US embassy cable - 97ACCRA4941

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 004941 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/07 
TAGS: PREL, PINR, PGOV, GH 
SUBJECT: A CLOSE LOOK AT GHANA'S PRESIDENT RAWLINGS 
 
REF: ACCRA 01142 
 
CLASSIFIED BY EDWARD BRYNN, COM, REASON 1.5(B) AND (D) 
 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: THE NETHERLANDS' DEPARTING AMBASSADOR 
TO GHANA, HEIN PRINCEN, SPENT A FULL WEEK-END IN CLOSE 
QUARTERS WITH J. J. RAWLINGS, AND CAME AWAY BOTH 
FASCINATED AND A BIT UNNERVED.  PRINCEN'S SPOUSE, A 
TRAINED SOCIAL WORKER, SAW INCONTROVERTIBLE EVIDENCE OF 
DRUG USE BY THE PRESIDENT.  RAWLINGS COMPLAINED THAT HIS 
ADVISORS KEEP HIM IN THE DARK.  HIS WIFE WAS PRESENT, 
AND RAWLINGS WAS DEFERENTIAL TOWARDS HER, BUT IT WAS 
CLEAR THAT THEY ARE SEEN TOGETHER ONLY FOR FAMILY 
REASONS OR REASONS OF STATE.  PRINCEN FOUND RAWLINGS 
TIRED OF HIS PUBLIC PERSONA AND EASILY PERSUADED THAT 
PEOPLE WERE WORKING BEHIND HIS BACK.  RAWLINGS SEEMS 
CAUGHT BETWEEN A DESIRE TO BRING HIS CHIEF OF STATE 
TENURE TO A CLOSE ON ONE HAND, AND A LIVELY FEAR OF THE 
CONSEQUENCES OF SO DOING ON THE OTHER.  PRINCEN SAW 
RAWLINGS' NEWEST EMINENCE GRISE UP CLOSE, AND DID NOT 
LIKE HIS BALEFUL INFLUENCE IN THE AREA OF GHANAIAN 
ECONOMIC POLICY.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U) THE SETTING:  VERY OCCASIONALLY RAWLINGS INVITES 
AN ACCREDITED DIPLOMAT TO JOIN HIS FAMILY FOR WEEK-END 
RELAXATION AND CONVERSATION ON THE MODEST BUT 
COMFORTABLE PRESIDENTIAL YACHT ANCHORED IN VOLTA LAKE 
ONE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF ACCRA.  (THE LAST HONOREE 
WAS AMERICAN AMBASSADOR KENNETH BROWN ON THE EVE OF HIS 
DEPARTURE IN MID-1995.)  ALSO PRESENT WERE RAWLINGS' SIX 
CHILDREN, PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR ANTHONY AIDOO (MORE 
LATER), AN UNNAMED GERMAN ENGINEER/BOAT CAPTAIN, AND A 
COUPLE OF MILITARY STAFFERS.  GUESTS SO HONORED ARE 
ENJOINED NOT TO DISCUSS THE ADVENTURE INSIDE GHANA, AND 
PRINCEN  ASSURED ME THAT I ALONE (IN GHANA) WAS PRIVY TO 
WHAT FOLLOWS. 
 
3.  (C) THE PRIVATE PERSONA:  AMBASSADOR PRINCEN'S WIFE 
CONCLUDED EMPHATICALLY THAT RAWLINGS IS A DRUG-USER. 
PERIODS OF HIGH-LEVEL ENERGIZING WERE FOLLOWED BY 
RAWLINGS' DISAPPEARANCE FOR THIRTY MINUTES, AND UPON HIS 
RETURN HE WAS SUBDUED AND EVEN MELLOW.  HE PERSPIRED 
PROFUSELY AT SHORT NOTICE, AND CONSUMED LARGE QUANTITIES 
OF NON-ALCOHOLIC DRINKS.  PRINCEN REINFORCED MY OWN 
IMPRESSION THAT RAWLINGS' ATTENTION SPAN HAS SHORTENED 
OF LATE.  BUT THE PRINCENS FOUND THE PRESIDENT OPEN, 
INDULGENT TOWARDS HIS CHILDREN, AND EXTREMELY 
DEFERENTIAL - EVEN OBSEQUIOUS - TOWARDS HIS SPOUSE.  THE 
TENOR OF THEIR CONVERSATION REINFORCED THE WIDESPREAD 
IMPRESSION THAT THEY SEE EACH OTHER ONLY IN PUBLIC OR IN 
THE CONTEXT OF THIS RETREAT TO LAKE VOLTA.  (RAWLINGS 
SAID THIS WAS THE FIRST FAMILY GATHERING THIS YEAR.) 
RAWLINGS WATCHED VIDEOS, LISTENED TO MUSIC, AND CHATTED 
UP HIS GUESTS SIMULTAMEOUSLY.  PRINCEN NOTICED WHAT ALL 
OF US OBSERVE AS INTERLOCUTORS:  RAWLINGS' INCREDIBLE 
INABILITY TO RECALL NAMES, EVEN THOSE OF ADVISERS 
CONSTANTLY AT HIS ELBOW. 
 
