US embassy cable - 97KUALALUMPUR4130

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 004130 
 
 
CINCPAC FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: (OCTOBER 20, 2007) 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, MY 
SUBJECT: MAHATHIR FEUDING WITH ISLAMIC CONSERVATIVES 
 
1. CLASSIFIED BY JOHN R. MALOTT, AMBASSADOR.  REASON: 
1.5(D). 
 
2. (C) SUMMARY.  AS MALAYSIA'S CURRENCY HAS TUMBLED AND 
ITS SKIES HAVE FILLED WITH HAZE, PM MAHATHIR HAS STILL 
FOUND TIME FOR A NASTY DISPUTE WITH ISLAMIC 
CONSERVATIVES.  RECENT ACTIONS BY ZEALOUS RELIGIOUS 
OFFICIALS LED THE PM TO ANNOUNCE A PLAN TO UNIFY SYARIAH 
LAW AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL (STRIPPING POWER FROM STATE 
RELIGIOUS OFFICIALS) AND TO CALL PUBLICLY FOR A MORE 
MODERATE, MODERN ISLAM.  OUTRAGED MOSLEM CLERICS HAVE 
CIRCULATED ANONYMOUS LITERATURE ATTACKING THE PM AND THE 
RULING PARTY AND HAVE CRITICIZED THE GOVERNMENT IN FRIDAY 
SERMONS.  THE PROMINENT MUFTI OF SELANGOR STATE EVEN 
CALLED MAHATHIR AN APOSTATE.  THE GOVERNMENT HAS REACTED 
BY SACKING THE MUFTI, WARNING OTHER ISLAMIC LEADERS, AND 
CURTAILING OPEN DISTRIBUTION OF ISLAMIC OPPOSITION PARTY 
LITERATURE.  THE WIDER MALAY COMMUNITY SHARES SOME OF THE 
CLERICS' CONCERNS, THOUGH FAR LESS ACUTELY; WOMEN 
ACTIVISTS SEEM TO BE THE SOLE MOSLEM CONSTITUENCY 
SQUARELY BACKING THE PM.  DESPITE MAHATHIR'S BIZARRE 
OUTBURSTS AGAINST "THE WEST" DURING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS, 
IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THE PM ADVOCATES A VERSION OF 
ISLAM THAT SERVES U.S. INTERESTS IN MALAYSIA AND IN THE 
INTERNATIONAL ISLAMIC COMMUNITY.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER 
MAHATHIR'S HEIR APPARENT, DEPUTY PM ANWAR, WHO IS SO 
REASONABLE ON MANY ISSUES, HAS THE POLITICAL POSITION OR 
THE DESIRE TO TAKE ON MOSLEM CONSERVATISM AS VIGOROUSLY 
AS MAHATHIR HAS DONE.  IN THE LONG RUN, THE GROWING 
PROPORTION OF  MALAYS IN  MALAYSIA'S ETHNIC  MIX WILL 
PROBABLY LEAD INEXORABLY TO THE FURTHER ISLAMIZATION OF 
MALAYSIAN SOCIETY.  END SUMMARY. 
 
