US embassy cable - 03ABUJA1150

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 001150 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CAIRO FOR POL - MAXSTADT 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, PINR, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PRESIDENT OBASANJO PROPOSES REFORMS TO 
THE FEDERAL SYSTEM 
 
 CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER; REASON: 1.5 (B) 
and (D). 
 
 
1. (U) SUMMARY: President Obasanjo appears committed to using 
the first months of his new Administration to introduce key 
political and economic reforms.  On June 18, Obasanjo 
proposed significant changes to the federal government system 
and the conduct of elections.  The two most salient are: (1) 
the creation of new Zonal Councils, comprised of the 
pertinent state governors for each of the country,s six 
geopolitical zones and, (2) a possible change eliminating 
popular elections for local government councils.  A third, 
potentially nettlesome proposal was the recommendation to 
change elections from a contest between candidates to a 
competition solely between political parties -- the winning 
party could then choose the office holder after the election. 
 The three proposals, particularly the termination of local 
elections, would require constitutional amendments.  The poor 
performance of the generally wastrel local governments made 
them easy prey; many people will applaud that proposal. 
However, opposition parties and numerous civil rights 
activists view the proposals as intended to ensure the 
continued dominance of the PDP, Obasanjo,s governing party. 
END SUMMARY 
 
 
-------------------------------------- 
OBASANJO: TAKING HIS MANDATE SERIOUSLY 
-------------------------------------- 
 
 
2. (U) We have previously reported that President Obasanjo 
won the April 19 election, albeit by materially less than the 
62 percent indicated in the official results.  The 
irregularities surrounding the April elections (legislative, 
gubernatorial, and presidential), diminished the opposition 
parties, fanning embers of political tension in many areas of 
the country.  There was talk of mass action; there was fear 
of worse. 
 
 
3. (C) However, mass action has failed to materialize thus 
far.  Obasanjo and his team actively reached out to 
traditional leaders and members of opposition parties 
susceptible to influence in a successful attempt to co-opt 
them.  Time passed.  The stridency of many opportunists began 
to wane.  Many left the opposition parapets, resigning 
themselves to live with the reality of a massive PDP victory 
at all levels.  Others, tempted by the allure of office, have 
crossed the carpet to the PDP.  Probably gauging that he had 
withstood the initial and perhaps strongest wave of 
opposition criticism, Obasanjo decided it was time to act 
decisively, in accordance with the clear mandate he believes 
he won.  He also had learned a lesson from his first 
Administration.  In 1999, Obasanjo got out of the starting 
blocks quickly, only to allow himself to get bogged down 
later in internecine party squabbles.  With good reason, 
Obasanjo likely reasoned the election has made him the most 
dominant figure on the political landscape; thus he might as 
well act like it, flexing his political muscle when required 
and bringing about sweeping reforms. 
 
 
4. (C) At the June 18 National Council of State meeting, 
Obasanjo unveiled several bold strokes.  (The Council of 
State is composed of the 36 State Governors and all former 
Heads of State.  During most of his first term, Council 
meetings were largely pro forma; little of significance 
emerged from these sessions.  However, this initial meeting 
of his second term proved differently.)  Obasanjo unveiled 
proposals amending the extant federal structure and possibly 
changing the process of elections in Nigeria. 
 
 
------------------------------------- 
LOCAL GOVERNMENT ) A CHANGE IS NEEDED 
------------------------------------- 
 
 
5. (C) The ineffectiveness of local government attracted most 
of Obasanjo,s attention and ire at the Council of State 
meeting.  Established to promote grassroots democracy and 
development, most local governments performed abysmally, 
Obasanjo groused.  Local Councils have become factories of 
corruption, profligacy and often violent political 
competition.  Due to this dismal showing, Obasanjo and the 
Governors agreed to suspend local government elections slated 
for June 21.  Thus, caretaker committees, formed by the 
Governors after the expiry of the elected local officials, 
tenure last year, will continue for at least another three 
months.  First-term governors will likely appoint a new batch 
of local caretakers, loyal and politically supportive. 
 
