US embassy cable - 03ANKARA3992

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 003992 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY'S LOCAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN ANKARA: LET 
THE GAMES BEGIN 
 
 
REF: ANKARA 3784 
 
 
(U) Classified by Acting Political Counselor Nicholas S. 
Kass. Reason: 1.5 (b)(d). 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: In the metropolitan municipality of Ankara, 
the campaign season has begun anew.  Local elections must be 
held here by April 2004, although some of our contacts 
continue to speculate that the ruling AK Party could change 
the constitution to hold local polls sometime this fall. 
Candidates are already jockeying to become AK's candidate for 
"Lord High Mayor" in what some polls suggest could be a 
slugfest between AK and the opposition Establishmentarian 
CHP, which is traditionally strong in Kemalist Ankara. 
Although AK has not made its preference known, barring the 
entrance of a "big name" from among the party administration 
or those close to Erdogan, the battle in AK is likely to come 
down to two names: Turgut Altinok, mayor of conservative 
Kecioren township, and current Ankara mayor Melih Gokcek. 
End summary. 
 
 
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The Challenger 
-------------- 
 
 
2. (C) Lying just north of downtown Ankara, Kecioren is a 
conservative community with a diverse migrant population from 
all over Anatolia.  As mayor of Kecioren for the last nine 
years, Altinok, who was formerly a member of the 
ultra-nationalist MHP and later joined AK predecessor 
Fazilet, is known for having greatly improved his city's 
infrastructure and for eliminating most of the shanty towns 
("gecekondular").  In a meeting with us June 19, he noted 
that "when I first arrived, Kecioren was 5/6 gecekondu; now 
it is only 1/6."  Altinok claimed that many affluent Turks, 
who formerly only sought out the more cosmopolitan Cankaya 
district, are now moving in droves to Kecioren.  "It helps 
that P.M./AK Chairman Erdogan makes his home here," he said. 
 
 
3. (C) Altinok offered that there is little left for him to 
do as Kecioren mayor and that he is ready for the greater 
challenge of managing Ankara municipality.  When asked, 
Altinok stated without hesitation that he will be AK's 
candidate.  He asserted that he has a personal relationship 
with Erdogan, which, Altinok said, has grown because he 
joined AK early on: "I was the first AK mayor in Turkey," he 
boasted.  AK, he said, recognizes the importance of Kecioren 
for the Anatolian vote; it had planned to hold its first 
party meeting there, but was dissuaded when facilities proved 
too small (a problem Altinok is trying to remedy with planned 
construction projects). 
 
 
4. (C) Altinok asserted baldly that his competition, Gokcek, 
is a "shameless self-promoter" whose access to media gives 
him an unfair advantage. Gokcek is also corrupt, Altinok 
alleged, without going into details. 
 
 
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The Favorite? 
------------- 
 
 
5. (C) Mayor Gokcek, an independent formerly with 
center-right ANAP and later of the Islamist Refah/Fazilet, is 
a polarizing figure.  Supporters and critics alike note his 
successes in cleaning up the city by building parks and green 
spaces, reducing air pollution, and razing gecekondus.  On 
the other hand, in a typically Machine-style and often petty 
fashion (Gokcek has visited Chicago to "exchange views with 
Mayor Daley), he routinely punishes districts that didn't 
vote his way by removing or restricting some municipal 
services.  Gokcek advisors assert that despite such 
liabilities, the mayor maintains a high level of popular 
appeal (40% approval). 
 
 
6. (C) In a June 19 meeting with poloff, Gokcek chief advisor 
Murat Dogru explained that the mayor wants to be on AK's 
ticket and that negotiations are still underway.  Dogru 
claimed that there is resistance to Gokcek's membership in AK 
from F.M. Gul and those close to him -- including AK M.P. and 
Embassy contact Murat Mercan, who once worked for Gokcek. 
They view the incumbent as a potential national rival.  Dogru 
expressed confidence that AK will eventually agree to make 
Gokcek its candidate.  "It's the only thing that makes 
sense," he said. (Note: as reported reftel, Erdogan and 
Gokcek are seeking rapprochement.  End note).  According to 
an independent pollster/activist with excellent access to 
conservative circles, Gokcek, a skilled political operator, 
is assiduously lobbying AK party officials, including members 
of the Parliamentary group, to support his AK candidacy and 
legitimize his place as a national contender. 
 
 
7. (C) Dogru dismissed other potential candidates, including 
Altinok.  According to public opinion data that Dogru says he 
has gathered over the last several months, Altinok's support 
is hovering at 7 percent.  Moreover, Dogru launched his own 
corruption counter-allegations against the Kecioren mayor, 
smugly offering to poloff that Altinok is stealing water from 
Ankara municipality.  "We have the photographs and documents 
to prove it," he said.  When the time is right, Gokcek will 
be ready to attack Altinok in the press. 
 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
 
8. (C) Altinok's assertion that he has a lock on the AK 
nomination probably reflects some wishful thinking.  Indeed, 
if AK does not tap Gokcek -- who wants to use AK to 
capitalize on the party's public support and as a vehicle for 
his own national aspirations -- there is a real risk that the 
conservative vote in Ankara will split.  This would pave the 
way for a candidate on the left.  A recent SONAR poll showed 
CHP and AK in a virtual dead heat in the capital, which 
suggests that with the right candidate -- always a key 
consideration in local election prognostications -- the 
otherwise moribund CHP could make a run for it.  Meanwhile, 
there is also the Genc party of Motorola deadbeat Cem Uzan's 
Genc Party, which could be the dark horse in Ankara. 
According to some polls, Genc is already lurking as the 
second most popular party nationwide.  Genc appears intent on 
adding disillusioned Establishment voters to its base among 
more impoverished and benighted nationalist elements. 
PEARSON