MAHATHIR ATTACKS CONSERVATIVE ISLAM 
----------------------------------- 
 
3. (U) PM MAHATHIR, LIKE MANY OTHER WESTERN-EDUCATED 
MALAYS OF HIS GENERATION, IS AN OBSERVING MOSLEM WITH A 
MODERATE, LARGELY SECULAR WORLD VIEW.  SEVERAL INCIDENTS 
INVOLVING ZEALOUS ISLAMIC AUTHORITIES HAVE ANGERED THE PM 
OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS.  IN JULY, A UNIT OF THE 
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION PROPOSED MAKING THE STUDY OF 
"ISLAMIC CIVILIZATION" COMPULSORY FOR ALL STUDENTS, 
INCLUDING NON-MALAYS (IN MALAYSIA, MALAYS ARE NEARLY ALL 
MOSLEMS AND, EXCEPT FOR SOME INDIAN MOSLEMS, NON-MALAYS 
ARE NEARLY ALL NON-MOSLEMS).  AFTER PROTESTS (AND THE 
PM'S INTERVENTION), THE REQUIRED COURSE WAS BROADENED TO 
"ASIAN CIVILIZATION."  IN AUGUST, SELANGOR STATE 
RELIGIOUS AUTHORITIES LED THREE MALAY WOMEN AWAY IN 
HANDCUFFS FOR TAKING PART IN A BEAUTY PAGEANT, ATTRACTING 
THE ATTENTION OF THE INTERNATIONAL PRESS.  ALSO IN 
AUGUST, SARAWAK ISLAMIC AUTHORITIES WARNED SEVERAL MALAY 
MEN NOT TO TAKE PART IN A BODYBUILDING COMPETITION THAT 
INCLUDED POSING IN BRIEF OUTFITS.  THE BODYBUILDERS 
IGNORED THIS WARNING AND NEVER RECEIVED PUNISHMENT, 
HOWEVER. 
 
4. (C) AFTER THE MESSY BEAUTY CONTEST INCIDENT, THE PM 
SAID THAT BY EARLY 1998 THE GOVERNMENT WOULD UNIFY 
SYARIAH LAW AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL THUS SHARPLY CURBING THE 
AUTONOMY OF LOCAL RELIGIOUS AUTHORITIES.  THE PM SAID 
VARYING STATE INTERPRETATIONS OF ISLAMIC LAW "CONFUSED 
THE PEOPLE" AND ORDERED ALL ENFORCEMENT ACTIVITIES 
SUSPENDED PENDING THE REVIEW OF STATE LAWS.  HE ALSO 
ORDERED STATE MUFTIS TO REVIEW ALL PROPOSED DECREES WITH 
AN ADVISORY PANEL THAT MUST INCLUDE WOMEN 
REPRESENTATIVES.  THEORETICALLY, THE GOVERNMENT'S PLAN 
FOR STANDARDIZATION OF SYARIAH LAW WILL REQUIRE THE 
AGREEMENT OF THE STATES' RULING SULTANS, BUT SUCH 
CONSTITUTIONAL NICETIES HAVE RARELY DELAYED THE PM 
BEFORE.  THE "UNIFICATION" OF SYARIAH LAW EARLY NEXT YEAR 
IS ALREADY A FAIT ACCOMPLI AND CONSERVATIVE CLERICS KNOW 
IT, BUT DON'T LIKE IT. 
 
5. (C) IN EARLY SEPTEMBER, MAHATHIR UNEXPECTEDLY TOOK UP 
THE ISLAMIC ISSUE IN HIS KEYNOTE SPEECH AT THE UMNO 
(MALAYSIA'S RULING PARTY) GENERAL ASSEMBLY.  IN HIS 
SPEECH, MAHATHIR CALLED ON MALAYS TO REJECT EXTREMISM AND 
NOTED THE RESULTS OF SECTARIAN VIOLENCE IN BOSNIA AND THE 
MIDDLE EAST.  HE SAID MOSLEMS NEEDED TO MODERNIZE THEIR 
BELIEFS AND PRACTICES IN ACCORD WITH THE CHANGED 
CONDITIONS OF MODERN LIFE.  HE ALSO CRITICIZED MOSLEMS 
WHO PUT MORE STOCK IN OUTWARD APPEARANCES (SUCH AS 
TRADITIONAL CLOTHES AND BEARDS FOR MEN AND HEADSCARVES 
FOR WOMEN) THAN IN LEADING A MORAL LIE.  SUCH A SPEECH 
MIGHT SOUND SENSIBLE ENOUGH TOWESTERN EARS, BUT BY ALL 
ACCOUNTS IT WAS A DISASER WITH THE LARGELY MALAY 
AUDIENCE (MANY OF THE EN IN WHICH, INCLUDING DEPUTY PM 
ANWAR, SPORTING RADITIONAL DRESS AND GOATEES AND MOST OF 
THE WOMN, INCLUDING ANWAR'S WIFE, WEARING HEADSCARVES). 
PRESS COMMENT AND PUBLICDISCUSSION OF THE KEYNOTE 
SPEECH, IN PREVIOUS YEARS A PROMINENT ITEM OF PULIC 
DEBATE, WAS VIRTUALLY NIL.  UMNO MEMBERS QUOTED IN THE 
PRESS WERE NON-COMMITTAL, WITH ONE SAYIG ONLY THAT THE 
TOPIC REQUIRED SERIOUS THOUGHT. AS ONE ANALYST SAID, NO 
ONE BUT MAHATHIR WOULD DRE TOUCH SUCH A SUBJECT. 
 
