US embassy cable - 03HARARE1534

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 HARARE 001534 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AID FOR DCHA/FFP LANDIS, CRUMBLY, MUTAMBA, 
PETERSEN 
DCHA/OFDA FOR PRATT, BARTON, MENGHETTI, BORNS, 
HALMRAST-SANCHEZ, MCCONNELL 
AFR/SA FOR COPSON, FORT, BAKER, MACNAIRN 
STATE/AF FOR RAYNOR, DELISI 
PRETORIA FOR DIJKERMAN, HELM, DISKIN, HALE 
NAIROBI FOR DEPREZ, RILEY 
LILONGWE FOR RUBEY, SINK 
LUSAKA FOR GUNTHER, NIELSON 
MAPUTO FOR POLAND, BLISS 
MASERU FOR AMB LOFTIS 
MBABANE FOR KENNA 
GABORONE FOR THOMAS, MULLINS AND DORMAN 
ROME FOR FODAG FOR LAVELLE, DAVIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID, PREL, US, ZI 
SUBJECT:  GOZ ISSUES APPEAL FOR HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 
 
REFS: (A) Harare 01316, (B) Pretoria 03546; (C) Harare 
01345 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  The Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ) has finally issued a 
formal request for humanitarian assistance to the United 
Nations (UN).  The primary request is for additional (not 
in the pipeline) food aid in the amount of 600,000 MT of 
maize to fill what the GOZ perceives to be the "food 
gap," the difference between anticipated national 
requirements and the national harvest and carryover 
stocks.  The amount of food aid the GOZ has requested is 
considerably more than that requested in the WFP's 
appeal.  Additional food-related requirements include 
supplementary and therapeutic feeding of malnourished 
children.  Agricultural-related requests include inputs 
for agricultural recovery and livestock rehabilitation, 
and irrigation infrastructure and rehabilitation.  On the 
health side, HIV/AIDS is awarded a high priority.  Within 
this sector, the GOZ is appealing for assistance for 
vaccines; drugs to combat HIV/AIDS and opportunistic 
infections, malaria, TB and other diseases; and water and 
sanitation.  Aside from some minimal support for 
livestock recovery and seeds, the only GOZ contribution 
to its own appeal would be some 284,000 Metric Tons (MT) 
of "opening stocks" and a yet to be fully budgeted amount 
of funds to continue its woefully inadequate "Public 
Works" (Cash-for-Work) program.  In a letter from the 
Ministry of Finance, the GOZ requests donors to fill the 
entire food gap, in conjunction with commercial imports. 
Humanitarian assistance for all other sectors is clearly 
expected to come from the international donor community. 
We believe the GOZ can and should be responsible for some 
of the 600,000 MT of cereal needs, either through using 
its own scarce but fungible forex resources, or by 
allowing well-heeled elements in the private sector to 
participate.   Post provides current plans and 
recommendations for the USG response to this appeal. 
 
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GOZ ISSUES APPEAL FOR 
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 
----------------------- 
 
2.  On 21 July 2003, the Minister of Finance and Economic 
Development presented the UN with the long-awaited formal 
GOZ appeal for humanitarian assistance.  The World Food 
Program (WFP) had already issued an Emergency Operation 
appeal (EMOP) for food aid from July 2003 through June 
2004 (Reftel B).  The UN Consolidated Appeal (CAP) for 
emergency humanitarian assistance has been ready for 
weeks awaiting a formal GOZ request.  In the meantime, 
donors and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have 
been attempting to plan based on "unofficial working 
estimates" to address what they perceive as a 
deteriorating humanitarian situation in country. 
 
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IT'S STILL DROUGHT 
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3.  The GOZ Appeal acknowledges that Zimbabwe is facing a 
severe crisis and that macroeconomic "challenges," lack 
of foreign exchange, a balance of payments deficit and 
high levels of inflation are factors contributing to this 
crisis.  It continues to maintain, however, that the 
government's agrarian land reform program bears no 
culpability for the country's continuing economic 
collapse and, to the contrary, remains its major strategy 
for poverty reduction in Zimbabwe. 
 
4.  More than three pages of the 20-page appeal are 
devoted to an exegesis of the series of droughts that 
Zimbabwe has experienced since 1991.  The document places 
drought, weather, and ill-timed and unpredictable rains 
front and center as the prime cause of Zimbabwe's 
troubles.  While three years of drought have eroded 
traditional coping mechanisms and while drought certainly 
played a part in last year's crisis, drought is chronic 
in certain regions of Zimbabwe and, alone, has never 
brought the country to its knees.  It is certainly not 
the sole or even primary cause of the situation in which 
Zimbabwe finds itself currently, as corroborated by the 
significantly improved harvests and food security 
conditions in many of the country's neighbors this year. 
 
