US embassy cable - 03ANKARA4319

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 004319 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKISH REACTIONS TO IRAQ INCIDENT: AK GOVERNMENT 
PROTECTING CLOSE BILATERAL TIES WITH U.S. 
 
REF: A. ANKARA 4299 
     B. ANKARA 4278 
     C. ANKARA 4240 
 
 
(U) Classified by Deputy Chief of Mission Robert S. Deutsch. 
Reason: 1.5 (b)(d). 
 
 
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AK Government Underscores Importance of Relations with U.S. 
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1. (U) Speaking to reporters July 9, F.M. Gul expanded on the 
AK Government's measured stance on the July 4 incident 
involving U.S. and Turkish troops in Iraq.  Gul observed that 
the visit of General Jones shows the importance the U.S. 
attaches to friendship with Turkey.  Asked whether he thought 
the U.S. action had been locally driven, Gul reiterated his 
view (contrary to the view being espoused by the TGS through 
press leaks) that he assumed it was so and continued to do so. 
 
 
2. (U) Gul also addressed growing Turkish concern that the 
U.S. Senate will adopt an "Armenian genocide" resolution this 
week.  "It is the Congress," he averred.  "That is, it is not 
about the Administration.  The Administration is very 
sensitive on this subject and is trying (to be constructive). 
 "It goes without saying that, in the end, parliaments and 
assemblies are independent when making decisions." 
 
 
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Senior AK Rep. Even Stronger in Private 
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3. (C) Following Gul's statement, we sought a telephone 
readout from AK party deputy chairman for policy Firat (de 
facto the number two man in the party hierarchy).  Firat 
asked us to party headquarters, where in his usual low-key, 
direct manner he made the following points: 
 
 
-- AK had expected the Turkish military to create 
provocations in northern Iraq to use not only against the 
U.S. but also domestically against AK. 
 
 
-- This latest incident has affected AK's democratization 
drive in Turkey by giving "hawks in the TGS and other 
Establishment circles" a tool to try to derail the seventh EU 
harmonization package, which deals with civilianization of 
the leadership of the National Security Council.  In 
addition, he claimed, the hawks are using the incident to 
interfere with passage of an effective draft law to 
reintegrate repenting PKK/KADEK cadres.  In this regard, 
Firat opined, the timing of the July 8 assassination attempt 
against the governor of the southeastern province of Tunceli, 
which the Turkish State is blaming on the PKK, suggest that 
it may well have been a provocation organized by Turkish 
security forces. 
 
 
-- The TGS is fanning a strident campaign through leaks to 
the press, especially "Cumhuriyet," and to opposition CHP, 
both of which Firat called "the spokesmen of the military," 
to put pressure on AK and to divert attention from military 
culpability in Iraq. 
 
 
-- Given the way the Turkish State and armed forces are 
structured, Firat said, it is doubtful that the Turkish 
Special Forces in Suleimaniya acted independently of senior 
military leadership.  At the same time, Firat added, Ozkok 
did not appear to be directly responsible for whatever was 
going on; the problem as AK sees it is that Ozkok is not in 
full control.  In this regard, the TGS-directed media 
campaign, he noted, is directed in part at affecting the 
outcome of the end-of-August Supreme Military Council (YAS) 
meeting, which ratifies the annual cycle of senior promotions 
and retirements in the military. 
 
 
-- A May poll which AK commissioned through ANAR (whose 
chairman is a state minister in the AK government but whose 
results have consistently been on target since well before 
the Nov. 2002 general elections) showed that only 11% of 
respondents nationwide would support a military coup, while 
75% would oppose it. 
 
 
-- Turning to the "Armenian genocide" question, Firat said 
that Gul is in secret talks with the Armenians and the AK 
government seeks a way to open the border and establish 
normal relations with Armenia in the near future.  Passage of 
a resolution by the U.S. Senate would set this process back, 
he concluded. 
PEARSON