US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA1952

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 001952 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, PHUM, KJUS, KDEM, GT 
SUBJECT: RIOS MONTT REGISTERED AS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE 
 
REF: GUATEMALA 1944 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affiars David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and ( 
d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: FRG leader Efrain Rios Montt was registered 
as a presidential candidate on July 31, following a ruling by 
the Constitutional Court ordering the electoral institutions 
to carry out its decision to that effect of July 14 and void 
all appeals.  Opposition and civil society leaders called the 
decision "illegitimate" and "the beginning of electoral 
fraud," and presidential candidates called on the people to 
defeat Rios Montt at the ballot box.  OAS Electoral 
Observation Mission reps expect the decision to put an 
effective end to legal challenges to Rios Montt's candidacy. 
While recognizing the lack of transparency of the decision, 
the OAS reps did not question its constitutionality.  With 
the standoff over Rios Montt's participation in the elections 
now, apparently, resolved, attention will shift from the 
courts to the campaign trail.  End summary. 
 
2. (U) On July 30, the Constitutional Court ordered the 
Registry of Persons and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal to 
enforce its decision of July 14, allowing the registration of 
former General Efrain Rios Montt as a presidential candidate 
in the upcoming elections.  The decision of the high court 
further instructed the Supreme Court to dismiss all appeals 
against this ruling, and to not accept further appeals which 
would frustrate the ruling of the Constitutional Court.  The 
Constitutional Court ordered the lower courts to comply with 
this decision within twelve hours. The Supreme Electoral 
Tribunal and Registry of Persons convened during the night of 
July 30 to carry out its instruction.  Rios Montt was given 
his credentials as a presidential candidate before the 6 a.m. 
deadline. 
 
3. (U) Opposition and civil society leaders immediately 
criticized the court's decision.  The decision was described 
as "partisan" and "illegitimate" by practically all 
opposition leaders quoted in the press, and some called it 
"the beginning of electoral fraud."  GANA presidential 
candidate Oscar Berger told reporters that "the resolution 
may be legal, but it is illegitimate.  Our strategy should be 
to win at the ballot box on November 9."  Presidential 
candidates Bueso and Paiz said that the decision was a bad 
one, but said it had to be accepted ("acatado").  Others in 
civil society argued that the ruling was unconstitutional, 
and that no one was obligated to carry out illegal orders. 
 
4. (C) Members of the Dialogue Group (made up of Ambassadors 
of donor nations and heads of international organizations and 
international financial institutions) were meeting at the 
time the Constitutional Court's decision was announced.  The 
unexpected decision by the court was viewed across the board 
as a manipulation by the FRG, but there was a consensus that 
resolving the issue once and for all -- even in Rios Montt's 
favor -- did less violence to the electoral process than the 
possibility of endless appeals and potential legal actions 
against other candidacies. 
 
5. (C) OAS Election Observation Mission member Moises Benamor 
told us on the evening of July 30 that they believe the 
Constitutional Court's decision will effectively put an end 
to legal challenges to Rios Montt's candidacy.  While there 
are other appeals that could be filed and courts that may be 
prepared to accept them, the Constitutional Court's decision 
will put Rios Montt on the ballot and will deprive further 
appeals of their basis in law.  Benamor believes the Court's 
finding will increase the level of political tension and 
distrust in the electoral process, but stopped short of 
questioning its constitutionality. 
 
6. (SBU) The Constitutional Court's unexpected July 30 ruling 
came about when the FRG filed a motion calling on the high 
court to enforce its ruling of July 14.  To hear this 
request, the Court held a lottery (note: there is some debate 
about the transparency of this lottery. End note) to select 
an alternate justice to replace recused judge Saul Dighero. 
Francisco Palomo (an FRG loyalist) was selected  (Note: 
Anti-FRG justices had been selected in the two previous 
lotteries.  With two out of five alternate magistrates being 
supporters of the FRG, it was only a matter of time before a 
lottery selected one of them, giving Rios Montt a 3-to-2 
majority. End note).  This newly conformed Court voted to 
have the original members who issued the July 14 decision 
resolve the FRG's request to have its decision enforced. 
Predictably enough, they voted to order the Supreme Electoral 
Tribunal and Registry of Persons to implement their decision. 
 
7. (U) There has been little popular reaction to this latest 
development.  News reports claim that FRG leaders met at the 
Presidential Palace on the night of July 30 to celebrate. 
There were also unconfirmed reports of small numbers of FRG 
supporters gathered at the Supreme Electoral Tribunal on the 
morning of July 31 to celebrate.  There have been no reports 
of opposition protests. 
 
8. (C) Comment:  As one presidential candidate told 
reporters, "nothing should surprise us anymore."  The legal 
actions for and against Rios Montt's candidacy have broken 
new ground and stretched the interpretations of Guatemala's 
constitution in precedent-setting ways.  Those who have used 
the courts to challenge Rios Montt's candidacy can be 
expected to continue seeking legal avenues for their appeal. 
However, the Constitutional Court's decision will effectively 
move the debate from the legal arena to the campaign trail. 
LINDWALL