US embassy cable - 03ANKARA4110

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 004110 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY'S OPPOSITION CHP STILL WALKING TIGHTROPE ON 
SUPPORT FOR EU REFORM 
 
REF: A. ANKARA 3732 
     B. ANKARA 3974 
 
 
(U) Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter. 
Reason: 1.5 (b,d). 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: AK government says it will pursue as one or 
two additional EU reform packages (the seventh and eighth) 
before Parliament goes on delayed recess this summer. 
Opposition CHP supported the sixth package in June 20 vote, 
but is now attempting to put the breaks on the government's 
reform drive.  CHP is in a bind: the party does not want to 
appear to be on the wrong side of pro-reform public opinion, 
but it also wants to reflect military-Turkish State equities 
-- and is loath to get too far ahead of the generals and 
other elements of the Establishment.  End Summary. 
 
 
------------------------ 
Package in Sezer's Hands 
------------------------ 
 
 
2. (C) Parliament last week adopted the sixth EU reform 
package, which President Sezer now must either sign or send 
back to the legislature by 4 July.  The package included most 
of what the ruling AK Party had originally proposed, minus 
some proposals that main opposition CHP had raised with us 
previously as redlines (ref A).  Building on this momentum, 
AK has promised a seventh -- and possibly an eighth -- 
package of comprehensive reforms including legislation that 
would: 1) formally reduce the role of the military in 
politics (ref B); and 2) make sweeping but as yet unspecified 
constitutional changes, before Parliament goes on recess in 
August. 
 
 
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Baykal Speaks 
------------- 
 
 
3. (C) Partly in order to break AK's momentum, CHP ("the 
Party of Ataturk") is now expressing reservations about the 
need for further reform so quickly.  In a June 24 press 
interview, CHP leader Baykal averred that his party will not 
support, at least for now, a seventh or eighth package of 
EU-related legislation.  Baykal offered the following reasons: 
 
 
-- There is no need for further changes to the constitution 
in order for Turkey to get a date to begin EU negotiations. 
"When Portugal began negotiating with the EU, there was still 
a clause in its constitution giving 'intervention authority' 
to the military."  Moreover, "(German Chancellor) Schroeder 
and (French President) Chirac have already said it is all 
done," he said; 
 
 
-- The government should now focus on implementation of 
existing reforms vice trying to push through more proposals; 
 
 
-- CHP will not endorse amending the constitution unless the 
government first agrees to restrict parliamentary immunity, 
which has protected M.P.s from prosecution for corruption or 
other criminal charges. 
 
 
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Baykal Praises TGS 
------------------ 
 
 
4. (C) In his June 24 speech before the CHP parliamentary 
group, Baykal led off with particularly strong praise for the 
military's ostensible support for reform, including the 
General Staff's recent decision to reduce length of 
obligatory military service for conscripts.  Baykal expressed 
the timing of the decision as "perfect," and as "a decision 
that suits the Armed Forces."  (Note: some mainstream press 
commentators suggest that the TGS made the move now in part 
to undercut increasingly vocal calls for budgetary and other 
military-related reforms.  The idea has been a pet project of 
TGS Chief Gen. Ozkok for years, however.  The military began 
staff action on the issue as soon as Ozkok assumed office 
last year.  End note.) 
 
 
---------------- 
M.P.s Falling In 
---------------- 
 
 
5. (C) In separate meetings June 25, CHP M.P.s Mehmet 
Yildirim and Engin Altay confirmed to poloff that while CHP 
wholeheartedly supports EU membership, the party will not 
back additional reform packages as they are currently 
envisioned. 
 
 
-- Both objected to the government couching the reforms in EU 
terms only, and said that the government "should focus on 
those things that are good for the country, not just good for 
EU membership."  Altay, member of the Human Rights Committee, 
explained that "Turkey should make these changes because it 
is good for the Turkish people, not because the EU wants 
Turkey to."  (Note: PM Erdogan and AK say the same thing, 
even as they support rapid reform.  End note.) 
 
 
-- Echoing Baykal -- and each other -- the M.P.s lamented 
that AK had not yet addressed immunity, which they insist 
should be AK's first priority before undertaking more changes 
to the constitution. 
-- Both claimed that one of CHP's objections is that AK does 
not share enough information with the opposition (note: a 
charge CHP also leveled at AK during the run-up to the 
negative 1 March vote on deployment of U.S. troops.  End 
note).  Yildirim, a garlic grower from Kastamonu province 
with ties to Baykal going back two decades, averred that CHP 
never knows what AKP will try to include in the reform 
packages.  As an example, Yildirim pointed to AK's apparent 
desire to increase by several thousand the number of 
employees at the Religious Affairs Directorate (Diyanet -- 
septel). 
 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
 
6. (C) In citing the importance of implementation of existing 
reforms, Baykal makes an important point.  However, whether 
this objection and CHP's attempt to force AK to amend the 
constitution to lift parliamentary immunity legitimize CHP's 
policy of legislative delay are another matter.  On the 
reform issue, CHP is caught in a bind.  On the one hand, it 
wants EU membership and therefore must be careful not to be 
seen as opposing Turkey's EU drive.  On the other hand, CHP 
-- already gearing up for local elections, which must be held 
by April 2004 -- wants to prevent AK from taking too much 
credit.  Moreover, the party is: 1) highly sensitive to 
arguments espoused in military and other Establishment 
circles about the potential danger to the status quo 
presented by EU-related reforms; and 2) temperamentally 
ill-suited to getting ahead of the rest of the Establishment 
on such issues.  As always, CHP will listen intently for cues 
from such circles while formulating its approach. 
PEARSON