US embassy cable - 98CARACAS3576

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 003576 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  10/29/08 
TAGS: PINR, PGOV, PREL, VE 
SUBJECT: HUGO CHAVEZ'S PLAN TO TRANSFORM VENEZUELA:  PART I 
 
REF: CARACAS 03282 
 
CLASSIFIED BY THOMAS A. SHANNON, POLITICAL COUNSELOR, REASON: 1.5 (D) 
 
------------------------ 
INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY 
------------------------ 
 
1. (U)  IN JANUARY OF THIS YEAR, HUGO CHAVEZ'S POLITICAL PARTY, THE 
FIFTH REPUBLIC MOVEMENT (MVR) PUBLISHED ITS PLAN OF ACTION 
(REFTEL).  THIS DOCUMENTED WAS UPDATED IN OCTOBER WHEN CHAVEZ 
RELEASED HIS "PLAN TO TRANSFORM VENEZUELA." 
 
2. (U)  CHAVEZ'S PLAN CONSISTS OF FIVE-PARTS: 
 
--  POLITICAL EQUILIBRIUM - THE CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY 
--  SOCIAL EQUILIBRIUM - SOCIAL JUSTICE 
--  ECONOMIC EQUILIBRIUM - COMPETITIVE, BUT HUMANE ECONOMIC PLANS 
--  TERRITORIAL EQUILIBRIUM - DECENTRALIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT 
--  GLOBAL EQUILIBRIUM - GLOBALIZATION AND SOVEREIGNTY 
 
3. (U) THIS IS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF 5 MESSAGES THAT WILL 
SUMMARIZE AND ANALYZE CHAVEZ'S PLAN.  THIS INSTALLMENT WILL EXAMINE 
CHAVEZ'S PLAN FOR A CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY (CONSTITUYENTE). 
END SUMMARY 
 
--------------------- 
POLITICAL EQUILIBRIUM 
--------------------- 
THE CALL FOR THE CONSTITUYENTE: 
------------------------------ 
 
4. (U)  CHAVEZ ARGUES THAT THE VENEZUELAN POLITICAL SYSTEM IS 
CORRUPT AND MORALLY BANKRUPT AND BLOCKS ANY EFFORT TO CHANGE IT. 
ONLY THROUGH A COMPLETE TRANSFORMATION OF THE POLITICAL SYSTEM CAN 
VENEZUELA ACHIEVE GREATNESS.  THIS TRANSFORMATION REQUIRES A NEW 
CONSTITUTIONAL ORDER, WHICH CHAVEZ PROPOSES TO ACHIEVE THROUGH A 
NATIONAL CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY (CONSTITUYENTE). 
 
5. (U)  THE CONSTITUYENTE WILL WIELD ITS TRANSFORMATIONAL POWER NOT 
JUST POLITICALLY (INSURING A REPRESENTATIVE CONGRESS), BUT ALSO 
ECONOMICALLY (INSURING A GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE ECONOMY), SOCIALLY 
(INSURING SOCIAL JUSTICE AND A CLEAN ENVIRONMENT) AND JURIDICALLY 
(INSURING AN IMPARTIAL LEGAL SYSTEM).  IN OTHER WORDS, ALL THE 
POSITIVE CHANGES ENVISIONED BY CHAVEZ ARISE FROM THE CONSTITUYENTE. 
 
 
THE CONSTITUYENTE PROCESS: 
-------------------------- 
 
6. (U)  THE PROCESS WILL CONSIST OF 5 DISTINCT PHASES:  ACTIVATION, 
CONTRACTUAL, CONVOCATION, MEETING, AND EXECUTION.  ACTIVATION WILL 
OCCUR UPON THE ELECTION OF CHAVEZ AS PRESIDENT.  THIS WILL BE 
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE CONTRACTUAL PHASE, WHEREBY PRESIDENT CHAVEZ 
CALLS FOR A POPULAR REFERENDUM.  THE CONVOCATION OF THE 
CONSTITUYENTE, PHASE 3, WILL BE THE REFERENDUM.  THE ACTUAL 
ASSEMBLY AND AGREEMENT TO THE NEW CONSTITUTION WILL BE PHASE 4, AND 
THE RATIFICATION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NEW CONSTITUTION WILL 
END THE PROCESS. 
 
