US embassy cable - 03KUWAIT2994

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 002994 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, NEA/ARP, NEA/PPD, PA, INR/NESA, 
IIP/G/NEA-SA, INR/B 
WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE 
LONDON FOR GOLDRICH, PARIS FOR O'FRIEL 
SECDEF FOR OASD/PA 
CINCCENT FOR CCPA 
USDOC FOR 4520/ANESA/ONE/FITZGERALD-WILKS 
USDOC FOR ITA AND PTO/OLIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDMR, KU 
SUBJECT: KUWAIT MEDIA REACTION SPECIAL, JULY 7: NATIONAL 
ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS IN KUWAIT 
 
1.   SUMMARY: Kuwaiti media report that liberal incumbents 
and members of Kuwait's Islamic Constitutional Movement were 
the biggest losers in the July 5 parliamentary elections 
that resulted in nearly half of all members losing their 
seats. Most commentators believe that acting Prime Minister 
Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad will form the new government rather 
than the ailing Crown Prince (and nominal Prime Minister) 
Sheikh Saad, with one daily declaring in a banner headline: 
"Sabah Al-Ahmad Prime Minister." A mock election for women 
by the Kuwait Journalists' Association was held on election 
day, drawing over 900 women "voters." 
 
In contrast with the pre-election period, only one editorial 
repeats allegations of vote-buying by the government.  Other 
commentators argue that the election results reflect the 
victory of personal over national interests, with one 
criticizing a tendency to vote along tribal lines rather 
than according to the merits of the candidates. Another 
notes that despite the liberation of Iraq, Islamist 
candidates gained seats while liberals lost. One 
conservative writer states that liberals risk further 
isolation if they continue to adopt "deviant voices that 
fight religion and attack scholars." 
 
Several liberal commentators argue that with Islamists 
gaining seats in the National Assembly, progress will 
suffer, as "religion is an obstacle to development." END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2.   News Stories: All newspapers report that the most 
prominent loser in the 2003 elections was the liberal 
movement, which media reports indicate lost nearly half of 
its seats in parliament. Most newspapers attribute the loss 
to the liberals' alliance with the government. The Islamic 
Constitutional Movement (Muslim Brotherhood) won lost four 
of its six seats, including that of its leader, MP Mubarak 
Al-Duwaila.  The ICM loss of seats is attributed to their 
inability to coordinate with the Islamic Salafi movement. 
The Salafi movement was able to increase their 
representation to three seats, and pro-government candidates 
also made gains. 
 
According to Al-Qabas on July 7, an Amiri Decree to 
commission the new government is expected within the next 48 
hours. The new National Assembly will reconvene on July 19. 
 
All newspapers speculate over who will form the new 
government: Crown Prince (and nominal Prime Minister) Sheikh 
Saad, or his Acting Prime Minister, Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed. 
Most pundits believe Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed will form the new 
government, and Al-Qabas declares in a front-page banner 
headline "Sabah Al-Ahmed Prime Minister." 
 
Several papers and editorials argue that the 2003 election 
results prove that tribal loyalties won out over political 
and religious affiliations. 
 
All newspapers report that on July 5 the Kuwait Journalist's 
Association held a mock election for women in which over 900 
women voted for MP candidates, with liberal candidates 
receiving the most "votes." 
 
Four Arabic dailies prominently published Ambassador Richard 
Jones' Fourth of July statement in which he praised 
democracy in Kuwait and called on Kuwaitis. On July 7, Al- 
Qabas carries photographs of Ambassador Jones congratulating 
winners of the election. 
 
Al-Qabas reports that most political sources believe that 
the position of National Assembly speaker will go to former 
Speaker and independent, pro-government millionaire 
businessman, Jassim Al-Khorafi. 
 
Candidate Basil Al-Jassir is contesting the results of the 
election in his district, alleging that fraud was involved, 
Al-Seeyasah reports. 
 
Al-Watan reports on July 6 that the Minister of Interior has 
ordered the court marshal of a number of Ministry of 
Interior officers after discovering their interference in 
the election process. 
 
