US embassy cable - 97GABORONE4838

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 GABORONE 004838 
 
 
DEPT FOR AF/S -- KIM-SCOTT 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  09/03/03 
TAGS: PREL, ECIN, ECON, KPRP 
SUBJECT:  A SADC PRIMER: TIME FOR A REVISED EDITION? 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: SCOTT DELISI, CHARGE, AMEMBASSY GABORONE 
REASON:  1.5 (B) 
 
REFTEL: A) PRETORIA 6853, B) STATE 115688, C) PRETORIA 8653 
 
1.  SUMMARY.  SOUTHERN AFRICA IS INCREASINGLY TOUTED AS THE 
CONTINENT'S ENGINE OF GROWTH, WITH THE SOUTHERN AFRICAN 
DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY (SADC) DRIVING THE TRAIN.  SADC HAS 
MATURED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE ITS FORMATION IN 1992, BUT FORGING 
REGIONAL COOPERATION FROM NATIONALIST PROCLIVITIES IS AS 
DELICATE A PROCESS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA AS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 
AND NORTH AMERICA.  THE SADC SECRETARIAT, WITH ITS AMORPHOUS 
ROLE AND LIMITED RESOURCES, HAS PROVEN TO BE NO MATCH FOR 
STRONG NATIONAL LEADERS WITH SOMETIMES CONFLICTING IDEOLOGICAL 
PERSPECTIVES, WHO HAVE OFTEN DOMINATED THE ORGANIZATION.  AS 
ITS MANDATE EXPANDS BEYOND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TO 
STATESMANSHIP, SADC IS STRUGGLING TO LIVE UP TO THE WORLD'S 
EPXECTATIONS.  WHETHER SADC'S ORIGINAL STRUCTURE IS UP TO THE 
TASK IS CURRENTLY UNDER DEBATE, AND PROMISES TO FEATURE 
PROMINENTLY AT THE SEPTEMBER SADC SUMMIT IN MALAWI. 
 
2.  NONETHELESS, SADC STATES HAVE MORE IN COMMON THAN JUST 
GEOGRAPHY, AND THEREIN LIES SOME OF THE ORGANIZATION'S TRUE 
POTENTIAL.  THE 12 COUNTRIES SHARE A CONSENSUAL APPROACH TO 
REGIONAL DECISION-MAKING, ESPOUSE (BUT DON'T ALWAYS PRACTICE) 
DEMOCRATIC IDEALS, AND PROMOTE A LARGELY FREE MARKET APPROACH 
TO DOING BUSINESS.  ULTIMATELY, SOUTH AFRICA, AS THE 
ORGANIZATION'S DOMINANT MEMBER, REMAINS THE KEY TO BALANCED 
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT.  ITS NEIGHBORS ARE KEEPING AN INTERESTED 
IF WARY EYE ON THE INDICATORS OF SOUTH AFRICA'S COMMITMENT TO 
REGIONAL INTEGRATION.  FOR SADC TO ACHIEVE ITS DUAL GOALS OF 
BALANCED REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND POLITICAL STABILITY 
AND SECURITY, SOUTH AFRICA AND ITS SADC PARTNERS WILL HAVE TO 
BACK THE REGIONAL INTEGRATION CONCEPT WITH MORE THAN WORDS. 
THEY HAVE TAKEN THE INITIATIVE TO ASSESS THEIR PERFORMANCE AND 
DIRECTION.  NOW THEY ARE FACING THE TRUE TEST OF REGIONAL 
INTEGRATION: IMPLEMENTING REFORMS THAT MAY INVOLVE DIFFICULT 
COMPROMISES BY SOME FOR THE GOOD OF ALL.  END SUMMARY. 
 
GENESIS 
------- 
 
3.  THE 12-MEMBER SADC EVOLVED FROM THE SOUTHERN AFRICAN 
DEVELOPMENT COORDINATING CONFERENCE (SADCC), WHICH WAS FOUNDED 
IN 1980 BY THE FRONTLINE STATES (FLS) TO ADVANCE REGIONAL 
COOPERATION AGAINST APARTHEID.  WITH APARTHEID'S DEMISE, 
SADCC'S ROLE SHIFTED FROM ISOLATING APARTHEID TO PROMOTING THE 
FLS' ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT.  IN AUGUST, 1992, "SADCC" EMERGED 
AS "SADC," WITH AN UPDATED MANDATE OF FOSTERING ECONOMIC 
PROSPERITY, DEVELOPMENT, AND STABILITY THROUGH REGIONAL TRADE 
LIBERALIZATION AND POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION. 
 