7. (U)  THE CONSTITUYENTE WILL BE A UNICAMERAL, REPRESENTATIVE 
BODY, WHOSE PURPOSE IS TO CREATE A GOVERNMENT THAT "WILL FORTIFY 
AND DEVELOP THE INSTITUTIONS THAT WILL GUARANTEE PUBLIC FREEDOM, 
HUMAN RIGHTS, AND REINSTITUTE A PARTICIPATIVE SYSTEM."  THE MEMBERS 
WILL BE ELECTED BY POPULAR VOTE, AND THE NUMBER OF REPRESENTATIVES 
FOR EACH STATE WILL BE BASED ON THE POPULATION OF THAT STATE.  THE 
ASSEMBLY SHOULD HAVE REPRESENTATIVES FROM ALL WALKS OF LIFE.  NO 
REPRESENTATIVE CAN BE A CURRENT ELECTED OFFICIAL, JUDGE, OR UNION 
PRESIDENT.  FINALLY, THE MEMBERS WILL RECEIVE IMMUNITY DURING THEIR 
TENURE IN THE CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY. 
 
8. (U)  ONCE THE ASSEMBLY COMPLETES ITS DELIBERATIONS AND PREPARES 
A NEW CONSTITUTION, THE FINAL PRODUCT MUST BE APPROVED BY A SIMPLE 
MAJORITY OF VOTERS.  DURING THIS INTERIM PERIOD, THE EXISTING 
CONSTITUTION WILL REMAIN IN FORCE, UNLESS THE CONSTITUYENTE DECIDES 
OTHERWISE.  IN OTHER WORDS, IF THE CONSTITUYENTE WANTS, IT CAN 
DISSOLVE THE CONGRESS, REORGANIZE THE JUDICIARY, AND MODIFY THE 
STRUCTURE AND TERM OF OFFICE FOR THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH; IT WILL HAVE 
COMPLETE POWER.  (NOTE.  CHAVEZ HAS DENIED THAT THE CONSTITUYENTE 
WOULD HAVE ABSOLUTE POWER, BUT HAS NOT INDICATED WHAT MECHANISM 
WOULD LIMIT THE POWER OF THE CONSTITUYENTE.  END NOTE.) 
 
 
WHAT WILL THE NEW CONSTITUTION DO? 
--------------------------------- 
 
9. (U)  THE NEW CONSTITUTION WILL: 
 
--  REDEFINE THE EXECUTIVE POWERS OF THE GOVERNMENT IN A MORE 
PARTICIPATORY MANNER AND ALLOW FOR DEMONSTRATIONS OF PARTICIPATION 
IN THE FORM OF REFERENDA. 
 
--  MAKE THE JUDICIAL SYSTEM INDEPENDENT AND IMPARTIAL.  JUDGES 
WILL BE POPULARLY ELECTED, INSTEAD OF APPOINTED BY CONGRESS. 
BECAUSE THE JUDICIAL SYSTEM IS CLOGGED BY SMALL MATTERS, THE NEW 
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR ALTERNATE SETTLEMENT METHODS, SUCH AS, 
MEDIATION AND ARBITRATION. 
 
--  CREATE A TRULY REPRESENTATIVE LEGISLATIVE BRANCH THROUGH DIRECT 
ELECTIONS (PARTY LISTS AND PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION WILL BE DONE 
AWAY WITH) AND ACCOUNTABILITY THROUGH RECALL ELECTIONS. 
 
