US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB1439

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 001439 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, HR, Defense Reform (Mil & NATO) 
SUBJECT: HDZ CONVENTION: EX-CONGRESSMAN SUGGESTS U.S. 
SUPPORT FOR HDZ 
 
REF: ZAGREB 1230 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: NICHOLAS HILL, POLECON COUNSELOR, FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B) A 
ND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
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1.   (C) IVO SANADER IS PULLING OUT THE STOPS TO PRESENT HIS 
PARTY AS PRO-WEST AND RESPECTABLE.  HDZ'S ANNUAL CONVENTION 
TOOK PLACE JUNE 21, AN EVENT SOME EXPECTED TO BE A YAWNER 
SINCE NO PARTY SEATS WERE UP FOR ELECTION.  HDZ PRESENTED 
EX-U.S. CONGRESSMAN GUY VANDER JAGT AS THE CONVENTION'S 
KEYNOTE SPEAKER.  TO THUNDEROUS APPLAUSE, VANDER JAGT CLAIMED 
THAT IVO SANADER HAD THE ENDORSEMENT OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, 
IN PARTICULAR, VICE PRESIDENT CHENEY AND SECRETARY RUMSFELD. 
FOR HIS PART, SANADER'S SPEECH WAS MODERATE IN TONE.  IN 
REMARKS AFTER THE CONVENTION, HE DEFLECTED QUESTIONS ABOUT 
INDICTED WAR CRIMINAL ANTE GOTOVINA.  ACCORDING TO HDZ 
OFFICIALS, TURNOUT AT THE CONVENTION WAS ALMOST 6,000, MUCH 
LARGER THAN LAST YEAR'S.  SANADER LOOKS TO HAVE CONSOLIDATED 
HIS HOLD ON TUDJMAN'S OLD PARTY.  THE EMBASSY ISSUED A 
STATEMENT AFTER THE CONVENTION EXPLAINING THAT THE U.S. 
GOVERNMENT DOES NOT ENDORSE ANY CANDIDATES.  END SUMMARY 
 
U.S. SUPPORTS THE HDZ? 
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2.  (C) KEEN TO SHOW THAT HDZ IS REFORMING AND HAS 
CREDIBILITY IN THE WEST, PARTY PRESIDENT IVO SANADER ASKED 
GUY VANDER JAGT, FORMER REPUBLICAN CONGRESSMAN FROM MICHIGAN, 
TO DELIVER THE KEYNOTE ADDRESS.  VANDER JAGT -- WHO DELIVERED 
THE NOMINATING SPEECH AT THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION FOR RONALD 
REAGAN IN 1980 -- TOLD THE THRONG AT ZAGREB'S CIBONA 
BASKETBALL ARENA THAT MUCH OF WASHINGTON'S REPUBLICAN 
ESTABLISHMENT WAS BEHIND HDZ.  HE ASSERTED THAT THE 
REPUBLICANS APPRECIATED IN PARTICULAR HDZ'S SUPPORT ON IRAQ. 
    VANDER JAGT CLAIMED IN HIS SPEECH THAT HE HAD SPOKEN TO 
SECRETARY OF DEFENSE RUMSFELD AND VICE PRESIDENT CHENEY JUST 
 
SIPDIS 
BEFORE DEPARTING FOR CROATIA.  THE DEFENSE SECRETARY, 
ACCORDING TO VANDER JAGT, TOLD HIM TO DO A GOOD JOB TO HELP 
THE HDZ.  RUMSFELD, HE CLAIMED, EXPRESSED APPRECIATION FOR 
SANADER'S SUPPORT ON IRAQ.  REFERRING TO SANADER AS CROATIA'S 
NEXT PRIME MINISTER, VANDER JAGT CALLED ON HDZ TO SWEEP THE 
CURRENT GOVERNMENT OUT OF OFFICE -- AND, IN SO DOING, HE 
PRESSED ALL THE HOT ECONOMIC AND NATIONALIST BUTTONS. 
 