4.  WHEREAS SADCC HAD WORKED TO COORDINATE MEMBER STATES' 
ECONOMIES ON SPECIFIC PROJECTS WITH REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS, THE 
NEW SADC HAS FOCUSED ON INTEGRATING STATES' ACTIVITIES INTO 
REGIONAL ACTION.  SOUTH AFRICA, THE FORMER PARIAH, NOW PLAYS A 
PIVOTAL ROLE IN SADC'S REGIONAL INTEGRATION STRATEGY, AS DOES 
THE STABILITY OF THOSE COUNTRIES (MOZAMBIQUE, ANGOLA, NAMIBIA) 
EMERGING FROM CIVIL WAR.  THE 1992 SADC TREATY COMMITS MEMBER 
COUNTRIES TO HARMONIZE AND RATIONALIZE THEIR DEVELOPMENT 
POLICIES AND STRATEGIES; AN AMBITIOUS GOAL FOR 12 COUNTRIES 
WITH WIDELY DIFFERING CAPACITIES FOR GROWTH.  THE TREATY IS 
ENFORCEABLE THROUGH SANCTIONS, WHICH MAY BE IMPOSED AGAINST A 
MEMBER STATE THAT 1) PERSISTENTLY FAILS TO FULFILL ITS 
OBLIGATIONS UNDER THE SADC TREATY, 2) IMPLEMENTS POLICIES 
WHICH UNDERMINE THE PRINCIPLES AND OBJECTIVES OF SADC, OR 3) 
IS MORE THAN ONE YEAR OVERDUE IN PAYING ITS DUES WITHOUT 
HAVING OBTAINED A DISPENSATION FROM SADC. 
 
SUMMIT OF HEADS OF STATE 
------------------------ 
 
5.  THE TEN ORIGINAL MEMBERS (ANGOLA, BOTSWANA, LESOTHO, 
MALAWI, MOZAMBIQUE, NAMIBIA, SWAZILAND, TANZANIA, ZAMBIA, 
ZIMBABWE) WELCOMED SOUTH AFRICA INTO SADC IN AUGUST, 1994, 
FOLLOWED BY MAURITIUS IN 1995.  SOUTH AFRICA'S PRESIDENT 
MANDELA HAS BEEN CHAIRMAN OF THE SADC SUMMIT OF HEADS OF STATE 
AND GOVERNMENT (SUMMIT) SINCE 1996, REPLACING BOTSWANA'S 
PRESIDENT MASIRE WHO HELD THE OFFICE SINCE SADC'S INCEPTION. 
AS THE ULTIMATE POLICY-MAKING INSTITUTION OF SADC, THE SUMMIT 
SETS THE COMMUNITY'S OVERALL POLICY DIRECTION, CREATES 
COMMISSIONS AND OTHER INSTITUTIONS, AND APPOINTS THE EXECUTIVE 
AND DEPUTY EXECUTIVE SECRETARY OF THE SADC SECRETARIAT, 
LOCATED IN GABORONE.  THE NEXT SUMMIT MEETING, SCHEDULED TO 
BEGIN ON SEPTEMBER 8 IN MALAWI, IS EXPECTED TO TACKLE 
CONTROVERSIAL ISSUES RANGING FROM EXPANDING SADC'S MEMBERSHIP, 
TO RESTRUCTURING THE ORGANIZATION, TO FINALIZING SADC'S 
POSITION ON TRADE WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION (EU). 
COUNCIL OF MINISTERS 
-------------------- 
 
6.  THE SUMMIT IS ADVISED BY A COUNCIL OF MINISTERS, WHICH 
ALSO APPROVES SADC POLICIES, STRATEGIES AND WORK PROGRAMS. 
COMPRISED OF MINISTERS FROM EACH STATE (GENERALLY PLANNING OR 
FINANCE MINISTERS), THE COUNCIL OVERSEES THE FUNCTIONING AND 
DEVELOPMENT OF SADC AND ENSURES POLICY IMPLEMENTATION.  IT 
ALSO ASSIGNS SPECIFIC AREAS OF COOPERATION TO SECTOR 
COORDINATING UNITS ESTABLISHED WITHIN THE APPROPRIATE MINISTRY 
IN EACH MEMBER STATE.  A STANDING COMMITTEE OF OFFICIALS, 
COMPRISED OF A PERMANENT SECRETARY FROM EACH MEMBER STATE, 
ACTS AS TECHNICAL ADVISOR TO THE COUNCIL OF MINISTERS. 
MEMBERS OF THE STANDING COMMITTEE ALSO SERVE AS NATIONAL 
CONTACT POINTS RESPONSIBLE FOR SADC MATTERS, LINKING OTHER 
AGENCIES OF GOVERNMENT WITH SADC. 
 