--  ESTABLISH A NEW, FOURTH BRANCH OF GOVERNMENT, THE MORAL BRANCH. 
THIS BRANCH WOULD CONSIST OF THOSE INSTITUTIONS THAT HAVE AN 
OVERSIGHT OF GOVERNMENT ROLE: THE CONTROLLER GENERAL AND THE 
ATTORNEY GENERAL.  IT WOULD ALSO REQUIRE THE CREATION OF A NEW 
OFFICER, THE OMBUDSMAN, AND A COORDINATING BODY FOR THE MINISTRY OF 
JUSTICE, SUPREME COURT, THE JUDICIAL COUNCIL, THE ATTORNEY GENERAL, 
THE CONTROLLER GENERAL, AND THE ATTORNEY GENERAL.  THE MORAL BRANCH 
WILL BE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUARANTEE OF THE DEMOCRATIC 
CHARACTER OF ORGANIZATIONS THAT INTERACT BETWEEN SOCIETY AND THE 
STATE.  THESE WOULD INCLUDE POLITICAL PARTIES, UNIONS, AND BUSINESS 
OR PROFESSIONAL ASSOCIATIONS.  IT WOULD ALSO HAVE THE 
RESPONSIBILITY TO INSURE THE PROTECTION OF HUMAN RIGHTS. 
 
 
THE ROLE OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION: 
---------------------------------- 
 
10. (U)  PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION MUST TAKE ON A WATCHDOG ROLE FOR 
SOCIETY.  IT MUST ANALYZE, PLAN, AND EVALUATE THE BEST WAY TO 
MAINTAIN PUBLIC ORDER AND WELL-BEING.  SIMULTANEOUSLY, CHAVEZ WANTS 
A DECENTRALIZED PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION WITH FEWER MINISTRIES. 
LIKEWISE, IT MUST HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION TO DEAL WITH MARKET CRASHES 
OR DETERIORATIONS OF THE BUSINESS CLIMATE. 
 
 
CONCLUSION 
---------- 
 
11.(C)  THIS FIRST PART OF CHAVEZ'S PLAN FOLLOWS CLOSELY THAT WHICH 
WAS LAID OUT IN THE MVR PLAN OF ACTION (REFTEL).  WHILE HE EXPOUNDS 
IN GREATER DETAIL HIS VISION OF THE CONSTITUYENTE, HE DOES NOT 
ADDRESS THE QUESTIONS RAISED BY HIS PROPOSAL FOR DRAMATIC 
CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE.  SPECIFICALLY, HE SIDESTEPS THE MEANS BY 
WHICH A CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY WOULD BE CONVOKED (THE CURRENT 
CONSTITUTION DOES NOT CONTEMPLATE SUCH AN ASSEMBLY), THE ROLE OF A 
REFERENDUM IN BUILDING POLITICAL SUPPORT FOR A CONSTITUTIONAL 
ASSEMBLY (THE ELECTORAL LAW PROHIBITS THE USE OF THE REFERENDUM TO 
INVALIDATE CONSTITUTIONALLY GUARANTEED RIGHTS), OR THE MEANS BY 
WHICH MEMBERS OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY WOULD BE ELECTED 
(CURRENT ELECTORAL LAW REQUIRES A MIXED SYSTEM OF DIRECT AND 
PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION).  NONE OF THESE ISSUES IS 
INSURMOUNTABLE.  A CONSTITUTIONAL MEANS TO REFORM THE CONSTITUTION 
EXISTS--THROUGH THE CONGRESS RE-WRITING THE CONSTITUTION AND THEN 
PRESENTING THE NEW CONSTITUTION TO THE PEOPLE FOR APPROVAL OR 
DISAPPROVAL IN A REFERENDUM.  FURTHERMORE, A MEANS TO ACCOMMODATE 
A CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY WITHIN THE CURRENT ORDER CAN BE 
FASHIONED--THROUGH AMENDING THE CONSTITUTION TO PERMIT THE 
CONVOCATION OF A CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY.  CHAVEZ'S UNWILLINGNESS 
TO ADDRESS THESE ISSUES IN HIS PLAN OF ACTION UNDERSCORES THE 
POLITICAL NATURE OF HIS PROPOSAL:  IT IS DESIGNED FIRST AND 
FOREMOST AS A POLITICAL MARKETING TOOL TO HIGHLIGHT HIS DESIRE TO 
COMPLETELY REFORM GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS IN VENEZUELA. 
 
 
MAISTO