US embassy cable - 98RIYADH879

C O N F I D E N T I A L RIYADH 000879 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ARP 
CENTCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  03/14/08 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, SA 
SUBJECT:  SAUDI ARABIA:  BEDOUIN LORE ON CROWN PRINCE 
          ABDULLAH'S TRIBAL POWER BASE 
 
REF:  RIYADH 730 
 
 
1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION THEODORE KATTOUF. 
REASON:  1.5 (B). 
 
2. (C) SUMMARY:  ACCORDING TO MEMBERS OF THE ANAYZA TRIBE, CROWN 
PRINCE ABDULLAH'S PRINCIPAL SOURCE OF POWER LIES IN THE SHAMMAR AND 
ANAYZA TRIBES.  HE HAS MARRIED INTO BOTH TRIBES, DRAWS ON THEM FOR 
THE MAJORITY OF HIS NATIONAL GUARDSMEN, AND HAS PREVIOUSLY RELIED 
ON THEM TO PRESERVE HIS COMMAND OF THE NATIONAL GUARD IN THE FACE 
OF AN INTRA-FAMILY EFFORT TO DEPRIVE HIM OF IT.  WHETHER TRUE OR 
NOT, THESE COMMENTS REFLECT THE POPULAR LORE UNDERLYING MUCH OF 
ABDULLAH'S POLITICAL APPEAL TO THE SAUDI PUBLIC.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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TALKING ABOUT ABDULLAH 
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3.   (C) POLOFF SPENT A RECENT AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MEMBERS 
OF THE LEADING FAMILY OF THE SUBAIE, ONE OF THE FOUR PRINCIPAL 
SUBTRIBES OF THE ANAYZA--FIRST IN THE HOME OF A FAMILY MEMBER AND 
THEN IN THE FAMILY TENT.  GATHERED IN THE TENT THAT EVENING WERE 
THREE OF THE TRIBAL SHEIKH'S BROTHERS, THREE OF HIS FIRST COUSINS 
(TWO OF WHOM ARE U.S.-EDUCATED), NUMEROUS MORE DISTANT COUSINS, 
VARIOUS TRIBAL RETAINERS, AND A VISITING SHEIKH OF ANOTHER TRIBE. 
THEY CHATTED, SIPPED TEA, AND PLAYED CARDS. 
 
4.   (C) IN ADDITION TO CONFIRMING THE WIDELY HELD BELIEF THAT 
CROWN PRINCE ABDULLAH IS THE LEAST CORRUPT OR "CLEANEST" OF THE 
SENIOR MEMBERS OF THE ROYAL FAMILY, THE CONVERSATION REVEALED THE 
GREAT EXTENT TO WHICH THESE TRIBESMEN BELIEVE--NO DOUBT TO AN 
EXAGGERATED EXTENT--THAT ABDULLAH'S POWER BASE LIES IN HIS TRIBAL 
TIES. 
 
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ABDULLAH'S TWO MAIN TRIBES 
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5.   (C) SPECIFICALLY, THE CONVERSATION BROUGHT OUT THE FOLLOWING 
BELIEFS.   ABDULLAH'S TWO MAIN TRIBAL SUPPORTERS ARE THE SHAMMAR-- 
HIS MOTHER'S TRIBE--AND THE ANAYZA.  BOTH ARE LARGE, HISTORICALLY 
POWERFUL NORTHERN TRIBES.   HE HAS TWICE MARRIED INTO EACH TRIBE, 
THEREBY CEMENTING HIS EXISTING TIES TO THE SHAMMAR (THROUGH HIS 
MOTHER, A SHAMMAR) OR FORGING NEW ONES TO THE ANAYZA.  AS COMMANDER 
OF THE NATIONAL GUARD, ABDULLAH HAS DRAWN PRIMARILY ON THESE TWO 
TRIBES.  OUR SOURCE ESTIMATES THAT SIXTY TO SIXTY-FIVE PERCENT OF 
THE ACTIVE NATIONAL GUARD ARE SHAMMAR AND ANAYZA TRIBESMEN. 
 
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SAVING HIS COMMAND OF THE NATIONAL GUARD 
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6.   (C) ONE MAN TOLD THE FOLLOWING STORY TO ILLUSTRATE THE 
SUPPOSED SUPPORT ABDULLAH RECEIVES FROM THE SHAMMAR AND ANAYZA 
TRIBES.  DURING THE TIME OF KING FAYSAL (D. 1975), CERTAIN FACTIONS 
OF THE ROYAL FAMILY WERE CONCERNED THAT ABDULLAH WAS GROWING TOO 
POWERFUL AND WANTED TO TAKE THE NATIONAL GUARD AWAY FROM HIM AND 
PUT HIM IN CHARGE OF A LESS POWERFUL GOVERNMENT ENTITY.  WHEN 
ABDULLAH WAS IN THE NORTH VISITING THE TRIBES, HE LET THEM KNOW 
THAT HE WAS UPSET BY THE PROSPECT OF LOSING COMMAND OF THE NATIONAL 
GUARD.  ON THE ADVICE OF THE TRIBAL SHEIKHS, ABDULLAH PUT THE 
NATIONAL GUARD ON MANEUVERS AND REMAINED IN THE NORTH WITH THE 
TRIBES.  IN NO TIME, KEY MEMBERS OF THE ROYAL FAMILY STARTED ASKING 
WHY THE NATIONAL GUARD WAS ON MANEUVERS, WHERE ABDULLAH WAS, AND 
WHO HE WAS WITH.  WHEN THEY LEARNED HE WAS IN THE NORTH WITH 
SHEIKHS OF THE SHAMMAR AND ANAYZA TRIBES, THEY UNDERSTOOD THE WILL 
OF THE TRIBES AND GOT WORD TO ABDULLAH THAT HE WOULD REMAIN IN 
COMMAND OF THE NATIONAL GUARD. 
 
7.   (C) COMMENT:  ALTHOUGH SELF-GRATIFYING AND NO DOUBT 
EXAGGERATED--IF NOT ALTOGETHER APOCRYPHAL--THE STATISTICS AND STORY 
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENT TO WHICH THESE TRIBESMEN BELIEVE THAT A 
SYMBIOTIC RELATIONSHIP BINDS ABDULLAH AND THE TRIBES AND THAT HE IS 
THEIR MAN IN THE GOVERNMENT.  REFTEL DESCRIBES THE GENERAL 
IMPORTANCE OF TRIBAL SUPPORT TO THE AL SAUD.  END COMMENT. 
 
FOWLER