SECTOR COORDINATING UNITS 
------------------------- 
 
7.  SADC'S EIGHTEEN SECTOR COORDINATING UNITS CURRENTLY ARE 
DIVIDED AMONGST THE TWELVE MEMBERS, WITH A SECTORAL COMMITTEE 
OF MINISTERS SUPERVISING EACH COORDINATING UNIT.  RANGING FROM 
ENERGY (ANGOLA) TO TOURISM (MAURITIUS) TO LABOR (ZAMBIA), THE 
COORDINATING UNITS SPEARHEAD THE REGIONAL POLICIES AND 
PROGRAMS FOR EACH PARTICULAR SECTOR.  INDIVIDUAL MEMBER STATES 
PROVIDE FUNDING AND STAFF TO ADMINISTER THEIR RESPECTIVE 
SECTOR COORDINATING UNITS, WHICH FUNCTION AS PART OF THAT 
STATE'S NATIONAL GOVERNMENT. 
 
8.  THE CAPACITY OF INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES TO STEER SADC'S 
PROGRAMS IN PARTICULAR SECTORS VARIES CONSIDERABLY.  LOGJAMS 
HAVE IMPEDED PROGRESS WHEN EXPERTISE, EFFICIENCY, OR DOMESTIC 
DISTRACTIONS PREVENT THE MINISTRY FROM PROMOTING ITS SECTOR 
EFFECTIVELY AND DYNAMICALLY.  ANGOLA'S PREOCCUPATION WITH 
RESOLVING ITS CIVIL WAR HAS WEAKENED ITS ABILITY TO LEAD SADC 
ON ENERGY ISSUES, THE SECTOR IT HEADS AND ARGUABLY ONE OF THE 
SECTORS MOST CRITICAL TO THE REGION'S MODERNIZATION. 
SWAZILAND'S LACK OF EXPERTISE (AND FAILURE TO SEEK IT OUT) IN 
HUMAN RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN BLAMED FOR THE SLOW 
PROGRESS IN THAT VITAL SECTOR.  ADDED TO SUCH WEAKNESSES IS A 
LACK OF INTER-SECTORAL COORDINATION THAT FURTHER DISRUPTS 
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS.  OFTEN BLAMED FOR SADC'S UNEVEN 
PERFORMANCE, THE COORDINATING UNITS REVEAL THE HANDICAP THAT 
THE SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL DISPARITIES AMONG THE SADC 
COUNTRIES CAUSES. 
 
CONSOLIDATION PROPOSAL: EFFICIENT BUT UNPOPULAR 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
9.  IN AN ATTEMPT TO REVITALIZE SADC AND IMPROVE ITS 
EFFECTIVENESS, MEMBERS COMMISSIONED A REVIEW OF THE 
ORGANIZATION'S STRUCTURE IN 1995.  THE REPORT RECOMMENDED 
CONSOLIDATING THE COORDINATING UNITS INTO FIVE DIRECTORATES 
THAT WOULD FOCUS MORE ON POLICY THAN PROJECT COORDINATION. 
EXISTING SECTORS WOULD BE CLUSTERED TOGETHER IN KEY AREAS OF 
COOPERATION FOR GREATER FLEXIBILITY: 1) AGRICULTURE, NATURAL 
RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT; 2) HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT, 
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY; 3) INFRASTRUCTURE, COMMUNICATIONS AND 
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY; 4) TRADE, INDUSTRY, INVESTMENT AND 
FINANCE; AND 5) COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT, CULTURE AND 
INFORMATION.  A POSSIBLE SIXTH DIRECTORATE FOR WATER RESOURCE 
MANAGEMENT MIGHT BE REQUIRED, ACCORDING TO THE REPORT.  THE 
DIRECTORATES WOULD BE FUNDED BY REGIONAL RESOURCES (IN PART TO 
REDUCE DEPENDENCY ON DONORS) AND STAFFED BY REGIONAL 
PROFESSIONALS. 
 
