US embassy cable - 03ABUJA1107

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001107 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
STATE FOR AF/W, INR AND EB 
STATE PASS USTR 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2008 
TAGS: EPET, ENRG, ELAB, PINS, PGOV, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: NLC THREATENS GENERAL STRIKE OVER FUEL 
PRICE HIKE 
 
REF: ABUJA 01091 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter; Reasons 1.5 (B) and 
(D) 
 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) called on 
June 24 for a nationwide strike beginning Monday June 30 to 
protest the GON's fuel price hike.  Some in the NLC 
leadership were lukewarm about a strike; however, the 
decision was no surprise.  The Union's long standing and 
perhaps its most well known position on any public policy was 
to oppose any fuel price hike on which it was not consulted. 
In raising fuel prices last week, the GON bypassed the NLC. 
Since the GON ignored labor, the Union had no choice but to 
strike, according to labor officials.  The anticipated strike 
may pose a compound challenge for the Government.  Not only 
must it contend with the NLC and public anger over the price 
hike, the Government must also expect that opposition 
politicians, still smarting over the April elections, will 
try to exploit the situation. 
 
 
Sporadic Protests 
----------------- 
 
 
2. (C) According to press reports and Embassy sources, last 
week's fuel price hike has generated localized protests and 
fisticuffs in a few cities.  Students in Ibadan, the Yoruba 
southwest and Obasanjo's political backyard, blocked 
intersections, burned tires and shouted anti-Obasanjo 
slogans.  In Kano, there were scuffles in fuel queues. There 
was also a small peaceful protest in Abuja on June 23. 
Transportation workers have vowed to join in any labor action 
to protest the hike. The National Association of Road 
Transport Owners threatened to halt all long distance bus 
operations in the country until fuel prices are lowered. 
 
 
Opposition Figures Welcome A Strike 
----------------------------------- 
 
 
3. (C) Opposition figures are enamored with prospects of a 
national strike.  They will hope to ride labor's coattails to 
exploit the strike for their own objectives.  Having called 
for mass protest against the Government but not finding a way 
to stoke it, these politicians believe the price increase has 
provided a perfect filip.  Obasanjo and his allies are not 
unaware of the risks.  They likely will employ both the 
carrot and stick to douse labor's ardor and to keep their 
political opposition fragmented and off-balance. 
 
 
GON VS. NLC--Round Three 
------------------------ 
 
 
4. (C)  When the GON raised fuel prices in June 2000 and 
January 2002, it also refused to accede to labor's demands to 
rescind or lower the price increase. In 2000, the NLC 
successfully orchestrated a strike, causing government to 
soften the price increase.  In 2002, the strike fizzled 
quickly; government refused to reduce the new price. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
 
5. (C) Again, the NLC has called for a strike due to a gas 
price increase.  This puts the NLC leadership on the line. 
Already this year, the NLC has been unpersuasive in getting 
the GON to honor a 12.5% wage increases as agreed upon early 
last year. Some NLC members have grumbled that the Congress' 
leadership did not press hard enough for the wage increase. 
They fear NLC President Adams Oshiomole has gotten too cozy 
with President Obasanjo.  Now that the strike is on, they 
will be watching closely to see who--Oshiomole or 
Obasanjo--blinks first.  If it is Oshiomole, they will cry 
betrayal.  However, that would be unfair to the labor 
stalwart.  Labor as a whole does not seem enthusiastic about 
the strike.  They feel compelled to take it because the 
Government ignored the NLC when it announced the price hike. 
 
 
6. (C) The NLC is probably delaying the strike until Monday 
to allow public sentiment to foment, in hopes that the GON be 
more amenable to negotiation.  Additionally, the NLC has 
traditionally struck on Mondays, because people have been 
more likely to stay home, in effect, extending their 
weekends. It seems highly unlikely that the GON will rescind 
or reduce the increase by Monday.  Thus, the NLC will likely 
strike.  There will be popular support but to what extent is 
hard to divine.  If the strike gains traction, Obasanjo would 
be faced with the first crisis of his Administration without 
a Cabinet, including a Minister of Labor, in place. This 
might not only be Obasanjo's third showdown with labor over 
fuel prices (2000 and 2002 being the other).  This might be 
the first test of the tensile strength of Obasanjo's second 
term mandate. END COMMENT. 
JETER