3.  (C) VANDER JAGT WAS AMONG SEVERAL INTERNATIONAL VIPS 
INVITED.  HE WAS NOT INTRODUCED AS A "FORMER" CONGRESSMAN; 
THE CLEAR AIM WAS TO CREATE THE IMPRESSION THAT THE U.S. 
ADMINISTRATION ENDORSES HDZ AND WANTS TO GET THE CURRENT 
GOVERNMENT OUT OF OFFICE.  THE EX-CONGRESSMAN'S APPEARANCE 
WAS ARRANGED BY FORMER CROATIAN AMBASSADOR TO THE U.S. MIOMIR 
ZUZUL.  IN CONTRAST TO VANDER JAGT AND SEVERAL OTHER EUROPEAN 
SPEAKERS, DORIS PACK, PRESIDENT OF THE EU PARLIAMENT'S 
COMMISSION FOR SOUTHEAST EUROPE, DELIVERED WHAT WAS LESS OF A 
PEP TALK.  SHE WAS SUBSTANTIVE AND CONVEYED THE FAMILIAR 
THEMES ABOUT CROATIA'S INTERNATIONAL OBLIGATIONS.  WHEN SHE 
SAID SHE HOPED INDICTED WAR CRIMINAL ANTE GOTOVINA WOULD GO 
TO THE HAGUE, THE AUDIENCE HISSED LOUDLY.  (SANADER DID NOT 
TOUCH ON GOTOVINA IN HIS PREPARED REMARKS, BUT WHEN ASKED 
ABOUT IT IN A SUBSEQUENT HTV INTERVIEW, HE DISSEMBLED: "IN 
OPPOSITION," HE DID NOT HAVE ALL THE INFORMATION NEEDED TO 
MAKE AN INFORMED JUDGMENT.) 
 
SPIN CONTROL 
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    4.  (C) WE PREPARED PRESS GUIDANCE TO GET OUT THE MESSAGE 
THAT VANDER JAGT'S VIEWS DID NOT REPRESENT THOSE OF THE USG. 
THE CROATIAN PRESS'S TRACK RECORD OF FACT CHECKING IS NOT 
GREAT, AND WE WANTED TO BE SURE PEOPLE KNEW VANDER JAGT IS 
NOT CURRENTLY A MEMBER OF CONGRESS.  IN ADDITION, WE REACHED 
OUT TO KEY ADVISORS OF PM RACAN AND PQSIDENT MESIC TO MAKE 
SURE THEY GOT THE WORD.  BOTH ARE FAMOUS FOR LEADING WITH 
THEIR CHINS WHERE THE PRESS IS CONCERNED, AND WE DID NOT WANT 
TO SEE THEM COMMENTING ON REMARKS BY VANDER JAGT, THE FULL 
BACKGROUND OF WHICH THEY DID NOT HAVE. 
 
COMMENT 
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5.  (C) FOR HIS PART, SANADER HAS COME A LONG WAY SINCE HE 
DEFEATED HARD LINER IVIC PASALIC IN A HOTLY CONTESTED 
LEADERSHIP STRUGGLE A YEAR AGO.  HE HAS CONSOLIDATED HIS BASE 
AND JETTISONED A NUMBER OF THE MORE PROBLEMATIC FIGURES FROM 
POSITIONS OF AUTHORITY IN THE PARTY.  INDEED, HE KICKED A 
PROMINENT HDZ RIGHT-WINGER, LJUBO CESIC-ROJS, OUT OF THE 
PARTY.  AS ONE COMMENTARY PUT IT AFTER THE CONVENTION, 
HOWEVER, SANADER STILL HAS A LONG WAY TO GO TO CONVINCE 
CROATIAN VOTERS -- AS DISTINCT FROM HDZ ACTIVISTS -- THAT HIS 
PARTY ENJOYS INTERNATIONAL RESPECTABILITY.  AND IF THE PARTY 
 
ZAGREB 00001439  002 OF 002 
 
RTNERS, THE DEMOCRATIC 
CENTER (DC) AND THE CROATIAN LIBERAL PARTY (HSLS) SENT SECOND 
TIER REPRESENTATIVES.  THE PEASANTS PARTY (HSS), THE SECOND 
BIGGEST IN THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT -- AND THE WIDELY-REPUTED 
"KINGMAKER-TO-BE" -- SENT NOBODY.  HSS HAD BEEN RUMORED FOR 
    MONTHS TO HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH HDZ. 
ROSSIN 
 
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