10.  WHILE THIS MAY BE A MORE EFFICIENT APPROACH, IT HAS 
ENCOUNTERED FIERCE RESISTANCE FROM A NUMBER OF SADC STATES, 
SOME OF WHICH WOULD LOSE THEIR SECTOR OF RESPONSIBILITY.  AS 
THE REPORT POINTS OUT, SADC'S PRESENT STRUCTURE HAS ENSURED A 
SENSE OF "OWNERSHIP" BY MEMBER STATES AND AVOIDED EXCESSIVE 
TENSIONS WITHIN THE ORGANIZATION BY EQUALIZING THE FLOW OF 
BENEFITS.  DECIDING WHERE THE DIRECTORATES WOULD BE BASED 
WOULD LIKELY INVOLVE A STICKY, AND HIGHLY CHARGED, DEBATE 
AMIDST FEARS OF CERTAIN STATES DOMINATING THE ORGANIZATION. 
AS USAID DISCOVERED IN 1996 WHEN SADC MEMBERS CRITICIZED THE 
SECRETARIAT FOR SIGNING AGREEMENTS ON SADC'S BEHALF, 
ENTHUSIASM FOR REGIONAL COOPERATION HAS NOT OVERCOME CONCERNS 
ABOUT CEDING NATIONAL CONTROL, IF NOT SOVEREIGNTY, TO A 
CENTRAL, SUPRA-NATIONAL SECRETARIAT. 
 
11.  COST CONCERNS MAY ALSO WORK AGAINST CONSOLIDATION. 
CURRENTLY, EACH STATE CONTROLS EXPENDITURES FOR THE 
OPERATIONAL EXPENSES OF ITS SECTOR.  UNDER THE NEW PROPOSAL, 
MEMBERS WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A CENTRAL FUND THAT WOULD FINANCE 
ADMINISTRATION OF THE DIRECTORATES.  SOME STATES FEAR THIS 
MIGHT BE MORE EXPENSIVE THAN THE PRESENT ARRANGEMENT, WHICH 
LETS THEM DECIDE HOW MUCH (OR HOW LITTLE) TO SPEND ON THEIR 
SADC SECTOR OF RESPONSIBILITY.  THE REPORT SUGGESTS THAT 
CONTRIBUTIONS MIGHT BE DETERMINED BASED ON POPULATION, GDP, OR 
GDP PER CAPITA; OPTIONS THAT AGAIN RAISE CONCERNS OF DOMINANCE 
BY SOME MEMBERS.  THE RECOMMENDATION THAT SADC SHOULD SOLICIT 
GREATER PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT IN ITS PROGRAM OF ACTION HAS 
ALSO GENERATED CONTROVERSY. 
 
12.  THE REPORT'S PROPOSALS WERE DISCUSSED BY DELEGATIONS FROM 
THE 12 SADC STATES AT A RECENT REGIONAL WORKSHOP IN GABORONE 
ON THE RATIONALIZATION OF THE SADC PROGRAM OF ACTION.  AFTER A 
CONTENTIOUS OPENING SESSION, THE WORKSHOP ORGANIZERS CHANGED 
THE FORMAT TO CLOSED SESSION DISCUSSIONS.  THE WORKSHOP'S 
RECOMMENDATIONS WILL BE CONSIDERED AT THE UPCOMING COUNCIL OF 
MINISTERS' MEETING IN BLANTYRE AT WHICH THE RESTRUCTURING 
ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE AGENDA. 
 
 
SADC SECRETARIAT 
---------------- 
 
13.  THE REPORT ALSO TARGETED THE SADC SECRETARIAT FOR 
STREAMLINING, SUGGESTING THAT ITS FUNCTIONS BE LIMITED TO 
POLICY HARMONIZATION, LOBBYING, PUBLIC RELATIONS AND 
INFORMATION DISSEMINATION, AND ADMINISTRATION.  CURRENTLY, THE 
SECRETARIAT'S PROFESSIONAL STAFF IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRATEGIC 
PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT OF SADC PROGRAMS, AS WELL AS GENERAL 
ADMINISTRATION OF THE COMMUNITY, INCLUDING FINANCES AND 
DIPLOMATIC REPRESENTATION.  OPERATIONAL COSTS OF RUNNING THE 
SECRETARIAT ARE FUNDED FROM CONTRIBUTIONS BY MEMBER STATES IN 
EQUAL AMOUNTS SET BY THE COUNCIL. 
 