CONSERVATIVES COUNTER-TTACK 
---------------------------- 
 
6. (C) UNLIKE UMNO MEMBERS, SOME CONSERVATIVES DID NOT 
HESITTE TO EXPRESS THEIR OUTRAGE OVER MAHATHIR'S ATTACK 
ON "EXTREMIST" ISLAM.  MALAYSIA'S SOLE ISLAMIC PPOSITION 
PARTY, PAS, ISSUED A POINT FOR POINT REBUTTAL ON ITS WEB 
SITE AND IN THE PARTY NEWSPAPER.  THE PAS PARTY NEWSPAPER 
ALSO DROPPED A BOMBSHELL BY REPORTING THAT THE PROMINENT 
MUFTI OF SELANGOR STATE HAD CALLED MAHATHIR AN APOSTATE. 
THOUGH THE MUFTI LATER DENIED THE REPORT, MANY (SECOND 
HAND) SOURCES CLAIM THE QUOTATION WAS ACCURATE.  ONE 
SOURCE NOTED THAT THE SELANGOR MUFTI NOW GETS A WARM 
RECEPTION WHEN HE VISITS RELIGIOUS LEADERS THROUGHOUT THE 
COUNTRY.  REPORTEDLY, FRIDAY SERMONS AT MANY MOSQUES HAVE 
INCLUDED BOTH OBLIQUE AND DIRECT CRITICISM OF THE 
GOVERNMENT.  THE POLICE CONFIRMED PUBLICLY THAT ANONYMOUS 
"POISON PEN" LITERATURE CRITICIZING THE PM IS CIRCULATING 
AT MOSQUES. 
 
GOVERNMENT TIGHTENS SCREWS 
-------------------------- 
 
7. (U) THE GOVERNMENT HAS RESPONDED FIRMLY TO AGITATION 
BY RELIGIOUS CONSERVATIVES.  AFTER THE APOSTATE REPORT, 
THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED IT WOULD ENFORCE A PREVIOUSLY 
IGNORED BAN ON STREET SALES OF THE PAS NEWSPAPER (UNDER 
MALAYSIAN LAW PARTY PUBLICATIONS MAY ONLY BE DISTRIBUTED 
TO PARTY MEMBERS).  MAHATHIR SAID "SINCE WE FIND THE 
TABLOID IS LIBELOUS, WE WILL ENFORCE THE BAN 
IMMEDIATELY."  ON OCTOBER 14, GOVERNMENT MINISTER IN THE 
PM'S DEPARTMENT  ABDUL HAMID OTHMAN WARNED MOSLEM GROUPS 
NOT TO "UNDERMINE THE GOVERNMENT."  HE SAID THE 
GOVERNMENT WAS AWARE OF SOME RELIGIOUS LEADERS' ATTEMPTS 
TO FOMENT TENSION IN RURAL AND URBAN AREAS AND WAS 
MONITORING MOSLEM GROUPS.  ON OCTOBER 15, THE UMNO- 
CONTROLLED STATE GOVERNMENT OF SELANGOR ANNOUNCED THE 
TERM OF THE MUFTI OF SELANGOR WOULD NOT BE EXTENDED.  THE 
CHIEF MINISTER OF SELANGOR SAID THE STATE NEEDED A MUFTI 
WHOSE VIEWS "WERE ACCEPTABLE TO ALL."  GRUMBLING IN THE 
RELIGIOUS COMMUNITY LED ABDUL HAMID TO SAY ON OCTOBER 19 
THAT THE "DECISION IS FINAL" AND WAS TAKEN BECAUSE OF THE 
MUFTI'S ADVANCED AGE.  THE MINISTER'S STATEMENT WAS A BIT 
CURIOUS FOR TWO REASONS: 1) CURTAILING OF THE MUFTI'S 
TERM WAS SUPPOSED TO HAVE BEEN A STATE, NOT A FEDERAL 
DECISION; AND 2) THE PM HIMSELF HAS REPEATEDLY STATED 
THAT HE WILL NOT STEP DOWN, THOUGH HE IS ONE YEAR OLDER 
THAN THE MUFTI. 
 
