US embassy cable - 03AMMAN4403

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 004403 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, JO 
SUBJECT: POLL SHOWS JORDANIANS WANT PARLIAMENT AND SEEK 
GREATER REFORM, BUT LACK CONFIDENCE IN PARLIAMENTARIANS' 
ABILITY TO DELIVER 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Doug Silliman, per 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (U)  Summary:  The University of Jordan,s Center for 
Strategic Studies (CSS) released an opinion poll 8 July which 
suggests Jordanians want an active Parliament but doubt that 
their newly elected Lower House will be an effective 
law-making body.  It also reveals that domestic concerns, not 
foreign policy, are the priority of most Jordanians, with 
unemployment, poverty, and corruption topping the list.  The 
poll, based on interviews with 1,400 people across the 
country, was conducted 21-29 June.  This poll seems at odds 
with other recent polling that suggests Palestinian-related 
issues take precedence over all but the most personal 
bread-and-butter issues.  End Summary. 
 
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Legislative Effectiveness 
------------------------- 
 
2.  (U)  Buttressing the notion that Jordanians want to see 
an effective Parliament, slightly more than half of the 
respondents rejected the idea that &nothing will change with 
or without a Lower House of Parliament.8  At the same time, 
about the same number believed that new MPs would be 
concerned with their personal interests and family 
businesses; only one-quarter said that they would dedicate 
themselves to the good of the community. 
 
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Parliamentary Elections & Policy Priorities 
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3.  (U)  Asked about the transparency and fairness of the 
recent Parliamentary elections, only 1 in 5 respondents 
judged them unfair.  As for allegations of vote-buying, 
nearly three-quarters claimed to have heard of the &vote 
sales8 phenomenon, with approximately 35 percent saying it 
had been prevalent to a large or very large degree in their 
constituencies. 
 
4.  (U)  The poll confirmed previous studies concluding that 
the Jordanian masses put greater importance on local issues 
over foreign-policy questions.  Concern for domestic 
challenges such as poverty, unemployment, and corruption rank 
well above regional issues of Palestine and Iraq. 
 
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Democratization 
--------------- 
 
5.  (U)  The poll found Jordanians disillusioned with the 
country,s democratization, rating Jordan just above the 
half-way mark on a ten-point scale.  Jordanians ranked their 
country third in the region in terms of degree of 
democratization - behind Lebanon and Israel, but ahead of 
Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia, the Palestinian Authority, and 
Iraq.  Of interest is the rating received by the United 
States, which though given a 7.44 out of 10 this year, has 
fallen steadily from a 2001 high of 8.33.  CSS analysts 
suggested that American policies regarding the Intifada and 
the war in Iraq have deepened widespread suspicions of U.S. 
democracy and may explain this pattern of decline. 
 
6.  (U)  More than four-fifths said they fear they would be 
punished in one way or another for criticizing the 
government, up a dramatic 13 points from 1999.  Fear of 
governmental repercussions prevents the majority of 
Jordanians from vocally criticizing policy, assert the 
Centre,s pollsters. 
 
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Justice, the Economy & Development 
---------------------------------- 
 
7.  (U)  The public seemed dissatisfied with the extent to 
which authorities respect the principles of justice and 
equality.  The percentage of those who believed Jordan has 
very high respect for the law has steadily declined to 9.6 
percent from 1999,s 33.3 percent.  CSS also notes an 
increase in the percentage of those responding unfavorably. 
 
8.  (U)  Almost half of the interviewees reported that their 
economic situation has worsened over the past year, while 
only 10 percent said they were better off.  These results 
reflect a general perception that the fruits of economic 
reforms do not benefit people across the board and are not 
distributed evenly. 
 
9.  (U)  Nearly 90 percent of respondents said they wanted to 
live &under a democracy,8 with three-quarters of them 
defining this in terms of respect for civil liberties and 
political rights, socio-economic development, and equality 
and justice. 
 
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Policy Implications 
------------------- 
 
10.  (U)  A 10 July editorial in the Jordan Times suggested 
that the poll highlights the fact that Jordanians understand 
the importance of voting in procedural terms but continue to 
lack a firm comprehension of democracy,s potential.  The 
piece concluded that the new Parliament should heed the 
messages of the poll and focus its attention on 
bread-and-butter constituent matters to win popular support. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
11.  (C)  Palace sources tell us that, in their own private 
polling, bread-and-butter issues rank first in popular 
concern.  However, unlike this CSS poll, the Palace poll 
indicates most Jordanians rank the Palestinian question 
higher than issues such as health care, infrastructure 
improvements, and education.  Jordanians, like other Arabs, 
consider the issue not as a foreign-policy concern but as an 
existential, personal issue.  The results of a Zogby 
International poll from October 2002 mirror this sentiment. 
Respondents placed &Palestine8 and &the rights of 
Palestinians8 with their personal economic situation as the 
next-ranking concerns, far ahead of other issues, such as 
their national economies and their country,s relationship 
with other Arab or non-Arab countries. 
 
12.  (C)  The results of the CSS poll show some success in 
the government,s policies of turning the focus from regional 
politics to &pocketbook8 issues and highlights that further 
improvement is needed to reap the economic benefits on the 
micro-level.  If the CSS poll is right, many Jordanians may 
evaluate MPs on economic issues )) something on which most 
Members have a shaky grasp (at best). 
HALE