 
6. (C) During this ninety-day period, a technical review 
committee will consider proposals regarding local 
governments, including their possible elimination.  Another 
proposal tabled at the June 18 meeting was to end local 
government elections altogether, authorize governors to 
nominate Local Government Councils.  A corollary proposal 
would give state governors more control over money for the 
local governments.  (COMMENT: The suspension of the June 21 
local elections had been a foregone conclusion.  State 
Electoral Commissions were unfunded and unprepared to conduct 
elections.  Most governors did not want to spend resources on 
local government elections.  They also were comfortable with 
allowing their hand-picked appointees to remain in control at 
the local level.  All in all, the governors saw the proposals 
on Local Councils as in their interests.  The proposals would 
significantly increase the governors, influence at the local 
level, giving them wide discretion over selection of local 
officials and the expenditure of funds.  This would enhance 
governors, ability to influence what happens in their states 
from now and up to the 2007 elections. END COMMENT) 
 
 
------------------------ 
GOVERNORS ZONAL COUNCILS 
------------------------ 
 
 
7. (C) Creation of Zonal Councils representing the six 
geo-political zones (Southwest, South-South, Southeast, 
Northwest, North-Central, Northwest) was another important 
proposal.  The governors of each state in a particular zone 
would comprise one council; chairmanship of the Council would 
rotate among the governors on a yearly basis.  The exact 
powers of the Council would have to be defined; apparently, 
the Council would derive most of its powers from those 
heretofore within the province of the states but take some 
arrows from the federal government,s quiver as well. 
 
 
-------------------------------- 
I DIDN,T VOTE FOR THAT CANDIDATE 
-------------------------------- 
 
 
8. (C) From the standpoint of democratic expression, the most 
worrisome proposal dealt with the conduct of the election. 
Ostensibly to curtail electoral corruption by insulating 
individual candidates from having to forage for campaign 
funds, a recommendation was put forward to eliminate 
individual candidates in future elections.  Instead of the 
electorate choosing between contesting candidates from 
different parties, only the parties would contest.  The 
winning party could then wait until after the election to 
name the individual office holder. 
 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
 
9. (C) The election in Anambra State presaged this 
recommendation.  After the Electoral Commission announced a 
slate of PDP winners for the National Assembly, the PDP 
national office substituted an entirely new list of 
candidates.  One of the justifications for the switch was 
that the populace voted for the party, not individual 
candidates.  Thus, the party had the right of candidate 
substitution even after the election.  Sadly, the Electoral 
Commission acquiesced in this.  In this instance, corruption 
and image problems were not the reasons for the switch. 
Political competition within the PDP was responsible.  The 
original slate of candidates was aligned with Vice-President 
Atiku; the influential Uba brothers of Anambra (Andy Uba is 
one of President Obasanjo,s closest Special Assistants and 
is married to one of the First Lady,s relatives) sponsored 
the second group of PDP candidates.  The Anambra episode 
merely provides an inkling of how this proposal could be 
abused. 
 
 
------------------- 
NATIONAL CONFERENCE 
------------------- 
 
 
10. (C) The proposed changes would require amendments to the 
Constitution.  The Presidency recently has been signaling a 
newfound interest in a National Conference to discuss these 
and perhaps other issues.  This represents an about-face by 
Obasanjo.  Obasanjo previously opposed the idea of a National 
Conference, apprehensive that it would acquire an unstoppable 
momentum and would treat issues like confederation or 
succession.  The current proposal would entail a 150-member 
Conference, most of whom presumably would be selected by the 
Presidency.  While appearing to extend a hand to advocates of 
a National Conference, this approach, by letting Obasanjo 
choose the delegation, would allow him to influence the 
Conference and its outcomes.  (COMMENT: The idea for a 
national conference had been promoted by many Southern 
politicians, particularly the Yoruba political elite. 
Apparently, Obasanjo promised to support the notion of a 
conference in exchange for the support of Afenifere, the 
pre-eminent Yoruba socio-political organization.  Now 
Obasanjo appears to be following through on his promise, but 
according to his own terms which might not be Afenifere,s. 
END COMMENT) 
 