VIEWS FROM THE STREET 
--------------------- 
 
8. (C) MANY MALAYS, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS, SYMPATHIZE 
SOMEWHAT WITH THE PM'S VIEWS ON RELIGIOUS ZEALOTRY.  THE 
BEAUTY PAGEANT CASE STRUCK MANY AS INDEED EXTREME (IT 
TURNED OUT THAT RELIGIOUS POLICE HAD BOUGHT TICKETS TO 
THE SHOW AND EATEN THE DINNER PROVIDED BEFORE SLAPPING 
HANDCUFFS ON THE MALAY WOMEN IN A WAY DESIGNED TO BE 
HUMILIATING).  PROPONENTS OF CONSERVATIVE ISLAM ARE THUS 
A VOCAL MINORITY, THOUGH WITH SUBSTANTIAL RESERVOIRS OF 
SUPPORT IN THE COUNTRYSIDE, ON THE EAST COAST, AND AMONG 
SOME POCKETS OF RELIGIOUS URBAN DWELLERS.  NONETHELESS, 
MAHATHIR'S REMARKS AT THE UMNO GENERAL ASSEMBLY RAISED 
CONCERNS EVEN AMONG MORE SECULARLY MINDED MALAYS.  ONE 
PROMINENT UMNO POLITICIAN ASKED US RHETORICALLY: "WHAT 
WILL THE PM SAY NEXT, THAT WE SHOULD EAT PORK?"  THIS IS 
PERHAPS NOT A FAIR CHARACTERIZATION OF MAHATHIR'S VIEWS, 
BUT IT SHOWS THE ANXIETY THAT EVEN MODERATES FEEL ABOUT 
THE TONE AND DIRECTION OF HIS IDEAS ON "MODERNIZING" 
ISLAM. 
 
