US embassy cable - 98JEDDAH1247

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 JEDDAH 001247 
 
CENTCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
PARIS FOR LEAF; LONDON FOR SUTPHIN 
 
E.0. 12958: DECL: 12/09/08 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, ECON, PHUM, SOCI, PREL, SA 
SUBJECT: JEDDAH OBSERVERS ON THE MAN WHO WOULD BE KING 
 
REF: (A) JEDDAH 1136 (B) JEDDAH 1116  (C) JEDDAH 360 
 
 
1.  (U)  CLASSIFIED BY CONSUL GENERAL STEPHEN W. BUCK, 
REASON 1.5 (D). 
 
2.  (C)  SUMMARY: DURING RECENT VISIT BY RIYADH 
POLCOUNS, JEDDAH POLITICAL SCIENTISTS AND JOURNALISTS 
VIGOROUSLY DISCUSSED ROYAL JOCKEYING FOR POWER AND THE 
CROWN PRINCE'S ROLE AND PROSPECTS.  LIKE SO MANY 
SAUDIS, MOST SEE HIM AS THE COUNTRY'S GREAT HOPE, A 
GOOD MAN WHO WILL DEAL WITH INCREASINGLY PRESSING 
PROBLEMS.  MANY SEE THE JOCKEYING FOR POWER BETWEEN 
KING FAHD'S SUDAYRI BROTHERS AND THEIR ALLIES AND THE 
CROWN PRINCE AS ON-GOING AND BYZANTINE. ONE VOCAL 
OBSERVER ARGUED THAT CP ABDULLAH WILL BE BLOCKED AT 
EVERY TURN AND MAY NOT LIVE LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE A 
DIFFERENCE OR EVEN, PERHAPS, LONG ENOUGH TO BE KING. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
3.  (C)  OVER DINNER CG HOSTED FOR JEDDAH POLITICAL 
SCIENCE PROFESSORS AND AN OUTSPOKEN ECONOMIST WHO IS A 
TV PERSONALITY, AND IN MEETINGS WITH OTHER SAUDI 
POLITICAL OBSERVERS IN JEDDAH, INCLUDING TWO TOP SAUDI 
JOURNALISTS, VISITING RIYADH POLCOUNS GOT AN EARFUL OF 
VIEWS, RUMORS AND SPECULATION ON THE CROWN PRINCE, 
HIS FUTURE AND HIS CRITICAL ROLE IN DEALING WITH 'HE 
COUNTRY'S MOUNTING ILLS.  WE REPORT THESE NOT BECAUSE 
THEY ARE NECESSARILY INSIDERS' VIEWS OF WHAT IS GOING 
ON AT THE TOP, BUT BECAUSE THESE INTERLOCUTORS ARE THE 
SAUDI VERSION OF POLITICAL OBSERVERS IN THIS HIGHLY 
CONTROLLED SOCIETY AND BECAUSE WE SUSPECT THEIR VIEWS 
REFLECT THOSE OF A MUCH WIDER EDUCATED SAUDI AUDIENCE 
ABOUT THE CROWN PRINCE, HIS PROSPECTS, AND THE 
CHALLENGES HE FACES. 
 
 
IMPRESSIONS OF THE CROWN PRINCE DURING HIS TRIP 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
4.  (S)  A NUMBER OF THESE JEDDAH OBSERVERS TOLD CG, 
RIYADH POLCOUNS, AND POLECONOFF THAT THEY HAD HEARD 
THAT AMERICANS DID NOT HAVE A POSITIVE IMPRESSION OF 
CROWN PRINCE ABDULLAH BEFORE HIS TRIP TO THE U.S. 
POLCOUNS DENIED THIS, SAYING THAT THE CROWN PRINCE MADE 
A FAVORABLE IMPRESSION IN THE U.S. DURING HIS TRIP, 
INCLUDING VERY SUCCESSFUL MEETINGS WITH THE PRESIDENT, 
THE VICE PRESIDENT, AND THE SECRETARY OF STATE.  ARAB 
NEWS EDITOR-IN-CHIEF AND GADFLY KHALED AL-MAEENA, WHO 
ACCOMPANIED THE CROWN PRINCE THROUGHOUT HIS WORLD TRIP, 
NOTED THAT THE CROWN PRINCE ADMITTED OPENLY THAT HE WAS 
A SALESMAN FOR HIS COUNTRY--A BIG CHANGE FOR ABDULLAH. 
AL-MAEENA SAID THE CROWN PRINCE WAS VERY BUSINESSLIKE 
THROUGHOUT THE TRIP. WHILE HE DELIGHTED IN VISITING 
SHOPPING MALLS DURING HIS STAY IN HAWAII, HE ALSO KEPT 
HIS ADVISORS BUSY WRITING BRIEFING PAPERS IN 
PREPARATION FOR THE ASIAN PART OF HIS TRIP. 
 
