US embassy cable - 98ADDISABABA6302

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ADDIS ABABA 006302 
 
DEPT FOR AF A/S RICE, AF/E 
USAID FOR MCCALL 
NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH, JOHN PRENDERGAST 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
PARIS FOR MORAN 
ROME FOR DEMPSEY 
WINDHOEK FOR MAZEL 
ANTANANARIVO FOR KNIGHT 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  08/09/03 
TAGS:  PREL, PINS, PHUM, ET, ER 
SUBJECT:  MELES ON NEXT STEPS:  LET THINGS EVOLVE NATURALLY 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POL/ECON OFFICER JULIE B. WINN, REASON 
1.5(B,D) 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C) PRIME MINISTER MELES TOLD CHARGE AUGUST 8 THAT 
THE U.S. STATEMENT AGAINST EXPULSIONS OF ERITREANS, 
COMBINED WITH REPORTS THAT THE U.S. TOLD ISAIAS THAT 
ETHIOPIA IS TOO FRAGILE TO COMPROMISE, REFLECT ANTI- 
ETHIOPIA BIAS WITHIN INFLUENTIAL USG CIRCLES. 
ACCORDINGLY, WE SHOULD PERHAPS BACK OFF EFFORTS TO 
PREVENT WAR, SINCE THAT CAN ONLY BE DONE BY DEMANDING 
THAT ISAIAS WITHDRAW FROM BADME, AND THE U.S. DOESN'T 
HAVE THE WILL OR CAPACITY TO MAKE THAT DEMAND.  INSTEAD, 
WE SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO EVOLVE NATURALLY AND ASSESS 
WHAT WE MIGHT DO TO PICK UP THE PIECES AFTER A WAR.  WE 
THINK MELES' STARK APPRAISAL WAS IN PART FOR EFFECT AMID 
LINGERING CONCERNS ABOUT THE U.S. STATEMENT ON 
DEPORTATION.  WHEN PRESSED, HE MADE IF CLEAR THAT HE 
WOULD BE WILLING TO WORK WITH ISAIAS IF THE LATTER 
DEMONSTRATED "HE HAD LEARNED HIS LESSON."  WHILE MELES 
WAS NOT A PARAGON OF FLEXIBILITY, WE STILL NEED TO PRESS 
AHEAD WITH PEACE INITIATIVES.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) CHARGE AND POLOFF CALLEO ON PRIME MINISTER MELES 
AUGUST 8, AT EMBASSY REQUEST, PRIMARILY TO DISCUSS EVENTS 
IN THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO.  AFTER THAT 
OISCUSSION (SEPTEL), THE CONVERSATION TURNED TO THE 
ONGOING BORDER CONFLICT BETWEEN ETHIOPIA ANO ERITREA. 
 
---------------------- 
WHERE TO GO FROM HERE? 
---------------------- 
 
3.  (C) CHARGE COMMENTEO THAT MELES AND ISAIAS, WHO USED 
TO BE SOURCES OF HELPFUL EXPERTISE AND ANALYSIS IN 
REGIONAL ISSUES, ARE DISTRACTED BY THEIR OWN CONFLICT, 
AND THEIR LEADERSHIP IS SORELY MISSED.  CHARGE ASKED WHAT 
MELES MIGHT ACCEPT AS A SIGN FROM ISAIAS TO ALLOW A 
SETTLEMENT ON TECHNICAL MODALITIES TO BE FINALIZEO. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
ISAIAS IS A SADDAM WHO DOESN'T UNDERSTAND GAME RULES 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
4.  (C) RETURNING TO AN OFT-REPEATED THEME, MELES 
RESPONDED THAT THE ROOT ISSUE IS THAT ISAIAS DOES NOT 
EVEN UNDERSTANO THE "RULES OF THE GAME" AND IS NOT A 
RATIONAL DECISION-MAKER.  LIKE SADDAM HUSSEIN AND THE 
INVASION OF KUWAIT, ISAIAS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO BACK DOWN 
NOW BECAUSE IT WOULD BE AT VARIANCE WITH HIS 
UNOERSTANDING OF THE REALITIES.  MELES PLACES THE 
ERITREAN INVASION IN THE CONTEST OF CONFLICTING ECONOMIC 
VISIONS.  ERITREA WAS CLEAR FROM 1991 ON THAT IT WANTED 
TO BE SINGAPORE AND WOULO NEEO THE SUPPORT OF THE 
"HINTERLANDS".  ETHIOPIA, NO HINTERLAND, UNDERTOOK A 
ROUTE TO ITS OWN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT THAT STYMIED 
ERITREA'S, AND ECONOMIC DISAGREEMENTS SIMMERED FOR SOME 
TIME.  MELES HYPOTHESIZES NOW THAT ISAIAS INVADED BADME, 
THE TRIGGER FOR THE CURRENT CONFLICT, IN PART TO WARN 
ETHIOPIA OF ERITREAN CAPABILITIES SHOULD THE GFDRE 
CONTINUE TO STAND IN THE WAY OF THE ERITREAN ECONOMIC 
VISION. 
 
