US embassy cable - 03HARARE1293

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 001293 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, NI, ZI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER DISCOURAGED ON ZIMBABWE 
 
REF: ABUJA 1047 
 
Classified By: Joseph G. Sullivan for reasons 1.5b/d 
 
 1.(C) Nigerian High Commissioner Wilberforce Juta portrayed 
the stalemate in Zimbabwe along lines similar to those of 
reftel.  Juta believed that President Mugabe had backed away 
from agreements reached during the May visit of the 
Presidents of Nigeria, South Africa and Malawi.  He expressed 
frustration that the efforts of his President were not being 
reciprocated by the GOZ.  He considered the GOZ economic 
policies disastrous irredeemable without a political 
solution.  Juta believed that internal ZANU-PF rivalries and 
ethnic considerations explained some of ZANU's unwillingness 
to make a transition or face a near-term election.  According 
to Juta, the Nigerian Government was discouraged about the 
prospects for near-term resolution of the political crisis. 
Nonetheless, he said that President Obasanjo continued to 
maintain frequent contact with President Mbeki on Zimbabwe 
and remained interested in a positive solution. 
 
2.(C) With respect to internal ZANU-PF politics, HC Juta 
thought there were increasing support for Party Chairman John 
Nkomo as a successor to Mugabe.  Choosing an Ndebele as an 
interim leader would avoid contests among Shona contenders 
and yet would clearly have interim status since an Ndebele 
would not be accepted as a long-term leader of the party. 
Juta also commented that ZANU-PF continued to regard 
transition as an internal ZANU-PF matter and to regard the 
MDC merely as a side matter to be accommodated. 
 
3. (C) Comment:  Juta has regularly been more critical of 
President Mugabe and ZANU-PF to us than has been his 
Government in Abuja.  He will soon conclude his mission here 
in Harare after five years. 
SULLIVAN