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HIV/AIDS GAINS CENTER STAGE 
--------------------------- 
 
5.  For the first time, the GOZ appeal places HIV/AIDS 
center stage.  Mitigation of the impact of HIV/AIDS is 
given high priority and its invasive and debilitating 
effects on all areas and populations in Zimbabwe are 
acknowledged.  In a country where more than 30 percent of 
the sexually active adult population is infected by the 
disease, HIV/AIDS compounds the current humanitarian 
crisis at every level.  HIV/AIDS not only exacerbates 
food insecurity and decimates valuable human resources 
but is, in turn, complicated and fed by the malnutrition 
and opportunistic diseases that are byproducts of food 
insecurity.  Accordingly, this new prominence for 
HIV/AIDS in the national agenda is welcome. 
 
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THE FOOD GAP 
------------ 
 
6. The GOZ blames the delay in the release of its appeal 
on trying to come up with an accurate maize crop 
estimate.  In arriving at its estimate, the government 
has "creatively" averaged the figures from recent 
Government crop forecast assessments, the ZIMVAC and the 
FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) 
to arrive at an estimated maize crop of 900,000 MT. 
[Note:  Although similar large shortages exist for wheat, 
there is no mention of wheat balances or requirements 
throughout the entire document.  End Note.]  Against an 
estimated national maize requirement of roughly 1.9 
million MT, less estimated "opening" stocks of 284,000 MT 
(presumably including some combination of outstanding 
contracted government imports and on-going purchases of 
the domestic crop), the resulting shortfall is 710,000 
MT.  Correctly noting an estimated 120,000 MT in WFP's 
food aid pipeline (Reftel B), the Appeal, therefore, 
identifies a 600,000 MT food gap that it requests to be 
filled entirely by the international donor community. 
 
7. The only evident GOZ contribution would be the 284,000 
MT of planned imports/local purchases noted above that 
have yet to materialize, and an as yet not fully budgeted 
ZW$ 28 billion to continue its heavily criticized ZW$ 42 
billion "Publics Works" (Cash-for-Work) program over the 
coming year, with the balance ZW$14 billion being met "by 
the donor community and the private sector."  [Note: 
While the official exchange rate remains ZWD 824:USD 1, 
the parallel market rate is now 3,350:1.  End Note.] 
 
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NON-FOOD ASSISTANCE 
REQUESTED BY GOZ 
------------------- 
 
8.  The GOZ Appeal requests assistance in a number of non- 
food sectors, too.  For agriculture, the appeal requests 
support for agricultural recovery to promote "food 
sufficiency through increased production in communal, 
resettlement and commercial farming areas," pointedly 
noting prior donor discrimination in excluding the newly 
resettled farmers from international relief assistance to 
date.  The need for livestock inputs (ZW$ 120 billion), 
seeds and fertilizers for cereal and oil crops (ZW$ 758 
billion) is highlighted.   The GOZ makes a sweeping, but 
vague commitment to "fund 50 percent for the cereals, 
beef and small stock, and 30 percent of oil seeds, crops 
and horticulture."  In addition, the appeal includes a 
request for an estimated ZW$ 6.65 billion for short-, 
medium- and long-term irrigation infrastructure 
rehabilitation and development. 
 
9. Additional areas in which assistance is requested are: 
-- Malnutrition - Therapeutic and supplementary feeding, 
including vitamin supplements, in 31 districts in which 
global acute malnutrition exceeds 5 percent and/or severe 
acute malnutrition exceeds 2 percent, according to the 
recent UNICEF National Nutritional Survey results.  No 
beneficiary numbers or estimated dollar cost is indicated 
for this category of assistance. 
-- Health - Support for health facilities and initiatives 
in the form of equipment, drugs, vaccines, insecticides 
(anti-malarial) and gases that the government cannot 
import due to foreign currency constraints.  [Note: A 
long shopping list is attached to the appeal as an annex, 
including drugs for HIV/AIDS, malaria, TB and other 
diseases.]  While estimated caseloads and quantities are 
provided, no dollar costs are presented for these 
requirements either. 
-- Water and Sanitation - Rehabilitation of water 
sources, submerged boreholes and sanitary facilities 
damaged during recent heavy rains or drought as well as 
installation of water services in previously non-serviced 
areas, i.e., resettlement areas, in six provinces 
(Masvingo, Midlands, Matabeleland South and North, 
Manicaland and Mashonaland Central).  Again, while 
assistance requirements are specified, no estimated 
dollar costs are included for this category of 
assistance. 
 
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USG FOOD AID RESPONSE 
--------------------- 
 
9.  Generally, the GOZ Appeal confirms what we have known 
for some time via other recent assessments (see Reftels). 
Despite the consensus that this year's maize harvest is 
better than last year's, the overall food security 
situation in Zimbabwe will not improve significantly over 
the current marketing year.  Continued economic collapse, 
increased scarcity of food commodities and concomitant 
higher prices and profiteering will largely negate most 
benefits of the increased harvest.  In particular, the 
situation in urban areas is expected to deteriorate.  In 
the appeal, the GOZ has at least tacitly acknowledged its 
inability to import much, if any, maize in the coming 
year.  Zimbabwe's private sector has the financial 
wherewithal to fill the gap if the GOZ cannot, and the 
private sector has the motivation as the Grain Marketing 
Board farm gate price for maize has risen dramatically if 
belatedly to stimulate production and is approaching the 
regional price of maize, calculated at the parallel rate, 
which makes private sector involvement economically 
feasible.  Unless the current policy context is changed, 
however, there will be no private sector imports.  This 
would increasingly leave both urban and rural areas with 
food shortages, particularly as the hungry season 
(December 2003 - April 2004) progresses. 
 