5.  (C) ISAIAS ASSUMED, MELES BELIEVES, THAT ETHIOPIA WAS 
MORE MILITARILY UNPREPARED THAN ERITREA ANO THAT IT WOULD 
AVOID OPEN WAR BECAUSE IT HAS BENEFITED SO MUCH FROM 
PEACE.  THIS WAS A MISCALCULATION.  WHILE ETHIOPIA WAS 
MORE UNPREPARED, IT HAD THE CORE OF ITS ARMEO FORCES IN 
PLACE AND WAS ABLE TO CALL UP OEMOBILIZED FIGHTERS AND TO 
TRAIN OTHERS.  MOREOVER, WITH THE INVASION OF BAOME AND 
THE ATTEMPT TO CHANGE FACTS ON THE GROUNO BY FORCE, 
ERITREA CROSSED AN ETHIOPIAN RED LINE.  ON OTHER ISSUES, 
ETHIOPIA MIGHT HAVE AGREED TO TURN ITS CHEEK, BUT THIS 
AFFRONT WAS SO GREAT THAT TO LET IT PASS IN SILENCE WOULD 
HAVE BEEN ESSENTIALLY TO RELINQUISH NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY. 
THUS, THE DEMAND THAT ISAIAS WITHDRAW AND THAT BADME BE 
RETURNEO TO THE STATUS QUO ANTE IS EVERYTHING.  IF HE 
DOES, THEN PERHAPS HE WILL HAVE LEARNEO HIS LESSON.  IF 
HE OOES NOT, THEN HE MUST BE TAUGHT. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
U.S. UNFAIR AND SHOWS LACK OF CONSENSUS 
--------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) MELES WAS DISMISSIVE OF SUGGESTIONS FROM 
WASHINGTON THAT A RENEWED ENGAGEMENT BY THE U.S. WOULD 
BEAR FRUIT.  FIRST, HE EXPRESSED AGAIN HIS ANNOYANCE OVER 
THE USG STATEMENT OF AUGUST 6 WITH REGARD TO THE 
EXPULSIONS OF ERITREANS.  THIS, HE REPEATED, WAS UNFAIR 
AND UNBALANCED.  THE U.S. SAIO NOTHING ABOUT THE CHILDREN 
KILLEO IN MEKELLE, NOTHING ABOUT 170,000 DISPLACED AND 
VOICELESS PEASANTS IN TIGRAY AND NOTHING ABOUT THE 
DESTRUCTION OF ZAL ANBESSA, BUT IT ATTACKS ETHIOPIA FOR 
POLITELY ASKING SOME POSSIBLE SECURITY THREATS TO LEAVE 
THE COUNTRY.  THIS IS MORE THAN A SENTIMENTAL ISSUE, HE 
ARGUED; SUBSTANTIVELY, THE ISSUANCE OF SUCH A STATEMENT 
SUPPORTS THE ETHIOPIAN BELIEF, LONG HELD BUT IN ABEYANCE 
IN RECENT MONTHS, THAT THE U.S. APPLIES A DOUBLE STANOARD 
IN ITS TREATMENT OF ERITREA AND ETHIOPIA.  THIS WAS 
ALWAYS CLEAR IN ANNUAL HUMAN RIGHTS REPORTS.  HE WAS 
FOREWARNED THAT A STATEMENT WAS IN THE WORKS, AND ASSUMES 
THE EVENTUAL FINAL VERSION WAS "SANITIZED" FROM EARLIER 
DRAFTS. 
 