Editorials: 
 
3.  "What Comes After the Elections?" 
Conservative Dr. Sami Khalifa wrote in independent Al-Rai Al- 
Aam (7/7): "The new Parliamentarians must now focus of three 
issues: 1) They must force the government to change its 
negative and provocative method in dealing with them; 2) The 
necessity to adopt clear and serious political agendas that 
could lead to uniting the parliamentary blocks, whether 
liberal or Islamic; 3) The necessity of adopting draft laws 
to restructure the relationship between the government and 
Parliament by canceling the participation of the government 
in any voting that takes place in the Parliament." 
 
4.  "A Reading in Patriotism" 
Dr. Khalid Ahmad Al-Saleh wrote in independent Al-Watan 
(7/7):  "The liberal movement is passing through a serious 
curve. If this movement continues to. adopt deviant voices 
that fight religion and attack scholars, it will end up 
forgotten by the nation's conscience and out of the 
Parliament. However, if this movement is led by members who 
adopt democracy and respect the nation's [values, 
traditions] doctrine and Islam, then people will grant them 
another opportunity to represent them in a new National 
Assembly." 
 
5.  "The National Assembly's Surprise" 
Liberal Chairman of the Political Science Department at 
Kuwait University, Dr. Shamlan Al-Essa wrote in independent 
Al-Seyassah (7/7):  "The surprise in the recent elections 
was the fall of the liberal and the Islamic powers. The 
biggest winner in the elections was the government. [M]any 
of the new MPs do not have new ideas or initiatives because 
most of them come from tribes or clans or belong to the 
[Islamist] Salafi movement. This means that they will not 
lead any change but will rather wait for the government to 
offer reform projects. What was also striking in the 
elections was the re-election of those elected Ministers 
[Ministers chosen from the body of elected MPs] who offered 
services for their constituents through breaching rules and 
regulations. The strong return of the elected Ministers 
means that the Kuwaiti voter is no longer interested in 
principles, values, ethics and the interest of Kuwait. His 
main concern is to achieve his own interests and others can 
go to hell." 
 
6.  "Self-Change" 
Liberal Dr. Ahmed Al-Baghdadi wrote in independent Al- 
Seyassah (7/7): "Change is natural. A lack of change in life 
is the death of life itself. [An ideology based on] religion 
is an obstacle to development. A human being can be a good 
Muslim without adopting a religious ideology. Islamic groups 
are paying dearly for attempting to confront the coming 
globalization. The Kuwaiti people are mistaken if they 
believe that the current situation will be in their 
interests. They are mistaken if they replace the State's 
institutions and the values of constitutional democracy with 
tribal. relations. It is our responsibility to pave the road 
for the new generation and this can only be achieved by 
separating political ideology from religious ideology. 
Breaking this link is necessary to preserve the right of 
individuals to choose their religion." 
 
7. "Dues of the Results of the Elections" 
Liberal former Ahmed Al-Rubei wrote in independent Al-Qabas 
(7/7):  "There is a forthcoming young generation that wants 
change and have proven themselves in various electoral 
districts. Our duty is to start a dialogue [with these young 
MPs] to stress to them that the whole issue is not just a 
matter of change for the sake of change. We must stress that 
there are demands for democracy, foremost among them being 
honesty, foresight and the belief that moral and national 
principles must not be compromised under the pretext of 
change. [This election] has been a failure for all parties 
and movements without exception, and this is a matter that 
deserves a study. There has been popular disappointment, 
which led the people to react without thinking and without 
looking into the future." 
 
8. "Discrepancies That Need Reading and Analysis" 
Former Secretary General of the Kuwait Democratic Forum, 
Ahmad Al-Dayeen wrote in independent Al-Rai Al-Aam (7/7): 
"The Kuwaiti voter has submitted his ballot for tribal and 
family considerations rather than political considerations. 
He was influenced by personal relations more than the 
political stance of the candidates. He has benefited from 
those candidates who gave out `favors and services,' and 
those capable of buying votes in cash. [In addition,] after 
the September 11 attacks and the rise of the American role 
in the region, many believed that liberal power would be 
strengthened and Islamic groups contained, especially those 
who rejected the war on Iraq. Rather, we see that the number 
of liberals in the new Parliament has decreased while the 
numbers of the [Islamist] Salafi movement have increased." 
 
JONES