14.  HEADQUARTERED IN GABORONE, THE SECRETARIAT HAS BEEN 
CRITICIZED AS INEFFICIENT AND INEFFECTIVE.  SOME MEMBERS 
ADVOCATE ABOLISHING THE SECRETARIAT ALTOGETHER, ALTHOUGH NO 
REALISTIC ALTERNATIVES HAVE BEEN PRESENTED.  EARLIER THIS 
YEAR, THE SECRETARIAT CAME UNDER ATTACK FOR MISMANAGEMENT, 
WITH SOME MEMBERS REPORTEDLY CALLING FOR THE REMOVAL OF 
EXECUTIVE SECRETARY DR. KAIRE MBUENDE OF NAMIBIA.  DR. MBUENDE 
ESCAPED RELATIVELY UNSCATHED, THOUGH HIS LEADERSHIP STYLE HAS 
NOT MADE HIM POPULAR.  SADC HEADS OF STATE WILL DECIDE AT THE 
MALAWI MEETING WHETHER TO REAPPOINT DR. MBUENDE FOR ANOTHER 
FOUR YEARS WHEN HIS PRESENT TERM EXPIRES IN DECEMBER.  AS THE 
RESTRUCTURING REPORT POINTS OUT, MANY OF THE COMPLAINTS LODGED 
AGAINST THE SECRETARIAT COULD BE ADDRESSED BY CLARIFYING THE 
SECRETARIAT'S MANDATE AND ALLOCATING SUFFICIENT RESOURCES FOR 
IT TO IMPLEMENT ITS RESPONSIBILITIES. 
 
 
PROTOCOLS: JUST ONE OF MANY STEPS 
--------------------------------- 
 
15.  WHILE IT GRAPPLES WITH RATIONALIZING ITS PROGRAM OF 
ACTION AND STRUCTURE, THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF OPPORTUNITIES 
FOR SADC TO BUILD A REPUTATION AS AN INFLUENTIAL REGIONAL 
BLOCK.  THE WEAK LINK AT THIS STAGE SEEMS TO BE TOO MANY 
OPPORTUNITIES TOO SOON, WITH SADC OUTGROWING ITS RESOURCES AND 
CAPABILITIES, ACCORDING TO THE RESTRUCTURING REPORT.  SADC HAS 
FORGED AN ARRAY OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL TIES IN THE 
FORM OF PROTOCOLS THAT AFFIRM GENERAL PRINCIPLES; NOW IT IS 
FACED WITH THE COMPLEX AND TIME-CONSUMING TASK OF PUTTING 
FLESH ON THE BONES OF THOSE PROTOCOLS BEFORE EVENTS OVERTAKE 
THE PROCESS.  USAID'S REGIONAL CENTER FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA 
(RCSA) IS FUNDING WORKSHOPS AND PROGRAMS TO SPEED UP 
IMPLEMENTATION OF SADC POLICY AGREEMENTS AND PROTOCOLS AND TO 
ENSURE THE FINAL PRODUCTS REFLECT THE NEEDS AND PRIORITIES OF 
ALL STAKEHOLDERS. 
 
16.  IN THE MEANTIME, THE MOMENTUM FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THIS 
BURGEONING REGION PUSHES SADC STATES INTO ACTION, SOMETIMES 
UNILATERALLY, WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF LONG-TERM, COORDINATED 
REGIONAL PLANNING.  NAMIBIA'S RECENT PLAN TO DIVERT WATER FROM 
THE OKAVANGO RIVER, WHICH ORIGINATES IN THE ANGOLAN HIGHLANDS 
AND EMPTIES INTO BOTSWANA'S FAMED OKAVANGO DELTA, HIGHLIGHTED 
THE NEED FOR A REGIONAL APPROACH TO MANAGEMENT OF SHARED 
WATERCOURSES.  MEMBER STATES SIGNED THE SADC PROTOCOL ON 
SHARED WATERCOURSES IN 1995 BUT IT WILL BE MONTHS BEFORE THAT 
IS TRANSLATED INTO POLICIES AND ACTION.  DROUGHT-PRONE NAMIBIA 
MAY NOT BE ABLE TO WAIT FOR REGIONAL COORDINATION, THOUGH IT 
HAS ENGAGED IN REGULAR CONSULTATIONS WITH THE BOTSWANA 
GOVERNMENT REGARDING THE PIPELINE PROJECT'S IMPLEMENTATION. 
 
17.  THE PLIGHT OF THE SADC TRADE PROTOCOL, ONE OF THE 
ORGANIZATION'S PRIMARY RAISON D'ETRE, DEMONSTRATES THE 
CONSEQUENCES OF TRYING TO DO TOO MUCH, TOO FAST.  HEATED 
DEBATE OVER SUCH CONTENTIOUS POINTS AS FREE MOVEMENT OF 
CAPITAL AND LABOR, TARIFF REDUCTIONS, STANDARDIZATION OF 
REGULATIONS AND LEGAL PROCEDURES HAS MADE PROGRESS ON 
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE TRADE PROTOCOL (RATIFIED BY ONLY TWO 
COUNTRIES TO DATE) PAINFULLY SLOW.  A REGION-WIDE SHORTAGE OF 
EXPERTS TO NEGOTIATE COMPLICATED TARIFF REDUCTIONS ADDS TO 
EXISTING CAPACITY DISPARITIES WITHIN SADC, MAKING IT EVEN MORE 
DIFFICULT TO FINALIZE PROTOCOL DETAILS.  (REFTEL A). 
 