4.  (C) RAWLINGS' CIRCLE OF ADVISORS:  SINCE 
PRESIDENTIAL AND PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS LAST DECEMBER 
WE HAVE PUSHED THE THEME THAT PRESIDENT RAWLINGS SEEMS 
TO HAVE BEEN STRIPPED OF A CIRCLE OF CONFIDANTS WHOSE 
COLLECTIVE WEIGHT, WHILE FAR FROM BRILLIANT, APPEARED TO 
MODERATE RAWLINGS' TENDENCY TO OVERACT AT FIRST EVIDENCE 
OF SOME UNPALATABLE DEVELOPMENT.  WE ARE NOW WELL INTO A 
NEW PHASE, WHERE IT APPEARS THAT THE PRESIDENT IS FAR 
FROM WELL INFORMED AS TO WHAT TRANSPIRES IN HIS NAME. 
HE WAS MANIFESTLY OUT TO LUNCH ON THE PNG OF OUR PUBLIC 
AFFAIRS OFFICER IN MAY.  WORLD BANK AND IMF VISITORS 
COMPLAIN THAT HE SEEMS PROFOUNDLY UNINFORMED ON ECONOMIC 
MATTERS, EVEN AS HIS MINISTER OF FINANCE IS SEEN BY 
FINANCIAL EXPERTS INSIDE AND OUTSIDE GHANA AS ALARMINGLY 
INCOMPETENT.  INTO THE VACUUM HAS MOVED ANTHONY AIDOO, 
WHOSE CONSPIRATORIAL DEMEANOR ENCOURAGES DARK 
SPECULATION ABOUT HIS MALIGN INFLUENCE ON RAWLINGS. 
AIDOO IS KNOWN TO US PRINCIPALLY FOR HIS ENTRENCHED 
LEFTIST LEANINGS, HIS ANTI-IMPERIALIST RHETORIC WHILE A 
PROFESSOR AT CAPE COAST UNIVERSITY, AND HIS AFFECTION 
FOR THE LIKES OF QADAFI AND CASTRO.  AMBASSADOR 
PRINCEN'S OPPORTUNITY TO WATCH AIDOO AT CLOSE QUARTERS 
WAS FAR FROM REASSURING.  AIDOO SEEMED TO REINFORCE 
RAWLINGS' FEARS THAT SENIOR GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS WERE 
CONSPIRING TO HIDE THINGS FROM THE PRESIDENT.  AIDOO'S 
OBSEQUIOUS BEHAVIOR TOWARDS MRS. RAWLINGS ALSO 
REINFORCED THE IMPRESSION HERE IN ACCRA THAT SHE IS IN 
SOME DEGREE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ALIENATION OF THE 
PRESIDENT'S TRADITIONAL FRIENDS, WITH AIDOO NOW FILLING 
THE VOID. 
 
