US embassy cable - 03ABUJA1162

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001162 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2013 
TAGS: ELAB, EPET, ENRG, PGOV, ASEC, CASC, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: STRIKE CONTINUES TO HOLD FOR FOURTH DAY 
 
REF: A. ABUJA 1157 
     B. ABUJA 1147 
     C. ABUJA 1135 
     D. ABUJA 1107 
     E. ABUJA 1091 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reasons:  1.5 (B 
& D). 
 
 
1.  (U) SUMMARY: July 3 was relatively quiet in Abuja. 
Vehicular traffic was light, gas lines were growing and 
most offices and businesses had skeletal staffing. 
Indicating that the political opposition may be looking for 
ways to exploit the strike, the Embassy experienced a 
peaceful demonstration this morning of about 40-50 people 
protesting the April elections and discouraging the 
upcoming POTUS visit.  Talks between the GON and the NLC 
ended without a follow-up meeting scheduled.  Both sides 
appear to be sticking to their positions, for now. 
 
 
2.  (U) Demonstrations occurred in Abuja on Wednesday in 
four separate locations; Port Harcourt, Zaria and Kano 
witnessed their first public demonstrations yesterday as 
well.  In Port Harcourt, a confrontation between police and 
demonstrators produced unconfirmed reports of three 
students killed when the police used live rounds to 
disperse the rally.  Negotiations between the GON and NLC 
reportedly broke off early this morning with no follow-on 
meeting scheduled.  NUPENG ordered its employees to honor 
the strike and this action could affect crude oil exports. 
Air traffic controllers are reportedly joining the strike, 
which could limit domestic air travel.  With a memorial 
service planned for slain ANPP figure Marshall Harry 
scheduled for Friday, Port Harcourt could be a potential 
flashpoint.  What happens after Juma'at prayers in Abuja 
and other northern cities will also bear close watching. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
 
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ATMOSPHERICS 
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3. (U) Wednesday's demonstrations in Abuja were more 
widespread than in previous days.  Up to 100 people may 
have been injured at Abuja's Wuse Market when police 
attempted to disperse a crowd by firing shots and using 
teargas.  Many of the injuries were caused by the panicked 
flight of hundreds from the market.  Small gangs were 
reported to be smashing car windows in isolated areas of 
Abuja.  In Port Harcourt, demonstrators were confronted by 
security officers who used teargas to disperse the crowd. 
According to witnesses, some demonstrators responded by 
throwing rocks at the police, who fired their weapons at 
the crowd.  Reports of three deaths have not been 
confirmed. 
4.  (U) In the northern town of Zaria, about 1000 
demonstrators took to the streets on Wednesday.  Police 
intervened to halt the protest by firing teargas into the 
crowd.  Kano experienced a peaceful demonstration, with at 
least 3,000 protestors.  Governor Shekarau commiserated 
with the strikers and ordered security to allow the 
demonstration to continue as long as it remained peaceful. 
At the Emir's Palace, the Emir Ado Bayero, a supporter of 
Obasanjo, also told the crowd the price hikes had surprised 
him. 
 
 
5.  (U) The strike appears to be holding, if not actually 
picking up steam in many parts of the country.  Workers 
generally are honoring the strike.  For instance, in Lagos 
activity was minimal again.  NLC supporters continue to 
impede traffic to and from Lagos' Murtala Mohammed 
International Airport.  In the Northeast, workers in Yola 
and Maiduguri remained strike compliant.  Most banks, gas 
stations and businesses remained closed.  Government 
offices were significantly understaffed despite reported 
talk of punitive government action against striking civil 
servants.  In the South-South, Calabar is reportedly calm, 
but government workers are staying away from the offices. 
There was a demonstration in Aba, Abia State with some 
violence.  Fuel, already limited before the strike, is 
generally unavailable throughout the country. 
 
 
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NEGOTIATIONS: ON OR OFF? 
------------------------ 
 
 
6.  (SBU) According to government sources, the current 
session of negotiations between the GON and NLC ended this 
morning with no follow-on meeting scheduled (although a 
meeting could be arranged later today).  Senior NLC 
officials and other Embassy labor sources reported the 
negotiations were "a failure."  While the GON is publicly 
touting progress towards a compromise, NLC sources 
privately say the two sides have made little progress. 
While many claim that a deal is in the offing, a NLC 
official told Econoff that Obasanjo was "playing a waiting 
game, which is getting more dangerous for the country's 
political stability." 
7.  (U) NUPENG has reportedly ordered its employees to 
withdraw from the oil terminals, which could reduce crude 
oil exports.  They said the decision was based on 
PENGASSEN's Saturday deadline to withdraw its workers from 
the oil fields.  (COMMENT: Other reliable sources have 
indicated that NUPENG and PENGASSEN may not join the 
strike.  We are unable to say with certainty which path 
they will take.  END COMMENT.)  Representatives for the air 
traffic controllers say they are joining the strike unless 
a settlement is reached soon.  Domestic air travel has been 
restricted throughout the week, with one carrier grounded 
for the entire week and others managing around 50 percent 
of their scheduled flights.  As of now, no major 
international carrier has cancelled flights into or out of 
Nigeria, but at least one is considering the prospect of 
discontinuing operations after Friday. 
 
 
8.  (U) GON officials remain optimistic about the prospect 
of a settlement today or tomorrow.  A GON official told 
EMBOFF that NLC Executive Council members have been 
summoned to Abuja to review a potential agreement and that 
the meeting could take place as early as tonight.  The 
Inspector General of Police issued a public statement 
denying any fatalities due to police crowd control 
activities. 
 
 
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A CONFLUENCE OF EVENTS 
---------------------- 
 
 
9.  (C) Exacerbating a tense atmosphere in Port Harcourt is 
the scheduled July 4 memorial service and burial for slain 
ANPP chieftain Marshall Harry.  Many high-level ANPP 
members plan to attend, including ANPP presidential 
candidate Muhammadu Buhari. 
 
 
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COMMENT 
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10.  (C) Despite a respite in confrontations today, the 
strike has shown no sign of weakening and its sympathizers 
may be getting more strident in some areas.  The 
possibility of NUPENG and PENGASSEN joining the strike and 
the resultant effect on crude oil production and exports 
could be a major factor in whether the strike is settled 
sooner or later, with Labor possibly gaining a huge 
advantage it does not appear to have now. 
JETER