18.  IN THE MEANTIME, SOME SADC STATES ARE NEGOTIATING AND 
SIGNING BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENTS WHILE OTHERS DEFER 
NMGOTIATIONS TO ENSURE CONSISTENCY WITH THE REGIONAL 
AGREEMENT.  SOUTH AFRICA HAS HELD UP ITS TRADE DISCUSSIONS 
WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION, CLAIMING THAT IT CANNOT SUBMIT ITS 
PROPOSAL FOR A FREE TRADE PACT WITH THE EU UNTIL THE SADC 
TRADE PROTOCOL TERMS HAVE BEEN FINALIZED, ACCORDING TO PRESS 
REPORTS.  AT A RECENT MEETING IN TANZANIA, SADC TRADE 
MINISTERS WERE ABLE TO AGREE ON A GENERAL TIMETABLE FOR 
NEGOTIATIONS ON A PROPOSAL TO FREE REGIONAL TRADE EXCHANGES 
WITHIN EIGHT YEARS; A START, BUT A LONG WAY FROM PROCLAIMING A 
SADC FREE TRADE AREA. 
 
 
POLITICAL ORGAN 
--------------- 
 
19.  RECOGNIZING THAT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DEPENDS ON 
POLITICAL STABILITY, SADC HAS BROADENED ITS MISSION TO INCLUDE 
POLITICS AND SECURITY.  IN 1995, MEMBERS ESTABLISHED THE ORGAN 
FOR POLITICS, SECURITY AND DEFENSE (POLITICAL ORGAN) TO 
PROMOTE COOPERATION ON POLITICAL AND SECURITY ISSUES OF A 
REGIONAL NATURE.  CURRENTLY CHAIRED BY ZIMBABWE'S PRESIDENT 
MUGABE, THE POLITICAL ORGAN IS AIMED AT CONFLICT PREVENTION 
AND MANAGEMENT.  THE GREAT LAKES CRISES AND THE AFRICAN CRISIS 
RESPONSE INITIATIVE (ACRI) PRESENTED TWO RECENT OPPORTUNITIES 
FOR SADC TO RESPOND REGIONALLY TO EVENTS OF GLOBAL IMPORTANCE. 
MUGABE'S FAILURE TO CONVENE THE ORGAN TO ADDRESS EITHER ISSUE 
CREATED A VOID WHERE SADC MIGHT HAVE HAD AN INFLUENTIAL VOICE. 
HIS TIGHT REIN NOT ONLY PREVENTED SADC FROM TAKING A FORMAL 
POSITION, IT MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR INDIVIDUAL MEMBER STATES TO 
ACT OFFICIALLY, OUT OF DEFERENCE TO THE REGIONAL BODY. 
 
20.  ZIMBABWE'S LACK OF DECISIVE RESPONSE TO UNFOLDING 
SECURITY CONCERNS MAY BE PART OF AN INTERNAL STRUGGLE BETWEEN 
MUGABE AND MANDELA TO ALTER THE PROFILE OF THE POLITICAL ORGAN 
WITHIN THE SADC ORGANIZATION, BOTSWANA DEFENSE FORCE (BDF) 
COMMANDER LT. GEN. IAN KHAMA SAID AT A JUNE MEETING WITH 
ACTING A/S TWADDELL IN WASHINGTON (REFTEL A).  KHAMA 
SPECULATED THAT MANDELA MIGHT BE SEEKING TO RE-POSITION THE 
ORGAN AS A SECTOR RATHER THAN A SEPARATE SADC ENTITY IN ORDER 
TO CURB MUGABE'S TENDENCY TO USE HIS POSITION AS ORGAN 
CHAIRPERSON TO SPEAK UNILATERALLY ON SADC'S BEHALF.  (NOTE. 
REFTEL B REFLECTS A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE ON PROPOSALS TO 
CONSOLIDATE THE SADC AND ORGAN CHAIRMANSHIPS.  END NOTE.)  IF 
KHAMA IS RIGHT, MANDELA (AND PERHAPS OTHERS) MAY HAVE HONED IN 
ON TWO IMPEDIMENTS THAT HAVE WEAKENED SADC'S ABILITY TO 
CONSOLIDATE ITS POWER AS A REGIONAL ORGANIZATION: 
PERSONALITIES AND COHESION. 
 