7.  (C) IT IS CLEAR THEN, MELES ACCUSED, THAT THERE ARE 
PEOPLE OF INFLUENCE IN THE U.S. GOVERNMENT WHO ARE 
CAPABLE OF WORSE LANGUAGE ABOUT ETHIOPIA AND THAT THERE 
IS NO CONSENSUS ON THE ISSUE.  HE HAD JUST READ A 
MAGAZINE INTERVIEW WITH ISAIAS, IN WHICH THE ERITREAN 
INDICATED THAT U.S. OFFICIALS HAD TOLD HIM HE MUST BE 
MORE FLEXIBLE BECAUSE ETHIOPIA IS TOO FRAGILE TO PERMIT 
MELES TO BEND.  WHILE HE KNOWS ISAIAS PLAYS FAST AND 
LOOSE WITH THE TRUTH, MELES SAID, SOMETHING LIKE THIS 
MIGHT HAVE BEEN SAID.  AFTER ALL, HE HAS HEARD THAT AT 
LEAST ONE OF THE FACILITATORS HAS SAID HE REGRETS HAVING 
DRAFTED THEIR RECOMMENDATIONS.  BY TELLING THIS TO 
ISAIAS, THE U.S. MERELY REINFORCES ISAIAS' MISPERCEPTIONS 
OF THE SITUATION.  IF THE U.S. BELIEVES ETHIOPIA WILL 
CRACK UNDER PRESSURE, ITS PREMISES ARE DIAMETRICALLY 
OPPOSED TO THOSE ON WHICH MELES IS OPERATING. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
SO WHY DON'T YOU JUST LAY OFF, LET THINGS EVOLVE 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
8.  (C) WITH ALL THIS IN MIND, MELES FINDS THE CONTINUING 
U.S. WISH TO CONCENTRATE ON PREVENTION OF ARMED CONFLICT 
OFF THE MARK.  TO PREVENT WAR WILL TAKE A VERY STRONG 
MESSAGE TO ISAIAS.  ASKED BY THE CHARGE TO ELABORATE, 
MELES PROPOSED THE FOLLOWING LANGUAGE:  "ISAIAS, THIS IS 
YOUR MESS.  YOU MAY PAY SOME POLITICAL COSTS BY 
WITHDRAWING FROM BADME, BUT IF YOU DO NOT, YOU ARE ON 
YOUR OWN, WITHOUT OUR SUPPORT AND WITHOUT OUR PRESSURE ON 
ETHIOPIA TO AVOID WAR."  THIS MESSAGE, MELES STATED 
CATEGORICALLY, IS ONE THAT THE U.S., WHICH ISSUED THE 
AUGUST 6 STATEMENT AND WHICH MIGHT HAVE CALLED ETHIOPIA 
FRAGILE, CANNOT AND WILL NOT SEND.  THUS IT IS BETTER, 
MELES SUGGESTED, IF THE U.S. LETS THINGS TAKE THEIR 
COURSE AND EVOLVE NATURALLY.  JUST BE AWARE, HE ADDED, 
THAT NOTHING WILL PREVENT ETHIOPIA'S ATTEMPT TO DISLODGE 
ISAIAS FROM BADME IF HE DOES NOT WITHDRAW VOLUNTARILY. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
WHY NOT PREPARE FOR THE EVENTUAL AFTERMATH? 
------------------------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) A BETTER USE OF OUR ANALYTIC CAPACITY, MELES 
PROPOSED, IS TO ASSESS THE END GAME AND WHAT THE U.S. 
MIGHT DO TO PICK UP THE PIECES LATER, AFTER THE WORST 
HAPPENS AND THE TWO COUNTRIES FIGHT IT OUT.  A FRIEND 
WITH RESOURCES AND A PLAN FOR THE AFTERMATH WOULD BE MOST 
WELCOME.  WHY NOT PREPARE FOR THE THREE EVENTUALITIES: 
ETHIOPIA CRACKS, ERITREA CRACKS, THERE IS A DRAW. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
MELES CAN WORK WITH ISAIAS, IF HE BACKS DOWN 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
10.  (C) CHARGE DEMURRED AT MELES' CATEGORIZATION OF OUR 
DEPORTATIONS STATEMENT, OBSERVING IT WAS ISSUED TO 
ADDRESS A SYMPTOM OF THE LARGER CONFLICT.  HE URGED MELES 
TO DIVORCE THE EXPULSIONS AND OUR STATEMENT FROM 
EFFORTS TO RESOLVE THE CONFLICT.  MOREOVER, TO THE EXTENT 
THE EMBASSY OBTAINS CREDIBLE INFORMATION ABOUT ERITREAN 
ABUSES OF ETHIOPIANS, WE WILL RESPOND PUBLICLY WITH 
DISAPPROVAL THERE, TOO.  (CHARGE ADDED THAT AN EMBASSY 
TEAM IS VISITING REPUTED ETHIOPIAN DEPORTEES IN DESSE 
THIS WEEK.)  AS TO ISAIAS' REPORTED STATEMENT ABOUT U.S. 
OFFICIALS CALLING ETHIOPIA TOO FRAGILE TO BEND, THE 
CHARGE ASSURED THE PRIME MINISTER THIS IS NOT U.S. POLICY 
AND THAT HE COULD NOT IMAGINE SUCH A THING BEING 
PRESENTED TO ISAIAS.  FINALLY, HE EXPRESSED SOME CONCERN 
OVER MELES' DRAWING A COMPARISON BETWEEN ISAIAS AND 
SADDAM HUSSEIN, COMMENTING THAT THIS IMPLIED MELES WOULD 
NOT BE ABLE TO WORK WITH ISAIAS IN ANY EVENT. 
 