10.  As a result, post suggests that the USG will need to 
provide food aid to Zimbabwe at a level comparable to 
that of last year, and possibly higher.  WFP's new EMOP 
includes plans to distribute approximately 450,000 MTs in 
Zimbabwe between July 2003 and June 2004, of which about 
110,000 MTs will be covered by carryover commodities from 
its previous EMOP, leaving "new" donations of 300,000 
plus MT.  We would expect the USG, through USAID/DCHA's 
Office of Food for Peace, to provide between 40 and 50 
percent of the net additional WFP requirements.  The C- 
SAFE program, which is fully funded by USAID, also plans 
to distribute an additional 100,000 MTs in rural areas 
during this period through targeted free distributions, 
food-for-work programs and supplementary feeding. 
Further, it is anticipated that C-SAFE's Market 
Intervention Pilot Program in Bulawayo will provide 
20,000 MTs of sorghum through January 2004.  Depending on 
the success of this pilot program, tonnage may be 
increased if the program continues beyond January 2004 
and expands into other urban areas. 
 
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USG NON-FOOD AID RESPONSE 
------------------------- 
 
11. The USG, through USAID/DCHA's Office for Foreign 
Disaster Assistance (OFDA), is concentrating its response 
to the humanitarian crisis in Zimbabwe in the following 
sectors: 
-- emergency nutrition interventions through therapeutic 
and supplementary feeding programs targeted at children 
under five and certain hotspots of persistently high 
malnutrition rates; 
-- agricultural inputs, particularly seeds and technical 
support, for subsistence farming in communal areas to 
foster self-sufficiency; 
-- drip irrigation projects in areas of chronic drought 
and in support of the food security needs of certain 
vulnerable populations such as HIV/AIDs-affected 
households and orphan- and elderly-headed households; 
-- support to Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), 
especially ex-commercial farm workers; 
-- rehabilitation of existing water and sanitation 
infrastructures in areas suffering most from the residual 
effects of drought; 
-- support for monitoring the humanitarian response, 
principally through non-governmental agencies, and 
including support for periodic U.N.-supported food 
security and nutrition surveys and needs assessments; and 
-- UN coordination and information dissemination for the 
greater humanitarian response through support to its 
Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 
(OCHA). 
To date, approximately US$ 6.2 million of OFDA funds have 
been programmed in FY03 in support of UN and NGO 
initiatives in these areas, with a similar amount under 
consideration for early FY04. 
 
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MISSION COMMENTS 
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12. While it is essential to provide enough resources to 
meet the humanitarian needs of the most vulnerable, it is 
also important that donors avoid giving the impression 
that they are willing to meet the entire food gap in 
Zimbabwe, and/or some of the other non-food needs listed 
in the appeal document (even for the more credible 
requests included therein).  This would seriously 
undermine our joint on-going efforts to pressure the GOZ 
to effect the policy reforms required to facilitate a 
more comprehensive and robust humanitarian response and a 
speedier transition to recovery (see Reftel C). 
 
13. The Mission believes that the set of USG food and non- 
food assistance activities outlined above satisfactorily 
meets these critical minimal relief requirements.  In 
combination with known other donor plans for humanitarian 
assistance to Zimbabwe over the current marketing year 
(especially the EU and DfID), this assistance should 
suffice in meeting this aim, at least through the end of 
the current CY (December 2003).  Post appreciates DCHA's 
continuing support in meeting these significant food and 
non-food aid requirements. 
 
14. The GOZ Appeal confirms, at least implicitly, 
government's current "bankrupt" status (although we note 
that they have found enough forex recently to purchase 
new luxury vehicles for senior GOZ officials), and its 
purported inability to respond to its citizens' 
continuing desperate plight (unlike last year, when 
government was able to muster considerable resources of 
its own for food imports).  For this reason, we believe 
that the prospect for GOZ movement on relevant policy 
issues is better than it has been in the past.  We 
believe that UN/donor pressure can best be exerted by 
limited donor response to the amount of the WFP appeal, 
thereby presenting the GOZ with clear options - use its 
own limited forex to import for the GMB, or permit the 
private sector to re-enter the grain import sector.  The 
Mission would like to use the current opportunity to 
press the dialogue on GOZ policy reform to the fullest 
extent possible (ref C).  Accordingly, the Mission does 
not wish to "broadcast" these considerable USG assistance 
plans at this time.  Post will appreciate Washington's 
continued cooperation with this request.  Sullivan