 
HOW BIG IS "SOUTHERN" AFRICA 
---------------------------- 
 
21.  HOW SADC CAN AND SHOULD FUNCTION TO PROMOTE REGIONALISM 
IS STILL BEING DEBATED.  THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG REGIONAL 
LEADERS (AND DONORS) ON THE DIRECTION AND PROGRESS IN SECTORS 
SOMETIMES OUTWEIGHS THE ORGANIZATION'S INPUT.  EVEN SADC'S 
COMPOSITION ISN'T FULLY SETTLED, WITH TALK OF MEMBERSHIP FOR 
THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO (DROC), KENYA, UGANDA, THE 
SEYCHELLES, AND MADAGASCAR SURFACING PERIODICALLY.  SADC 
EXECUTIVE SECRETARY MBUENDE RENEWED THE INVITATION TO KENYA 
AND UGANDA DURING JUNE MEETINGS WITH THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY 
OF THE REVITALIZED COMMISSION FOR EAST AFRICAN COOPERATION 
(EAC).  (NOTE: TANZANIA IS THE THIRD MEMBER OF THE EAC, AND 
ALSO A MEMBER OF SADC.  END NOTE.)  PRESIDENT MUGABE AND 
NAMIBIA'S PRESIDENT NUJOMA HAVE PUBLICLY EXPRESSED SUPPORT FOR 
DROC'S ADMISSION TO SADC, AND MEMBERSHIP APPLICATIONS BY THE 
DROC AND THE SEYCHELLES ARE UP FOR CONSIDERATION AT THE 
BLANTYRE SADC SUMMIT, ACCORDING TO DR. MBUENDE. 
 
22.  NEITHER KENYA NOR UGANDA IS EXPECTED TO ACCEPT SADC'S 
INVITATION, THOUGH NEITHER HAS OFFICIALLY REFUSED THE OFFER, 
SADC'S SENIOR ECONOMIST DR. CHUNGU MWILA TOLD POLOFF.  DR. 
MWILA PREDICTED THAT THE RESOURCE-RICH DROC WOULD JOIN SADC 
BEFORE ANY OTHER CONTENDERS, BUT ADDED THAT THE SITUATION IN 
DROC WOULD HAVE TO STABILIZE FIRST.  (COMMENT: GIVEN SADC'S 
PRIDE IN THE STABILITY AND DEMOCRATIC COMMITMENT OF ITS 
MEMBERS, AND THE RECOGNITION THAT COORDINATING 12 COUNTRIES IS 
A CHALLENGE, IT SEEMS UNLIKELY DROC MEMBERSHIP WILL BE 
APPROVED AT THIS TIME. END COMMENT.)  IT WOULD TAKE A 
UNANIMOUS DECISION OF THE SADC SUMMIT FOR A NEW COUNTRY TO BE 
ADMITTED TO SADC, AND SOME STATES, SUCH AS BOTSWANA, WOULD 
PREFER TO SEE THE ORGANIZATION RUNNING MORE EFFECTIVELY BEFORE 
NEW MEMBERS ARE ADDED. 
 
23.  A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT SADC WILL STRENGTHEN ITS 
COOPERATION WITH OTHER REGIONAL ORGANIZATIONS IN AFRICA, LATIN 
AMERICA, AND SOUTH EAST ASIA.  DR. MBUENDE HAS STATED THAT 
STRONGER "SOUTH-SOUTH" TIES WILL BOLSTER THE POSITION OF 
AFRICA WITHIN THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION (WTO), GIVING 
AFRICAN COUNTRIES MORE OF A VOICE IN SETTING THE POLICIES AND 
REGULATIONS THAT AFFECT THEM.  ENSURING COMPLEMENTARY AGENDAS 
IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT WHERE MEMBERSHIP OVERLAPS, AS IN THE 
CASE OF TANZANIA WHICH IS A MEMBER OF SADC AND THE EAC, DR. 
MBUENDE SAID FOLLOWING THE JUNE EAC MEETINGS.  HE ALSO 
RECOGNIZED THE CRITICAL ROLE REGIONAL ECONOMIC COMMUNITIES 
WILL PLAY IN BRINGING THE AFRICAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY (AEC) TO 
LIFE.  IMPROVED RELATIONS BETWEEN SADC AND THE COMMON MARKET 
FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA (COMESA), INCLUDING RECENT 
MEETINGS BETWEEN SADC'S EXECUTIVE SECRETARY MBUENDE AND 
COMESA'S SECRETARY-GENERAL ERASTUS MWENCHA, HAVE EASED THE 
RIVALRY THAT HAS HAMPERED COOPERATION BETWEEN THE TWO 
OVERLAPPING TRADE BLOCKS. 
 
