US embassy cable - 03HARARE1475

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 001475 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/FO A/S KANSTEINER AND AF/S 
NSC FOR AFRICA SR DIR JENDAYII FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2008 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI, SF 
SUBJECT: MDC RELATES MORE CONTACTS ABOUT DIALOGUE 
 
 
Classified By: JOSEPH G. SULLIVAN FOR REASONS 1.5B/D 
 
 1. (C) Contacts with ZANU-PF: MDC President Morgan 
Tsvangirai and Secretary General Welshman Ncube told the 
 
SIPDIS 
Ambassador over lunch July 22 that Zanu-PF and the South 
African Government(SAG) had reached out to them recently. 
ZANU-PF Minister for Justice and Parliamentary Affairs 
Patrick Chinamasa had contacted Ncube to negotiate for the 
MDC's attendance/non-boycott of President Mugabe's July 22 
speech opening the parliamentary session.  The MDC had 
requested a number of concessions by ZANU-PF, including no 
arrests or harassment of its parliamentarians and freedom to 
campaign in late August urban council and parliamentary 
bi-elections.  MDC received sufficient assurances by late 
July 21 to agree that its MP's and even Tsvangirai (a non-MP) 
would attend the session.  The agreement came too late to 
affect ZANU-PF from blockading and preventing MDC from 
registering its local council candidates in a number of 
traditional ZANU-PF strongholds, but Tsvangirai was told that 
registration of candidates would be re-opened in these areas. 
 MDC is publicly characterizing its attendance at parliament 
as a goodwill gesture intended to facilitate dialogue and 
hopes privately that it can stimulate some positive steps 
toward dialogue on both sides.  How delicate and top-centered 
ZANU is, however, was reflected when Speaker Mnangagwa had to 
call President Mugabe personally a few minutes before the 
parliamentary session to confirm that he should issue 
invitations to Tsvangirai, even though it was Chinamasa who 
had urged Tsvangirai to attend.  Mugabe's speech was 
unremarkable and absent inflammatory rhetoric, although 
filled with delusions about the wonderful state of the 
Zimbabwean agriculture, tourism, etc. 
 
2. (C) South African Outreach: According to Ncube, the South 
African High Commissioner has also been pressing MDC and 
ZANU-PF for more progress toward dialogue.  The MDC told him 
it was ready for dialogue now without conditions. SAG HC Ndou 
also met with Minister for State Security Goche on this 
subject and Goche told Ncube on July 22 that he would be 
traveling to South Africa to meet with President Mbeki's 
people on the dialogue issue. Comment: The most encouraging 
part of the South African contacts is Goche sharing with 
Ncube about his upcoming meeting with the South Africans. End 
comment. 
 
3. (C) MDC Plans: The MDC issued a statement July 22 on his 
openness to dialogue on issues of national emergency (text 
being faxed to AF/S). The intent is to make clear that the 
burden is on ZANU to address the national crisis by entering 
into dialogue.  MDC will also work hard in late August's 
elections to demonstrate its firm hold on urban areas.  MDC 
is working on for release in the next several months a 
platform of policies in order to demonstrate that it has 
economic and political proposals for a transition or 
post-election period. The MDC will continue its 
party-building activities and its training in non-violence, 
but has no mass action activities planned for the near term. 
 
4. (C) Comment:  The MDC was clearly thrown off balance by 
its failure to organize successful demonstrations in early 
June, but it appears to have recovered its equilibrium and to 
be pursuing a more patient course.  ZANU-PF's triumphalism 
has begun to run itself out, as the country's economic and 
political crisis continues.  Whether this is the sort of 
mutually hurting stalemate that can lead to successful 
dialogue/negotiations remains to be seen, since it requires 
not only the assent of many in ZANU-PF, but also of the 
ultimate hard-liner Robert Mugabe. 
SULLIVAN