US embassy cable - 03HARARE1242

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 001242 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/FO, AF/S AND NSC FOR AFRICA SR DIR FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, SF, ZI 
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICANS SEE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD ZIMBABWE 
DIALOGUE 
 
 
Classified By: Joseph G. Sullivan for reasons 1.5b/d 
 
1. (c) South African High Commissioner Jeremiah Ndou told the 
Ambassador June 17 that talks about talks between ZANU-PF and 
the MDC continued with both sides agreed on need to resume 
their dialogue.  Ndou said that some talks had already 
occurred between the two sides prior to the June 2-6 stayaway 
and more had been scheduled for the week when planning for 
the stayaway and GOZ reaction interrupted the process.  Ndou 
said that President Mbeki had urged the MDC not to go ahead 
with the stayaway and was upset when the MDC opted for the 
mass action.  He said that the SAG had urged the GOZ not to 
over-react to the MDC actions.  Ndou said the GOZ was also 
upset over the MDC mass action and this was why Tsvangirai 
was detained.  Ndou said that both sides remained committed 
to talks, however, as the only way out of the crisis.  Ndou 
said that the talks remained mostly about talks, rather than 
about the substance of differences.  He said the SAG was 
urging ZANU-PF to move to public meetings with the MDC as a 
way to lock in the dialogue process and get public credit for 
it.  As it were, both sides were arguing that radicals in 
their own parties opposed dialogue with the other party. 
Ndou said that one potential formula could have talks focus 
on constitutional reforms as a way to deal with concrete 
reform issues rather than have every issue become a straight 
political dispute between ZANU-PF and the MDC. 
 
2. (c)  Ndou said he believed that it was now clear that 
Mugabe's departure as President was part of any dialogue. The 
subject had been touched on during the three Presidents' 
visit to Harare last month and Mugabe's public call for an 
open campaign for succession had brought the debate out of 
the closet.  Ndou said that ZANU-PF, of course, believed that 
succession meant a transition from one ZANU-PF President to 
another; ZANU-PF did not expect that MDC could ever win an 
election or govern the country because of its lack of 
liberation war credentials.  Ndou discounted a June 17 "Daily 
News" account that Mugabe had told President Mbeki that 
Parliamentary Speaker Emmerson Mnangagwa was his chosen 
successor.  Ndou said that tribal rivalries made ZANU 
succession much more complicated with Mugabe reluctant to 
choose a Karanga(Shona sub-group) like Mnangagwa.  In the 
absence of a qualified Zezeru(Mugabe's Shona sub-group), it 
was more likely that a Manica(a Shona speaker from 
Manicaland) like Simba Makoni or even an Ndebele would be 
chosen as a transitional leader.  Ndou said that these same 
tribal rivalries made ZANU more open to a constitutional 
reform which distributed power controlled so tightly in the 
presidency among a number of positions, including a Prime 
Ministry, a stronger Parliament, etc. 
 
 
3. (c) The Ambassador underlined USG anger over Tsvangirai's 
continued detention and deliberate humiliation on no credible 
grounds other than Mugabe's wish to hold him.  He urged that 
the South Africans exert every effort to secure his release. 
Ndou said that the SAG had urged Tsvangirai's release and had 
urged the MDC to raise the need for Tsvangirai's release as 
essential for productive negotiations. 
 
4.(c) Comment: It is clear that the South Africans continue 
to work this issue.  (President Mbeki called while I was with 
Ndou.) It is less clear how hard they are pushing Mugabe and 
whether Mugabe and ZANU-PF see any urgency to dialogue or are 
stringing the process along.  And this is before anyone has 
really gotten into the substance of the negotiations 
themselves. 
 
 
SULLIVAN