 
CONSULTATION LOWERS THE LEARNING CURVE 
-------------------------------------- 
 
24.  SADC MAINTAINS REGULAR DIALOGUE WITH ITS INTERNATIONAL 
COOPERATING PARTNERS (GOVERNMENTS, NGOS) THROUGH CONSULTATIVE 
CONFERENCES AT WHICH PROGRAMS AND RESULTS ARE EVALUATED AND 
FUTURE PLANS ARE DISCUSSED.  BY INVOLVING A BROAD RANGE OF 
INTERESTED PARTIES IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING PROTOCOLS AND 
POLICIES, SADC HAS TRIED TO BREAK DOWN THE PREJUDICES OF 
GOVERNMENTS AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR, AND BUILD TRUST IN THE 
REGIONAL INTEGRATION CONCEPT.  THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL 
DISPARITIES AMONG SADC STATES FREQUENTLY TEST THE PRINCIPLES 
OF BALANCE, EQUITY AND MUTUAL BENEFIT WHICH UNDERLIE SADC'S 
MAJOR POLICY GUIDELINES. 
 
25.  ONE WAY TO BRIDGE THE GAP IS BY FINDING COMMON GROUND IN 
THE NATIONAL POLICIES AND PLANS OF MEMBER STATES.  IDENTIFYING 
WHERE COUNTRIES CAN LEARN FROM EACH OTHER AND WORKING TO 
HARMONIZE DEVELOPING POLICIES, SADC HAS SOUGHT TO PROMOTE A 
REGIONAL AGENDA.  TELECOMMUNICATIONS, IN PARTICULAR, IS A 
SECTOR WHERE SADC STATES, AT VARYING STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT, 
HAVE BENEFITED FROM LEARNING FROM EACH OTHER'S SUCCESSES AND 
FAILURES.  IN THE NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT FIELD, 
BOTSWANA'S PROGRESSIVE TECHNIQUES HAVE SET AN EXAMPLE THAT 
OTHER SADC STATES CAN ADOPT AND ADAPT.  BY SEEKING REGIONAL 
SOLUTIONS TO WHAT INITIALLY APPEAR TO BE NATIONAL PROBLEMS, 
SADC STATES ARE IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS AND EFFICIENCY OF 
SADC PROGRAMS, AND REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR CROSS-BORDER 
CONFLICTS.  TENSIONS BETWEEN BOTSWANA AND NAMIBIA OVER A 
VETERINARY FENCE CONSTRUCTED BY BOTSWANA ALONG ITS NORTHERN 
BORDER EASED AFTER SADC'S EXECUTIVE SECRETARY (ALONG WITH 
OTHERS) URGED BOTH SIDES TO FIND A SOLUTION.  ONE POSSIBILITY 
UNDER DISCUSSION IS A TRANS-BORDER PARK TO PRESERVE WILDLIFE 
MIGRATION ROUTES AND PROTECT COMMUNITY-BASED NATURAL RESOURCE 
MANAGEMENT PROJECTS. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
26.  THE SADC TREATY REQUIRES THAT STRONG MEMBERS ASSIST 
WEAKER STATES, AN OBLIGATION THAT IN PRACTICE SOMETIMES 
TRANSLATES INTO STRATEGIES THAT PROMOTE THE INTERESTS OF 
DOMINANT MEMBERS.  SACRIFICING SOVEREIGNTY FOR REGIONAL 
DECISION-MAKING REQUIRES A FLEXIBILITY THAT NOT ALL SADC 
COUNTRIES POSSESS...OR CAN AFFORD.  THE NAMIBIAN TRADE AND 
INDUSTRY MINISTER'S RECENTLY REPORTED COMMENTS THAT SOUTH 
AFRICA, RESPONDING TO DOMESTIC PRESSURES, HAS DELIBERATELY 
HAMPERED ITS NEIGHBORS' INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT IN ORDER TO 
PROTECT SOUTH AFRICAN BUSINESSES SUGGEST THAT FORGING REGIONAL 
COOPERATION WILL BE AS CHALLENGING IN SOUTHERN AFRICA AS IN 
EUROPE OR NORTH AMERICA.   WITH SADC MEMBER STATES PROGRESSING 
AT DIFFERENT PACES AND STRUGGLING WITH DIFFERENT 
DISADVANTAGES, IT WILL TAKE A FIRM COMMITMENT BY ALL 12 
MEMBERS, PARTICULARLY SOUTH AFRICA, TO PROVE THAT, ACTING 
TOGETHER, SADC COUNTRIES WILL BE BETTER OFF THAN IF THEY ACT 
ALONE. 
 
DELISI