US embassy cable - 03RANGOON860

S E C R E T RANGOON 000860 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, BM, ASSK, NLD 
SUBJECT: MP'S-ELECT SHARE THEIR POLITICAL VIEWS 
 
Classified By: COM CARMEN M. MARTINEZ FOR REASON 1.5(D). 
 
1.  (S) Summary:  MPs-elect told us July 18 that they expect 
Aung San Suu Kyi to be released fairly soon, that the party 
remains strong and its members dedicated and loyal, and that 
they hope to avoid any "sporadic" anti-regime action that 
could serve as a pretext for an even tougher crackdown on the 
pro-democracy movement.  If and when the NLD acts, the MPs 
continued, it would be on a coordinated, nation-wide basis. 
The British Embassy here has heard talk of NLD plans to 
declare a parallel government.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (S) Emboffs, accompanied by a British diplomat, met in 
Rangoon July 18 with five Members of Parliament Elect (i.e., 
elected in the junta-annulled 1990 election).  Four are 
provincial-level NLD leaders and one is a member of the Party 
for National Democracy (the party of Aung San Suu Kyi's first 
cousin and prime minister of the NCGUB, Dr. Sein Win).  Two 
of the five were recently released from detention after being 
arrested in the post-May 30th crackdown on the NLD.  A brief 
recap of significant points follows: 
 
-- They do not expect ASSK will be imprisoned for a long 
period, as international and domestic pressure is building on 
the regime to release her. 
 
-- The local party members remain dedicated and "are willing 
to gather and strike if we ask them." 
 
-- The party has yet to take any concerted action, as the 
members await direction from its leaders.  "We have pledged 
ourselves to Aung San Suu Kyi and U Aung Shwe and would not 
want to do anything against their wishes." 
 
-- If, however, ASSK and U Aung Shwe are not soon released, 
the provincial-level leadership will meet to coordinate 
national policy. 
 
-- They say any anti-regime action must be national and 
coordinated.  They fear that sporadic violence, particularly 
in Rangoon or Mandalay, could spark an even harsher military 
crackdown on democracy supporters. 
 
-- The SPDC claims ASSK provoked the "clash" of May 30th and 
planned some violence in Rangoon in an attempt to spur a 
general uprising, they explained.  The MPs-elect are 
concerned that some student hotheads may play into the SPDC's 
hands by undertaking scattered violent acts. 
 
-- Overall, the MPs said they welcomed the events since May 
30th, as they might prove to be a catalyst for positive 
change.  One of those recently released said somewhat 
ruefully, "Experience can be a wonderful teacher, but lately 
the school fees have been very high." 
 
3. (C) The British diplomat afterwards told us she had heard 
from other MPs-elect that some MPs-elect are considering 
announcing a parallel government.  (We have heard the same, 
but only third-hand.)  She added that in her recent 
discussions with Thailand-based anti-regime youths, it is 
apparent that some leaders are pressing for direct action and 
now reject any hope of resumed "dialogue."  These young 
people have taken heart "from the language of the bill your 
Congress just passed," she said. 
 
4. (C) COMMENT: We note that the Burmese Freedom and 
Democracy Act includes the sentence, "The policy of the 
United States, as articulated by the President on April 24, 
2003, is to officially recognize the NLD as the legitimate 
representative of the Burmese people as determined by the 
1990 election."  We will seek to provide measured advice to 
any MPs-elect who might be considering declaring a parallel 
government on the basis of this or other statements.  End 
Comment. 
Martinez