US embassy cable - 03HARARE1333

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 001333 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR AFRICA SENIOR ADVISER JENDAYII FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ZI, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: SIMBA MAKONI ON ZIMBABWEAN CRISIS 
 
Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY JOSEPH G. SULLIVAN FOR REASONS 1.5b/d 
 
 
1. (C) Former Finance Minister and still ZANU-PF Politburo 
member Simba Makoni called on the Ambassador July 1.  Makoni, 
who recently lost his 23-year old son to suicide, told the 
Ambassador July 1 that he was focused on family and his 
growing consultancy business and  relatively disconnected 
from politics these days.  Makoni, who has relatively little 
political power, is rumored likely to lose his politburo seat 
soon.  He is mentioned as a potential presidential candidate, 
most often as the candidate of ZANU-PF heavyweight Solomon 
Mujuru to stop the presidential candidacy of Emmerson 
Mnangagwa.  Makoni said that President Mugabe's recent public 
statement calling for an open and above-board campaign for 
presidential succession had stimulated more open discussion 
of succession in the party. 
 
2.(C)  Makoni acknowledged that another factor was slowing 
down resolution of Zimbabwe's crisis.  The fact that no clear 
succession path exists in ZANU-PF has tended to slow any 
actual progress toward transition.  Makoni said that this 
absence of a solution  often makes it seem like the GOZ 
leadership feels no urgency at all to deal with the country's 
crisis.  Makoni believed that the South Africans and other 
Africans were in the best position to deliver ar a solution 
in Zimbabwe.  But he compared the efforts of President Mbeki 
seeking to find a solution with Mugabe to that which he often 
faced as Finance Minister in dealing with President Mugabe on 
economic issues. The President would say: "yes, yes, yes" as 
they discussed a possible solution, but then never act to 
implement what they had discussed.  Makoni said it was as if 
the economic and political crises were beyond the Zimbabwean 
leadership's ability to solve or even confront. Nonetheless, 
Makoni thought that African leaders were in the best position 
to advance and help deliver a resolution.  He added that 
Secretary Powell's mention (in his "OP-Ed") of US and other 
 
SIPDIS 
donor assistance to a transitional Zimbabwean Government was 
positive. 
 
3.(C)  Makoni was aware of the debate over how effective a 
coalition transitional government could be prior to new 
elections.  He hoped that it could be effective in laying out 
the path to realistic and pragmatic economic and political 
solutions.  He also believed that in addressing the damage of 
the land redistribution exercise, a transitional government 
might be better positioned than an elected ZANU-PF or MDC 
government to set a new direction.  Makoni believed that the 
existing land review commission headed by former Cabinet 
Secretary Charles Utete would do a good and respectable job 
 
SIPDIS 
of assessing problems in the land redistribution exercise, 
but had no ability to implement the necessary corrections. 
Nor did Makoni believe that the current Mugabe Government had 
the political will to implement tough recommendations. 
Makoni said: "One more Commission report to sit on the 
shelf." 
 
4. Comment:  Makoni has little political weight of his own 
and is not in position to advance his own political 
ambitions.  If his name emerges as a serious candidate, it 
will be because others like Mujuru push him forward. 
SULLIVAN