 
WOMEN AND ISLAM 
--------------- 
 
9. (U) ISLAMIC WOMEN ACTIVISTS, ON THE OTHER HAND, ARE 
FULLY BEHIND MAHATHIR.  GROUPS LIKE "SISTERS OF ISLAM" 
HAVE LONG BEEN AGITATING FOR MANY OF THE SAME REFORMS 
MAHATHIR HAS PROPOSED.  THE MODERNIZATION OF ISLAMIC 
ATTITUDES TOWARD WOMEN AND THE CREATION OF LEGAL AND 
SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS THAT BETTER PROTECT THE RIGHTS OF 
MOSLEM WOMEN ARE FULLY CONSONANT WITH MAHATHIR'S IDEAS. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
10. (C) THE PM HAS BEEN ON A VERBAL RAMPAGE LATELY, 
UTTERING BIZARRE REMARKS (LIKE HIS ANTI-SEMITIC COMMENTS 
LAST WEEK) THAT ALMOST SEEM PURPOSELY SELF-DESTRUCTIVE. 
WHILE WE FOCUS ON MAHATHIR'S ANTI-WESTERN REMARKS, IT IS 
WORTH REMEMBERING THAT MAHATHIR LASHES OUT AGAINST 
ANYTHING HE DOESN'T LIKE, FROM LITTERBUGS TO "RADICAL 
ISLAM."  HE CONSISTENTLY ADVOCATES A MODERATE ISLAM 
SQUARELY IN LINE WITH U.S. INTERESTS AND VALUES.  THE PM, 
FOR BETTER OR WORSE, IS NOT AFRAID TO TAKE ON ANYONE, 
INCLUDING CONSERVATIVE ISLAMIC GROUPS THAT GENERALLY HAVE 
NEGATIVE VIEWS TOWARD THE U.S.  MAHATHIR IS ALSO 
IMPORTANT AS A VOICE OF MODERATION WITHIN THE 
INTERNATIONAL ISLAMIC COMMUNITY.  THOUGH THE PM'S HEIR 
APPARENT, DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER ANWAR, IS THE PM'S "GOOD 
CONSCIENCE," ANWAR HAS NOT PROVEN HE HAS EITHER THE 
POLITICAL STANDING OR THE DESIRE TO TAKE ON CONSERVATIVE 
ISLAM.  ANWAR STARTED HIS CAREER AS A MOSLEM ACTIVIST AND 
SEEMS LOATH TO CONFRONT HIS FORMER ASSOCIATES.  FOR 
EXAMPLE, ANWAR'S REACTION TO THE BEAUTY PAGEANT INCIDENT, 
WHICH HAPPENED WHILE THE PM WAS OUT OF THE COUNTRY AND 
ANWAR WAS IN CHARGE, WAS MUCH LESS VIGOROUS.  MOREOVER, 
ANWAR, IF HE DOES BECOME THE NEXT PM, WILL NOT HAVE 
MAHATHIR'S ALMOST UNQUESTIONED AUTHORITY.  THUS, FOR 
POLITICAL REASONS HE MAY BE RELUCTANT TO TAKE STRONG 
STANDS THAT UPSET THE VOCAL RELIGIOUS CONSTITUENCY. 
 
IN THE LONG RUN ... 
------------------- 
 
11. (C) IN THE LONG RUN DEMOGRAPHICS WILL PROBABLY 
DICTATE AN INCREASED ROLE FOR ISLAM IN MALAYSIA.  MALAYS 
NOW CONSTITUTE 55 PERCENT OF MALAYSIA'S POPULATION. 
GOVERNMENT PRO-NATALIST POLICIES FOR MALAYS ARE PREDICTED 
TO LEAD TO A 70 PERCENT MALAY MAJORITY BY 2020.  SOME 
ANALYSTS SAY THAT URBANIZATION AND ECONOMIC MODERNIZATION 
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASINGLY SECULAR MALAY COMMUNITY. 
RECENT EVENTS SHOW THE OPPOSITE ALSO COULD HAPPEN, 
HOWEVER.  AS THE OUTSIDE WORLD IMPINGES ON TRADITIONAL 
MALAY CULTURE, MANY MALAYS SEEM TO BE REACTING BY TURNING 
BACK TO THEIR ISLAMIC ROOTS -- AT LEAST IN EXTERNAL FORMS 
OF OBSERVANCE.  FOR INSTANCE, OVER THE PAST DECADE 
NOTICEABLY MORE MALAY WOMEN NOW WEAR HEADSCARVES.  THIS 
ISLAMIC RESURGENCE, EVEN IN ITS MILD MALAYSIAN FORM, 
WORRIES MALAYSIA'S NON-MALAY COMMUNITIES.  GIVEN 
POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES, IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER 
MAHATHIR'S SUCCESSOR (WHETHER ANWAR OR SOMEONE ELSE) WILL 
HAVE SUFFICIENT AUTHORITY TO MAKE SURE DIFFERENCES DO NOT 
GET OUT OF HAND.  WE EXPECT, THEREFORE, ISLAMIC ISSUES 
BECOME TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT IN COMING YEARS. 
 
MALOTT