 
----------------------------- 
THE OPPOSITION CRIES TRICKERY 
----------------------------- 
 
 
11. (C) The opposition had little nice to say about the 
Council of State proposals.  Almost all opposition political 
parties issued critical statements.  Most criticism centered 
around the decision to suspend the June 21 local government 
elections and perhaps do away with local elections entirely. 
Opposition figures called it an open assault against the 
Constitution.  The more virulent oppositionists tagged it as 
the first link of a long concatenation, ultimately leading to 
a constitutional amendment that would allow the President and 
governors to seek third terms.  With the PDP holding 
super-majorities in the National Assembly and controlling 
more than two-thirds of the 36 states (the PDP has 28 
governors), amending the national Constitution has been 
reduced from a solemn undertaking to mostly an intra-party 
affair, these critics complain. 
 
 
12. (C) Politicians from the traditional core of Northern 
politics, the Kaduna-Kano-Sokoto triangle, see the Zonal 
Council and National Conference as inimical.  First, 
institutionalization of the Zonal Councils would further 
split the North.  The proposal would lend further relevance 
to the independence of the Northeast and North Central.  This 
greater identity could only be bought at the expense of the 
Northwest,s influence over these other regions.  Second, 
most Northerners inherently shy away from the idea of a 
National Conference.  The resource poor North is afraid that 
Southerners will focus on the issue of greater local autonomy 
and control of local resources.  Consequently, Northerners 
are wary that Obasanjo will use the specter of a National 
Conference as leverage to get them to acquiesce in his 
proposals if he would suspend the idea of a conference. 
 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
 
13. (C) Rolling out these proposals was perhaps a canny move 
by Obasanjo.  He signaled that squabbling over the elections 
was a thing of the past for him; he was now focussing on 
governance.  By publicizing these proposals, he also hoped to 
shift the political debate.  Now his critics have to expend 
some of their sparse political capital responding to these 
proposals.  The more he makes them respond to what he is 
doing on policy, the less time they have to lambast the 
elections.  Moreover, constant, unrelenting complaining will 
undermine their credibility, making them look shrill in the 
public eye. 
 
 
14. (C) However, Obasanjo,s move may have risks.  Given 
their poor performance, local government councils have few 
defenders.  However, that may not be sufficient rationale to 
scrap local elections.  After all, neither the federal 
government nor state governments performed admirably or even 
up to expectations.  Local government, like the other tiers 
of government, must improve.  However, reposing more power in 
state governors or doing away with elections does not seem 
like the answer.  The cure, greater consolidation of power in 
the gubernatorial mansions and in the Presidential Villa, 
seems more harmful to long-term democracy than the alleged 
disease. 
 
 
15. (C) Additionally, tampering with the constitution can be 
a tempting political morsel.  Allegations that President 
Obasanjo is fishing to perpetuate his Presidency beyond a 
second term are heretofore unsubstantiated and highly 
questionable.  However, the danger exists that office holders 
might seek to enact amendments as well as laws stacking the 
electoral deck in their favor for the future.  It was telling 
that Obasanjo did not consult widely in drafting his 
proposals.  His behavior suggests a politician who believes 
he is popular and that his opposition is powerless.  The 
latter belief is much more accurate than the former.  While 
he may have accurately measured his foes, weaknesses, 
Obasanjo should be careful about taking too many political 
risks, too soon.  Right now the opposition is off balance and 
he is taking advantage of its weakness.  Yet self-delusion 
about the size and strength of his mandate can lead to 
political mistakes.  While he may believe he has vast support 
and can do as he pleases, Obasanjo,s weak popularity among 
many average Nigerians could still be a rallying point for 
the opposition if he is seen as making too many bad moves, 
too quickly. 
JETER