11.  (C) MELES ANSWERED THAT HE SEES THE STATEMENT AS A 
REFLECTION OF A NEGATIVE STATE OF MIND AND THAT, WHILE 
ISAIAS MIGHT HAVE LIED, HE IS STILL CONCERNED ABOUT WHAT 
HE SAID.  AS TO THE SADDAM ANALOGY, MELES ASSURED CHARGE 
HE CAN WORK WITH ISAIAS IF THIS CONFLICT IS SETTLED 
PEACEFULLY, ALTHOUGH HE CAN "NEVER LOVE HIM OR TRUST HIM 
AGAIN."  ASKED AGAIN WHETHER, FOR EXAMPLE, A COMMITMENT 
BY ISAIAS TO WITHDRAW FROM BADME FIRST MIGHT SUFFICE TO 
RESTART PEACE NEGOTIATIONS, MELES STRESSED THAT WHAT IS 
IMPORTANT IS THAT THE INVADER WITHDRAW BEFORE THE 
INVADED.  ERITREA HAS TO DO THIS UNILATERALLY, NOT AS ITS 
SIDE OF A JOINT WITHDRAWAL FOR DEMILITARIZATION.  THAT 
WILL MAKE THE POINT TO ALL ERITREANS THAT THERE CAN BE NO 
CHANGE BY FORCE, AND THEY WILL ACT AS A BRAKE ON ISAIAS 
SHOULD HE WISH TO GO ADVENTURING AGAIN.  THAT WILL BE 
ETHIOPIA'S GUARANTEE OF SECURITY IN FUTURE. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
12.  (C) MOST OF THE PRIVATE PRESS IS EXPRESSING OUTRAGE 
OVER THE U.S. STATEMENT AND ONE ARTICLE CALLED IT THE 
FOURTH U.S. BETRAYAL OF ETHIOPIA (OUR REFUSAL TO STAND 
AGAINST ITALY'S INVASION, OUR FAILURE TO ASSIST WHEN SIAD 
BARRE INVADED, AND OUR ACQUIESCENCE IN TPLF'S ALLOWING 
ERITREA ITS INDEPENDENCE BEING THE FIRST THREE).  MELES' 
PORTRAYAL OF THE BETRAYED ETHIOPIAN APPEARED HEARTFELT. 
HIS ANALYSIS OF U.S. INCAPACITY TO ACT AS HONEST BROKER 
NOW, WHILE ILLOGICAL FROM AN OBJECTIVE POINT OF VIEW, 
CLEARLY REFLECTS A LOSS OF CONFIDENCE, ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT 
EXCLUDE THE REAL POSSIBILITY THAT HE ALSO SEEKS TO 
BOLSTER U.S. RESOLVE.  MELES' SUGGESTION THE U.S. BEGIN 
ASSESSING WHAT IT MIGHT DO IN THE AFTERMATH OF WAR 
APPEARS TO BE HIS WAY OF SAYING "IF YOU CAN'T TAKE THE 
HEAT, GET OUT OF THE KITCHEN."  WE THINK WE SHOULD STAY 
IN THE KITCHEN AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE MUCH MORE HEAT 
FROM BOTH MELES AND ISAIAS AS WE TRY TO PUSH THE PEACE 
PROCESS FORWARD.  THERE WILL ALWAYS BE TIME TO PICK UP 
THE PIECES IF WE DO NOT SUCCEED. 
 
13.  (U) ASMARA, DAR ES SALAAM, KAMPALA AND NAIROBI 
MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. 
 
BRENNAN