5.  (C) IMPACT ON ECONOMIC POLICY:  ACCORDING TO PRINCEN 
THE ONLY SUSTAINED SUBSTANTIVE DISCUSSION FOCUSED ON 
GHANA'S CURRENT ECONOMIC PROBLEMS.  PRINCEN WAS 
INTRIGUED TO SEE RAWLINGS NODDING IN ASSENT AT AIDOO'S 
PRONOUNCEMENT THAT HIGH INFLATION WAS CAUSED BY 
IRRESPONSIBLE ELEMENTS IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR, AND THAT 
THE PRIVATE SECTOR SHOULD FIND A SOLUTION.  AIDOO ALSO 
FED RAWLINGS THE NOTION THAT THE NORTH CAROLINA SUMMIT 
ON GHANA'S COMPETITIVENESS IN THE GLOBAL MARKETPLACE WAS 
A CAMOUFLAGED ATTACK ON RAWLINGS' NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC 
CONGRESS.  PRINCEN REMONSTRATED, BUT HE THOUGHT WITH 
LIMITED EFFECT. PRINCEN DID GAIN RAWLINGS' ATTENTION BY 
REGISTERING IMPRESSIONS CIRCULATING IN ACCRA THAT THE 
WORLD BANK AND IMF ARE INCREASINGLY DISSATISFIED WITH 
THE PERFORMANCE OF BOTH THE INCUMBENT MINISTER OF 
FINANCE PEPPRAH AND THE LARGER ECONOMIC POLICIES OF THE 
POST-DECEMBER GOVERNMENT.  RAWLINGS RESPONDED BY LASHING 
OUT AT MEMBERS OF HIS OWN GOVERNMENT - SOME WERE CITED 
BY NAME - WHO DELIBERATELY CONCEAL PROBLEMS FROM HIS 
ATTENTION.  RAWLINGS BUILT UP A HEAD OF STEAM ON THE 
GHANA ELECTRICAL COMMISSION'S ANNOUNCEMENT TWO WEEKS AGO 
THAT RATES WOULD RISE UP TO 300, RETROACTIVE TO MAY 1; 
THIS WAS DESIGNED TO DESTABILIZE HIS GOVERNMENT, HE 
THOUGHT.  THE LARGER IMPRESSION, HOWEVER, WAS THAT 
PRESIDENT RAWLINGS WAS NOT WELL INFORMED OF RECENT 
UNSETTLING ECONOMIC TRENDS. 
 
6.  (C) COMMENT:  THE IMPRESSIONS REGISTERED ABOVE ARE 
THOSE OF A VETERAN CAREER DIPLOMAT (PREVIOUSLY 
AMBASSADOR IN PERU AND NOW OFF TO SRI LAMKA) WHOSE 
CONFIDENTIAL OBSERVATIONS ON OTHER OCCASIONS HAVE HELD 
UP WELL.  PRINCEN'S OBSERVATIONS ECHO IMPRESSIONS I 
RECORDED EARLIER THIS YEAR (REFTEL).  IF THEY HOLD 
WATER, WE MUST SEE IN THEM A GIANT STEP BACKWARDS IF 
CLOSE CONFIDANTS LIKE ANTHONY AIDOO ARE PREJUDICING THE 
PRESIDENT AGAINST THE TRADE AND INVESTMENT INITIATIVE 
LAUNCHED AT CHAPEL HILL IN EARLY JUNE.  AND, IN A LARGER 
ARENA, IF AS A RESULT OF FATIGUE OR ISOLATION OR 
UNHEALTHY PERSONAL PRACTICES PRESIDENT RAWLINGS FAILS TO 
EXERCISE LEADERSHIP SKILLS DURING HIS SECOND 
CONSTITUTIONAL TERM, THERE MIGHT BE DELETERIOUS 
REPERCUSSIONS FOR ALL THAT TOUCHES ON THE ECONOMY:  THE 
GROWTH OF DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS;  THE CONTINUATION OF 
AN ERA OF DOMESTIC PEACE;  THE EMERGENCE OF A PRIVATE 
SECTOR ABLE TO INVITE SIGNIFICANT OUTSIDE INVESTMENT AND 
PLAY A POSITIVE ROLE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.  AMBASSADOR 
PRINCEN NOTED THAT RAWLINGS PLANS TO MARK MY OWN 
DEPARTURE WITH A SIMILAR WEEK-END ADVENTURE.  BUT AS IT 
NOW STANDS THAT MAY NOT COME SOON, LEAVING MUCH TIME FOR 
ANTHONY AIDOO TO BREW A POISONOUS POTION IN THE CASTLE. 
 
 
BRYNN