US embassy cable - 03ROME2763

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 002763 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR NP AND EUR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2013 
TAGS: KNNP, PARM, PREL, IT, LY, EU, EUN 
SUBJECT: LIBYAN REFERENCE IN US-EU PROLIFERATION STATEMENT 
 
REF: STATE 171136 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: ACTING POL MC JOHN BASS, REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D) 
 
1. THIS MESSAGE CONTAINS AN ACTION REQUEST FOR NP.  PLEASE 
    SEE PARA 4. 
 
2. (C) THE BERLUSCONI GOVERNMENT BELIEVES QADAFFI HAS "CHOSEN 
THE PATH OF REINTEGRATION" INTO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY 
AND WAS TAKING IMPORTANT STEPS IN THAT DIRECTION, THE PRIME 
MINISTER'S DEPUTY DIPLOMATIC ADVISOR, GIANPAOLO SCARANTE, 
TOLD US JUNE 18.  ITALY WAS NOT OPPOSED IN PRINCIPLE TO 
INCLUDING A REFERENCE TO LIBYA IN A US-EU PROLIFERATION 
STATEMENT; EXPERTS COULD WORK OUT THE DETAILS IN NORMAL 
CHANNELS.  SCARANTE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT QADAFFI'S WMD AND 
MISSILE ACQUISITION PROGRAMS HAD NOT BEEN DISMANTLED ("OTHER 
PATHS STILL EXIST") BUT SAID HE WAS UNAWARE OF ANY SPECIFIC 
INFORMATION ON THEIR CONTINUED ACTIVITIES.  SCARANTE MIRRORED 
WASHINGTON DCM STEFANINI'S REFTEL COMMENTS IN ENCOURAGING THE 
U.S. TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.  HE REITERATED THE 
PRIME MINISTER'S ASSESSMENT, BASED ON HIS DIRECT CONTACTS, 
THAT QADAFFI IS COMMITTED TO LIBYA'S REINTEGRATION AND 
WORKING TOWARD THAT GOAL. 
 
3. WE ALSO PROVIDED THE POINTS TO MFA LIBYA OFFICE DIRECTOR 
BELLAVIA AND NONPROLIFERATION EXPERT SARDI, NEITHER OF WHOM 
HAD IMMEDIATE COMMENTS THAT WENT BEYOND BELLAVIA'S JUNE 16 
COMMENTS (REF B) THAT A HARD PUSH ON NONPRO NOW WOULD REDUCE 
THE LIKELIHOOD OF QADAFFI ABANDONING LIBYA'S UNSC BID. 
 
4. COMMENT AND ACTION REQUEST: WE THINK SCARANTE'S COMMENTS, 
TOGETHER WITH STEFANINI'S, REFLECT AN ITALIAN GOVERNMENT 
CALCULATION THAT THWARTING LIBYA'S UNSC MEMBERSHIP BID IS THE 
USG'S MAIN PRIORITY ON LIBYA.  HIS SUGGESTION THAT ITALY IS 
NOT OPPOSED IN PRINCIPLE TO A LIBYA REFERENCE IN THE NONPRO 
STATEMENT IS PROBABLY MORE A BAIT-AND-SWITCH BACK TO THE MFA 
    THAN IT IS A REAL OPENING.  THE ITALIANS WON'T PUSH FOR A 
REFERENCE TO LIBYA, BUT WE DON'T THINK THEY WILL WANT TO BE 
ISOLATED WITHIN THE EU-15 IN OPPOSING ONE.  ANY ADDITIONAL 
SPECIFIC INFORMATION WASHINGTON AGENCIES COULD PROVIDE ABOUT 
THE CONTINUED ACTIVITIES OF LIBYA'S WMD AND MISSILE 
ACQUISITION PROGRAMS -- ESPECIALLY ACTIVITIES COINCIDENT WITH 
QADDAFI'S CURRENT REINTEGRATION CHARM OFFENSIVE -- WILL HELP, 
BUT ABSENT COMPELLING SPECIFIC EVIDENCE IS UNLIKELY TO CARRY 
THE DAY.  ACTION REQUEST FOR NP: PLEASE PROVIDE ANY SPECIFIC 
INTELLIGENCE-DERIVED INFORMATION REGARDING THE ACQUISITION 
PROGRAMS' RECENT ACTIVITIES THAT WE COULD SHARE WITH SCARANTE 
AND OTHERS.  END ACTION REQUEST. 
SEMBLER 
 
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	2003ROME02763 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL