US embassy cable - 03AMMAN3612

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 003612 
 
SIPDIS 
 
CENTCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, JO 
SUBJECT: LARGE NUMBERS OF JORDANIANS GO TO THE POLLS; 
ANALYSTS EXPECT PRO-MONARCHY MAJORITY AND SMALL BUT VOCAL 
ISLAMIST MINORITY TO BE ELECTED TO A NEW PARLIAMENT 
 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Doug Silliman for reasons 1.5 (B)(D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  According to preliminary estimates, between 50 
and 75 percent of Jordanians eligible to vote went to 
the polls June 17 to elect a new Parliament.  Percentages 
in urban Amman and Irbid seem to be lower.  Voting 
throughout the country was calm, and numerous polling 
stations had a festive air.  Embassy observers report 
that election officials were uniformly serious and 
applied election regulations assiduously around the 
country.  Voting fraud seemed virtually nonexistent: 
EmbOffs observed election and security officials thwart 
several attempts by voters to cast more than one vote 
or vote with altered or improper documents. 
 
2.  (C)  Although preliminary results will not be 
available until June 18, most analysts expect the new 
Parliament of 110 seats to have a sizable, pro-monarchy 
majority.  Many observers also expect the Islamic Action 
Front (IAF) to win 20-25 seats which, if combined with 
victories by several independent Islamist candidates, 
will create a small but vocal opposition minority. 
A senior IAF official told the British Ambassador 
June 16 that the IAF will not seek cabinet portfolios 
if a new government is formed.  End Summary. 
 
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FESTIVE AIR FOR ELECTIONS; LITTLE VOTER FRAUD 
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3.  (C)  Jordan conducted its first Parliamentary elections 
since 1997 on June 17.  Embassy officers observed the voting 
in numerous urban and rural polling stations around the 
country, including in Amman, Irbid, Jerash, Ajloun, Zarqa, 
Salt, Baqaa refugee camp, Kerak, Tafileh, and Shobak.  All 
officers reported calm and festive polling centers.  Security 
at polling centers was visible, but not intrusive.  Election 
officials in polling places were universally serious about 
their responsibilities and appeared to apply election 
regulations assiduously.  EmbOffs observed election officials 
throughout the country checking national ID cards and 
verifying identities of voters, including those of veiled 
women (who were asked to show their face to either the 
polling station manager or a female police officer).  EmbOffs 
reported that the counting of ballots after the close of 
polls was conducted in the polling centers, with the name 
from each ballot observed by the electoral committee and read 
aloud.  Representatives of candidates were present at each 
ballot box observed, and stayed for the counting of ballots. 
These representatives did not report any problems in polling 
or vote counting.  (EmbOffs in fact observed election and 
security officials thwart several attempts to cast more than 
one vote or vote with altered or improper documents.  The 
perpetrators were politely escorted from polling stations, 
but not taken into custody.) 
 
4.  (C)  Outside of polling stations, numerous candidate 
representatives passed out literature and tried to convince 
undecided voters how to cast their ballots.  Many candidates 
bussed voters to polling stations, but several voters 
indicated to EmbOffs that they would vote for a candidate 
other than the one who had provided the ride to the polls. 
Although prohibited near polling stations, many candidates 
set up election tents and arranged parades of their 
supporters to and from polling stations. 
 
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GOOD TURNOUT IN RURAL AREAS, TOWNS; LESS IN URBAN AREAS 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
5.  (C)  Preliminary numbers compiled from individual polling 
places around the country indicate a turnout of between 60 
and 75 percent in rural areas and small town in the north, 
center, and south.  Outlying Amman suburbs and the Baqaa 
refugee camp saw an estimated 50-60 percent participation 
rate.  Voter turnout in urban Amman and Irbid appears to have 
been lower, with some election officials expressing to 
EmbOffs disappointment over a less than expected turnout. 
 
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PRESS COVERAGE 
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6.  (U)  Jordan television (JTV) and radio carried throughout 
the day live coverage from reporters roving around the 
country, as well as commentary by Jordanian government 
officials and analysts.  The Ambassador appeared on JTV to 
support Jordan's democratic process and highlight U.S.-Jordan 
bilateral relations and U.S. resolve to achieve Middle East 
peace.  JTV will carry live coverage of election results 
throughout the night as the votes are tabulated. 
 
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EXPECTED RESULTS: PRO-KING MAJORITY, ISLAMIST MINORITY 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
7.  (C)  While preliminary results will not be available 
until June 18, most analysts expect the elections to produce 
a substantial pro-government majority because distribution 
and weight of districts favor candidates in generally East 
Bank small towns and rural areas.  This majority will likely 
be tribal, conservative, and pro-monarchy in its orientation. 
 Analysts also expect the IAF to win between 20-25 seats of 
the 29 they are contesting.  (In fact, PolOff witnessed an 
IAF candidate win the vote count in one Amman polling 
station.)  When coupled with expected victories of several 
independent Islamist candidates, this should produce a small 
but vocal opposition minority in the new Parliament.  A 
senior IAF official told the British Ambassador June 16 that 
the IAF was unlikely to seek any cabinet portfolios if a new 
government is formed after elections. 
 
8.  (C)  Although analysts pinpointed 3-4 contests in which 
women candidates ran close races, most did not expect more 
than 1-2 women to win seats outright (many expect women to 
get only the six newly created women's seats). 
 
9.  (C)  Embassy will report on the results of the elections 
as they become available June 18. 
GNEHM