US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB1660

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ZAGREB 001660 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE (NARDI) 
USNATO FOR DEHART AND MOELLER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, EU, HR, NATO, Defense Reform (Mil & NATO) 
SUBJECT: POLITICS, POLITICS: AMBASSADOR'S INITIAL CALL ON 
PARLIAMENT SPEAKER TOMCIC 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Ralph Frank for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (C) The opposition-leading HDZ party will remain strong 
after parliamentary elections this November, but it will not 
be able to form a government; Croatia's next coalition 
government will be largely similar to the current lineup of 
parties, Parliament Speaker Zlatko Tomcic confidently 
predicted during his first meeting with the Ambassador. 
Tomcic declared that, right up until the beginning of the 
formal campaign period, the ruling coalition will remain 
focused on driving forward with Croatia's top policy 
priorities: integration into the EU and NATO.  The Ambassador 
applauded the coalition's consensus on key goals and 
reaffirmed U.S. support for Croatia's eventual accession into 
Euro-Atlantic institutions.  There is strong agreement within 
the international community that Croatia must continue to 
make progress on reform; concrete achievements in key areas 
will help Croatia's progress toward both NATO and the EU. 
End Summary. 
 
Tomcic: Looking Forward to Close Relationship 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) On July 22, the Ambassador paid his initial call on 
Parliament (Sabor) Speaker Zlatko Tomcic.  Tomcic was eager 
to establish a close working relationship with the Ambassador 
similar to the one he enjoyed with former Ambassador Rossin. 
Despite the formal elegance of the Sabor's reception rooms, 
Tomcic was open and informal about political challenges 
facing the coalition and his Croatian Peasants' Party (HSS). 
He apologized for not being able to meet with the Ambassador 
in the first days following his arrival in Croatia, 
explaining that official visits by two heads of state (Israel 
and Turkey) and the press of business now before the 
parliament relating to EU accession made scheduling difficult. 
 
Tomcic: We're Focused on EU/NATO Accession 
------------------------------------------ 
 
3.  (C) Tomcic declared that both the Government and the 
Parliament's majority are in full agreement on Croatia's top 
policy priorities: integration into the EU and NATO. 
Parliament passed legislation on defense reform and a law to 
restructure Croatia's intelligence services to support the 
Government's bid for NATO membership.  The process of 
bringing Croatia's legislation into line with EU standards is 
an intense, ongoing process, but the parliament's unanimous 
declaration in September 2002 supporting Croatia's membership 
application demonstrated Croatia's commitment, said Tomcic. 
He complained bitterly about the opposition's "destructive, 
selfish" actions in the last two months to boycott voting in 
the Sabor for political reasons.  Tomcic said that he is 
certain that the EU and NATO will judge Croatia's suitability 
for membership not only by formal criteria, but also by the 
behavior of the political opposition.  Fortunately, Tomcic 
pointed out, the government enjoys an extraordinary level of 
public support for its accession goals. 
 
4.  (C) Tomcic said that much of the work the parliament is 
doing to help Croatia progress towards the EU and NATO goes 
on behind the scenes, particularly its work to reach out to 
other parliaments in the region.  Croatia knows it cannot 
progress in a vacuum: a stable and prosperous Croatia can 
only exist in a stable and prosperous region.  Tomcic said 
that, since Croatia may be several steps ahead of some states 
in the region, it can serve as an example of how to move 
forward. 
 
Ambassador: Croatia Has Lots Of Work To Do 
------------------------------------------ 
 
5.  (C) The Ambassador welcomed Tomcic's commitment to EU and 
NATO membership and said that the U.S. remains committed to 
helping Croatia achieve these goals.  He hailed the broad 
support for these goals among Croatia's political leaders, 
but explained that there is also broad consensus within the 
international community that Croatia has important reform 
work still to achieve.  The international community agrees 
that for EU and NATO accession, Croatia must make concrete 
progress on key issues, including refugee return, judicial 
reform, ICTY cooperation and regional relations.  U.S. 
assistance programs are directed toward helping Croatia 
achieve these goals.  Tomcic expressed appreciation for the 
Ambassador's support and also for the significant commitment 
of U.S. assistance to Croatia since the change in government 
in January 2000. 
 