 
LONGEVITY OF THE KING - AND THE CROWN PRINCE 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (S)  IN LIVELY AND AT TIMES HEATED DISCUSSION AT 
THE CG'S RESIDENCE, FOUR SAUDI POLITICAL SCIENTISTS AND 
ONE ECONOMIST SPECULATED ON THE CROWN PRINCE'S CHANCES 
TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN DEALING WITH SAUDI ARABIA'S 
MOUNTING PROBLEMS. MOST FELT THAT ABDULLAH IS IN 
EXCELLENT PHYSICAL SHAPE FOR A MAN HIS AGE AND HAS A 
GOOD CHANCE FOR A LONG TENURE IN OFFICE, DURING WHICH 
HE CAN MAKE THE NECESSARY REFORMS WHICH WILL LEAD THE 
KINGDOM INTO THE NEXT CENTURY.  THE SOLE ECONOMIST, 
ALSO A TV COMMENTATOR, ARGUED VIGOROUSLY AND SOMETIMES 
BELLIGERENTLY THAT KING FAHD MAY CONTINUE TO REIGN (BUT 
NOT RULE) FOR ANOTHER TEN YEARS WITH THE HELP OF MODERN 
MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY, AND THAT EVEN IF ABDULLAH BECOMES 
KING, HE MAY ONLY HAVE A THREE TO FOUR YEAR TENURE--NOT 
ENOUGH TO ENACT SUBSTANTIVE REFORMS. 
 
 
KEEPING THE KING AROUND 
----------------------- 
 
6. (S) IN SEPARATE CONVERSATIONS BOTH AL-MAEENA AND A 
RETIRED SENIOR SAUDI OFFICIAL TOLD US THAT IT WAS KING 
FAHD'S SUDAYRI BROTHERS AND HIS IN-LAWS (THE HIGHLY 
CORRUPT IBRAHIMS) WHO CONVINCED KING FAHD NOT TO RETIRE 
AFTER HE HAD HANDED OVER POWER TO CP ABDULLAH AFTER HIS 
STROKE.  AL-MAEENA CLAIMED THAT NOT LONG AGO FAHD AGAIN 
WANTED TO ABDICATE BUT THE CLOSE FAMILY AROUND HIM 
ENSURED THIS DID NOT HAPPEN. 
 
 
STRONG RULER OR "RUBBER STAMP"? 
------------------------------- 
 
7.  (S)  MOST OF THESE POLITICAL OBSERVERS TOLD US 
ABDULLAH IS A STRONG RULER WHO IS GOOD FOR THE COUNTRY, 
WILL REIGN IN THE MUTAWWA, CRACK DOWN ON EXCESSES, AND 
BRING THE COUNTRY INTO THE 21ST CENTURY.  ECHOING WHAT 
WE HAVE WIDELY HEARD, ONE OBSERVER SAID THE CROWN 
PRINCE COMMANDS RESPECT THAT FAHD DOES NOT.  THE 
RETIRED SENIOR OFFICIAL WAS UPBEAT ON THE CROWN 
PRINCE'S POTENTIAL, AND PREDICTED THAT ABDULLAH WILL 
GIVE WOMEN THE RIGHT TO DRIVE.  ON SUCCESSION, HE 
DISCOUNTED REPORTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHO WILL BE 
ABDULLAH'S CROWN PRINCE, SAYING IT WOULD DEFINITELY BE 
PRINCE SULTAN. 
 
8.  (S)  THE ECONOMIST/TV COMMENTATOR WAS ADAMANT IN 
CALLING ABDULLAH A "RUBBER STAMP," CONTENDING THE CROWN 
PRINCE DOES NOT MAKE DECISIONS ON HIS OWN BUT IS MOSTLY 
CARRYING OUT THE ADVICE OF HIS CONSULTANTS. FOR 
EXAMPLE, THE ECONOMIST ASSERTED THAT ABDULLAH'S 
WASHINGTON ENERGY INITIATIVE COULD NOT HAVE BEEN HIS 
OWN IDEA, SINCE HE LACKED TECHNICAL COMMAND OF THE 
ISSUE. TYING IN WITH THIS LINE OF REASONING, OTHER 
JEDDAH OBSERVERS CLAIMED THAT SENIOR PALACE OFFICIALS 
NOWAISSER AND ANGARI NOW PLAY A KEY ROLE IN POLICY 
MAKING AND THAT THEY OFTEN CARRY OUT THE DESIRES OF 
FAHD'S CLOSE BLOOD RELATIVES AND IN-LAWS. 
 
