they will 
strengthen it" by culling disgruntled deputies.  He further 
argued that "none of his constituents wants an amnesty (sic) 
for the terrorists." 
 
 
--------------------- 
...And From the Bench 
--------------------- 
 
 
4. (C) Constitutional Court Justice Hasim Kilic, a leading 
advocate of comprehensive reform, explained to us privately 
Aug. 1 that CHP has only itself to blame for its present 
problems.  CHP is creating an image as an unprincipled and 
out-of-touch party by appearing to oppose, or only 
begrudgingly to accept after much hand-wringing, "everything" 
-- every pro-democracy reform that comes down the pike.  He 
said CHP is behaving as if its sole job is simply to gainsay 
everything the AK Government does even when the Government is 
doing the right thing.  This turns off the voters, he said. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Party of Ataturk, "Freak of Nature" -- or Both? 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
 
5. (C) The resignations have sparked a round of negative 
press coverage against the "Party of Ataturk" by 
Establishment journalists frustrated with CHP leader Deniz 
Baykal's perceived tactical fecklessness, lack of vision, and 
flaccid poll numbers.  Columnist Erdal Safak, writing in the 
lead editorial in the August 1 edition of the mass daily 
"Sabah,"  described CHP as a "freak of nature" with "tragic" 
policies and prospects. 
 
 
6. (C) Recently, Kemal Dervis, in whom so many CHP voters had 
invested their hopes, has been making noises about internal 
reform and hinting at eventually challenging Baykal for 
leadership of the party.  To do so, however, would require 
Dervis to energize the party by reconsidering his often 
uncritical public support for Kemalist equities -- something 
he has so far been loath to do (septel).  It is clear that 
until CHP can make major changes, its prospects making a run 
for it against the ruling AK in future elections will remain 
dim. 
DEUTSCH