US embassy cable - 03OTTAWA2091

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 002091 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CA 
SUBJECT: CANADA: DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER MANLEY DROPS OUT OF 
LEADERSHIP RACE 
 
 
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Brian Flora, 
Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (U) John Manley, Canada's Deputy Prime Minister and 
Finance Minister, withdrew from the Liberal Party leadership 
race on July 22, saying that Paul Martin's lead is 
insurmountable.  Manley said that his campaign reviewed party 
membership lists over the weekend, and determined that it 
would not have been supported by more than 15-20% of the 
delegates at party caucus meetings in September.  He endorsed 
Paul Martin's candidacy, saying that Martin will make an 
excellent Prime Minister. 
 
2. (U) Manley said that his campaign had accomplished its 
mission of putting out his message and ensuring healthy 
debate in the leadership race.  He told reporters that the 
"numbers aren't there for me this time," an indication that 
he plans to seek the leadership again in the future.  The 
only other candidate still in the race now is Heritage 
Minister Sheila Copps, who has a small core of supporters in 
the left wing of the party. 
 
3. (C) Paul Martin is expected to win an overwhelming 
majority of delegates to the party leadership convention in 
November, and to take over as Prime Minister some time 
between then and February.  Prime Minister Chretien's staff 
maintains that he will not be stepping down until February, 
but he could decide to leave earlier - perhaps after the 
December 5-8 Commonwealth Summit in Nigeria.  Martin is 
expected to seek his own mandate from the voters by calling a 
national election in Spring 2004. 
 
4. (C) COMMENT: Given the weakness of the opposition parties, 
the Liberals - Canada's only party that is truly competitive 
nation-wide at this point - are expected to win again in 
2004.  Despite Manley's strong performance in the Chretien 
Cabinet, including his oversight of U.S.-Canada border 
issues, his candidacy for the party leadership was a long 
shot from the start.  Martin, who served as Chretien's 
Finance Minister from 1993 until 2002, had a huge advantage 
in organization and funding, while Manley had little grass 
roots support outside of Ottawa.  Manley also had a difficult 
time differentiating himself from Martin; both are party 
centrists who want to keep the budget balanced and improve 
relations with the U.S. after the strains caused over Iraq. 
 
5. (C) COMMENT CONT'D:  It is unclear if Martin will keep 
Manley on in a new government.  Manley certainly would not 
remain as Deputy Prime Minister, nor would he have the vast 
portfolio he has held over the past year under Chretien.  But 
his early withdrawal from the race and endorsement of Martin 
increases his chances of being kept on in some capacity. 
CELLUCCI