US embassy cable - 03HARARE1507

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 001507 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/FO AND AF/S 
NSC FOR SR AFRICA ADVISER JENDAYII FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/25/2008 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ZI 
SUBJECT: HOW MUCH GIVE IN ZANU-PF OPENNESS TO DIALOGUE 
 
REF: A. (A) HARARE 1475 
 
     B. (B) HARARE 1491 
     C. (C) HARARE 1506 
 
Classified By: JOSEPH G. SULLIVAN FOR REASON 1.5D 
 
1.(C) Most Zimbabweans appear to have welcomed the signs of 
openness to dialogue reflected in the MDC's attendance at 
President Mugabe's July 22 speech to parliament (ref A).  MDC 
spokesmen have remained on message about their hopes that the 
gesture would open the way for serious dialogue between the 
parties to address the national crisis, despite the July 22 
arrest (for several hours) of MDC spokesman Paul Themba-Nyati 
over an MDC caricature of President Mugabe and despite 
impediments posed to registration of some MDC local 
government candidates(ref B).  President Mugabe's speech to 
the Parliament(ref C) was relatively restrained, but highly 
unrealistic. Then at a later luncheon speech that day to some 
parliamentarians and others, Mugabe was somewhat more 
explicit about his pleasure that MDC had attended the 
parliamentary session and his hope that ZANU-PF and MDC would 
work together in parliament. 
 
2.(U) The state media net also went into overdrive, lauding 
the signs of national reconciliation. Even the usually 
acid-tongued ZANU-PF International Secretary Didymus Mutasa 
said that it would be important for the two parties to work 
together to find an economic way forward.  He did not object 
to the MDC maintaining its lawsuit against the conduct of the 
2002 presidential election, but he called for the MDC to 
secure "from its handlers" the removal of economic sanctions 
against Zimbabwe" and rejected the MDC's statement that they 
would seek an honorable exit for President Mugabe.  State 
media on July 24 picked up the theme that the MDC must 
demonstrate its patriotism by securing an end to sanctions 
against Zimbabwe, while Information Minister Jonathan Moyo 
diverted from the mostly conciliatory tone by labeling the 
MDC a "hitherto treasonous party" which must stop "sabotaging 
the economy" and claiming that the public is "tired of MDC 
lies and hallucinations." 
 
3.(C) Comment:  It is too early to tell with what sincerity 
ZANU-PF is approaching the putative reconciliation with MDC. 
As a minimum, ZANU-PF wished to secure MDC's attendance in 
parliament to provide the show of honor which means so much 
to Mugabe.  The Mugabe Government also wished to alleviate 
some of the pressure it was under from South Africa and 
others to enter into dialogue with the MDC.  ZANU would also 
like MDC to share the responsibility for the economic 
hardships the populace is facing and, ideally, to use their 
international ties to relieve the pressure on Zimbabwe.  At 
this point, we are dubious that ZANU intends to give the MDC 
a genuine share of power or to enter into the sort of 
dialogue which addresses the serious issues of Mugabe's 
legitimacy and seeks a consensus formula for addressing the 
issue.  This tentative judgment could change depending on the 
amount of external pressure Mugabe comes under, particularly 
from President Mbeki who has been lionized of late in the 
state media for his advocacy of "African solutions to African 
problems" and alleged resistance to American and British 
impositions.  The rapidly unraveling economic situation will 
also put additional pressures on the GOZ, next when 
Zimbabweans are unable to access the salary deposits made in 
their bank accounts at the end of the month.  (Bankers told 
us yesterday told us they feared that riots could break out 
when the currency shortage hits even harder with the 
increased and unmeetable demand for cash from account holders 
after end-month salary deposits.) 
SULLIVAN