Privatization: HSS Pressing For Changes to Law 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
6.  (C) Responding to the Ambassador's question about the 
politically sensitive issue of privatization, Tomcic claimed 
that the disparity between his party's view and that of PM 
Racan's SDP has been exaggerated by Croatia's irresponsible 
media.  Under the Tudjman regime, the privatization process 
was an opportunity for "their people" to get rich by taking 
public property.  While the current government has done much 
better, Tomcic expressed regret that it has not made as much 
progress as the public had hoped.  Not a single large-scale 
privatization has taken place without "incident," Tomcic 
complained.  Tomcic said that the SDP and the HSS have now 
agreed on a way forward (according to an HSS model), and that 
a new law on privatization would be presented to parliament 
in September.  Tomcic brought up the recent privatization of 
25 percent of INA, Croatia's state-owned energy company, and 
declared that he is convinced that this process was "very 
correct," and that there would be no "dirty laundry" 
discovered, despite what might be alleged in the press. 
 
Sabor to Work Overtime to Keep Election Campaign Short 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
7.  (C) The Ambassador steered the conversation toward 
electoral politics, and asked how the parliament's work would 
be affected by the campaign.  Tomcic said that an election 
date in late November had been agreed to with key coalition 
partners, but that would not stop him from keeping the 
parliament at work.  He told the Ambassador that he had 
already announced an extraordinary session from September 9 - 
15, which means that the Sabor will be in session 
continuously until the middle of October, focused almost 
entirely on the EU accession agenda.  Tomcic expressed hope 
that the official campaign period will be kept as short as 
possible in order to keep conflicts between parties to a 
minimum and also to keep the costs of campaigning -- which 
are by law covered primarily by the state budget -- as low as 
possible. 
 
Election Prediction: Return of Our Coalition 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) Tomcic predicted that the opposition HDZ would be the 
leading vote-getter in the next election, but was confident 
that it would not be able to attract enough support from 
other parties to form a government.  The SDP would fare well, 
but would get "slightly fewer" seats in the next parliament. 
He expected his own HSS to do slightly better than the 16 
seats (about ten percent of the total) it holds in the 
current Sabor, but the Croatian People's Party (HNS) would 
also see a sharp improvement. 
 
9.  (C) Tomcic said that, since the SDP, HSS and HNS will 
probably not have quite enough seats to form an absolute 
majority, the coalition will have to rely on those MPs which 
will fall outside of the two "blocs."  Tomcic said he expects 
that the next Sabor will have as many as 15 MPs from smaller 
or regional parties, fully eight MPs representing ethnic 
minorities and perhaps four who represent Croatians abroad. 
The most complex part of forming the next government will be 
the process of bringing smaller parties into the coalition. 
Nevertheless, Tomcic is confident that there will be "no 
great changes" between the next coalition government and the 
current lineup of parties.  (Note: Uncertainty about which 
parties would form the next government has usually centered 
on the possibility that Tomcic's HSS would break with the 
current coalition and go with the HDZ -- a prospect which 
looks increasingly implausible with each passing week. End 
Note.) 
 
Next Government Must Have Stronger Coalition Agreement 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
10.  (C) Tomcic said he believes Croatia's democracy has 
developed far enough to "allow the luxury" of waiting to form 
coalitions until after elections.  The HSS will then advocate 
hammering out a strong national-level policy program in order 
to create conditions where disagreements over policy no 
longer disrupt the work of the government.  Such a program 
would mean that ICTY cooperation would not be an issue for 
debate, but an obligation of the government.  The same should 
hold true for issues relating to return of refugees and for 
working to improve relations with Serbia and Montenegro. 
 
11.  (C) The Ambassador praised Tomcic's leadership in the 
parliament and expressed his eagerness to continue a regular, 
private dialogue.  Tomcic readily accepted and proposed that 
the two meet again, more informally, toward the end of 
August, before the Sabor next convenes. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
12.  (C) Tomcic was on-message and worked hard to make a good 
impression; he clearly recognizes how important good 
relations with the U.S. are to achieving Croatia's goals.  A 
cagey, cautious politician, for Tomcic to predict a 
successful outcome of the next election with such confidence 
so far in advance is significant, even if his forecast 
largely represents the current conventional wisdom. 
FRANK 
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