US embassy cable - 03TEGUCIGALPA1642

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 001642 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CEN, INR/B, DRL/IRF, 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, KJUS, PHUM, HO, VA 
SUBJECT: A LATIN AMERICAN POPE?  CARDINAL RODRIGUEZ DEEMED 
PAPABILE, SPECULATION MAY AID HIS ANTI-CORRUPTION CAMPAIGN 
 
REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 625 
     B. TEGUCIGALPA 1534 
     C. VATICAN 4582 
 
Classified By: Political Section Chief, Francisco L. Palmieri; Reasons 
1.5(b) and (d). 
 
1.  (U)  Summary.  Pope John Paul II's increasing frailty has 
prompted discussion over potential successors to the papacy, 
among which experts have identified Cardinal Oscar Andres 
Maradiaga Rodriguez of Honduras as both a popular and 
geographically strategic candidate.  Despite the Euro-centric 
tradition of the papacy, some Vatican experts believe that 
the next pontiff may, in fact, be a Latin American.  Cardinal 
Rodriguez, Archbishop of Tegucigalpa is viewed as a strong 
choice among Latin American cardinals eligible for the 
position, both for his insider connections and international 
reputation as a champion of social justice and political 
transparency in his home country of Honduras.  In Honduras, 
because of this status, the media pays special attention to 
his public pronouncements.  End Summary. 
 
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Latin America: The Church's Fastest Growing Constituency 
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2.  (SBU)  While European and American church membership has 
sharply declined in recent years, the developing world (and 
Latin America, in particular) has experienced the opposite 
trend.  Today, home to more than half of the world's 
Catholics, Latin America has increasingly emerged as the new 
face of Catholicism in the 21st century.  Reflecting the 
rapid increase in church membership, the region is now 
represented by a powerful 22-Cardinal voting electorate for 
the papacy, which is the second largest regional voting block 
(next to Europe). 
 
3.  (SBU)  In addition to Cardinal Rodriguez, other strong 
candidates from the region identified in REFtel C and by the 
media include: Dario Catrillon Hoyos (74) of Colombia; Jorge 
Mario Bergoglio (66) of Argentina; Claudio Hummes (68) of 
Brazil; Norberto Rivera Carrera (61) of Mexico; and Alfonso 
Lopez Trujillo (67) of Colombia.  While many experts believe 
Rodriguez to be among the top few potential candidates, some 
have also indicated that the Cardinal's relative youth, at 60 
years of age, may prove a potential obstacle among an older 
voting electorate.  Additionally, the Cardinal's health is 
not 100 percent.  He allegedly suffers from diabetes, for 
which he apparently spent a month in a German hospital last 
fall.  Also, his life has been threatened repeatedly in 
Honduras.  (See REFtel A.) 
 
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Speculation Draws Greater Attention to the Cardinal's Battles 
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4.  (C)  Comment.  Even though the timeframe for the next 
papal election is indeterminable, widespread media 
speculation among experts and the press regarding Cardinal 
Rodriguez's potential candidacy has nonetheless had an 
impact.  Voted the third most powerful public figure in 
Honduras (behind President Maduro and the Ambassador) earlier 
this year, the Cardinal has been featured even more 
prominently in the press recently.  Should the Cardinal 
emerge publicly as a contender for the papacy in the coming 
months, his high profile campaigns will likely receive 
increased moral and political weight.  Given the close 
relationship between the Ambassador and Cardinal Rodriguez, 
the Cardinal's popular moral authority represents an 
increased opportunity to rally additional Honduran support 
for many of our shared priorities, including fighting 
narco-corruption, violence and poverty.  At the same time, it 
is important to note that the Cardinal has, at times, 
criticized several U.S. policies, such as the War in Iraq, 
CAFTA, and the level of international assistance to the 
developing world.  End Comment. 
Palmer