 
ALLIES AND ENEMIES 
------------------ 
 
9. (S)  MOST OF OUR INTERLOCUTORS FELT THAT FOREIGN 
MINISTER SAUD AL-FAISAL IS A STRONG ALLY OF THE CROWN 
PRINCE ABDULLAH; ABDULLAH TRUSTS SAUD AL-FAISAL, AND 
CONSULTS WITH HIM ON FOREIGN POLICY AND OTHER MATTERS. 
THEY SAID SAUD WOULD PROBABLY LEAVE THE FOREIGN 
MINISTRY AND BECOME A ROYAL ADVISER WHEN ABDULLAH 
BECOMES KING.  THE SUDAYRI FAMILY, IN THE EYES OF THESE 
OBSERVERS, ARE MANIPULATING ABDULLAH, AND ARE VYING FOR 
POWER BEHIND THE SCENES.  ONE COMMENTATOR SAID THAT 
PRINCE NAIF IS OBSESSED WITH SECURITY, PRINCE SALMAN 
HAS HIS OWN SPIES, AND EVERYONE IN THE PALACE IS SPYING 
ON EACH OTHER.  (ACCORDING TO THIS OBSERVER, AMBASSADOR 
TO THE U.S. PRINCE BANDAR BIN SULTAN IS CALLED 
"AMERICA'S MAN", VIEWED AS A PURVEYOR FOR U.S. 
INTERESTS, AND VERY HATED HERE AND BY THE ROYAL FAMILY. 
THIS OBSERVER ALSO TERMED BANDAR A "BLACK MONKEY" WHO 
WOULD NEVER BECOME KING BECAUSE OF HIS SLAVE MOTHER.) 
 
FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGE 
------------------------ 
 
10.  (S)  THE CROWN PRINCE, ACCORDING TO JAMAL AL- 
KHASHOGGI, POLITICAL COLUMNIST FOR AL-HAYAT NEWSPAPER, 
FACES A DAUNTING FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGE IN THE MIDDLE 
EAST.  THE KINGDOM CANNOT DEPEND ON SYRIA, AND IRAQ IS 
NOT A FRIEND: IT IS HARD TO BUILD A COALITION IN THE 
ARAB WORLD TO BALANCE THE POWER OF THE ISRAELIS AND THE 
U.S.  THE CROWN PRINCE IS NOT HAPPY WITH THE CURRENT 
SITUATION IN THE ARAB WORLD: HE NEEDS STRONG NEIGHBORS, 
BUT EGYPT AND SAUDI ARABIA CANNOT FLY ALONE. 
 
11.  (S)  COMMENT/CONCLUSION: THE CROWN PRINCE HAS BOTH 
ADMIRERS AND CRITICS AMONG JEDDAH POLITICAL OBSERVERS, 
WHO ARE BRUTALLY FRANK ABOUT THEIR ASSESSMENT OF THE 
GRIM STATE OF SAUDI SOCIETY (SEPTEL) AND THE DAUNTING 
CHALLENGES ABDULLAH FACES. ALL FELT THAT THE DECISION 
PROCESS IN THE KINGDOM CRIES OUT FOR REFORMS, THAT IT 
IS FAR TOO SLOW, CUMBERSOME AND OPAQUE. ONE JOURNALIST 
ARGUED THAT THE KINGDOM NEEDS A WHITE REVOLUTION, 
SIMILAR TO THAT OCCURRING NOW IN QATAR, WITH SOMEONE 
FROM THE ROYAL FAMILY CHANGING LAWS AND THE ENTIRE 
SYSTEM.  MOST OBSERVERS IN JEDDAH HOPE THAT SOMEONE 
WILL BE CROWN PRINCE ABDULLAH.  WE DOUBT, HOWEVER, THAT 
EVEN IF HE DOES COME TO POWER SOON, HE CAN MEET EVEN 
MOST OF THEIR EXPECTATIONS. 
 
BUCK