US embassy cable - 03KATHMANDU1418

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 001418 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SA/INS, SA/RA 
LONDON FOR POL/GURNEY 
NSC FOR MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/28/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PINS, CASC, NP, Maoist Insurgency 
SUBJECT: NEPAL: LAST DITCH EFFORTS TO RESUME PEACE TALKS 
LIKELY TO FAIL 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 1413 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Michael E. Malinowski for reasons 1.5 (b) and 
 (d). 
 
1.  (C) As reported in reftel, Nepal's Maoists have 
established a July 31 deadline for the Government of Nepal 
(GoN) to meet their conditions for a third round of peace 
talks.  Embassy contacts in the police concur with our 
assessment that all the preconditions will not be met, 
thereby seriously imperiling no just the peace dialogue but 
also the cease-fire.  Despite these dire predictions, the GoN 
negotiating team is attempting a last ditch effort to save 
the talks; the team is offering the Maoists the release of 
three Central Committee Members held in Kathmandu's central 
jail in exchange for talks.  The offer has been forwarded to 
the Maoist negotiation team through the peace talk 
coordinators.  A Maoist response is expected as early as 
tomorrow, July 30.  The GoN may also request former 
government negotiator, Narayan Singh Pun, to assist in 
reviving the peace talks.  He is expected to return to 
Kathmandu from London tomorrow. 
 
2.  (SBU)  Kathmandu residents are becoming increasingly 
alarmed by rumors of a Maoist offensive to strike the valley 
after July 31 deadline.  Police sources speculate that 
elements of the Maoist People's Liberation Army are actually 
mobilizing in the East and West and that any attack on 
Kathmandu Valley would serve to distract the security forces. 
 
3.  (C) Comment:  The GoN's last-minute efforts will fall 
well short of Maoist demands.  While some in the security 
forces see the benefits of preemptive action against the 
Maoists before the deadline, we believe it unlikely the GoN 
will move to break the cease-fire.  However, our concern that 
the Maoists may strike before July 31 is much higher. 
Security forces, while hopeful peace efforts will succeed, 
continue their elevated defensive posture. 
MALINOWSKI