US embassy cable - 03HARARE1233

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001233 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER 
LONDON FOR C.GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C.NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
DS/OP/AF 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2008 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINR, ZI, MDC, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: MUGABE STILL PACKS A PUNCH 
 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Peggy Blackford for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
Summary 
---------- 
 
1.  (C)  Robert Mugabe went on the offensive last week 
following the previous week's mass action by the opposition 
party, the MDC.  Mugabe was pugnacious and triumphalist and 
used every opportunity to demean his political rival, MDC 
President, Morgan Tsvangirai.  At the same time he took to 
his political stronghold in the countryside and heaped 
criticism on the West and local whites.   Tsvangirai is still 
being imprisoned on new charges of treason.  At his bail 
hearing, the State argued that thinking of treason is in 
itself treason.  The judge reserved her decision until 
possibly this week.  Mugabe's recent actions seem more reflex 
than strategy.  There seems little to be gained by kicking 
his opponents while they are down but in the past he has 
shown himself to be incapable of conciliation. 
 
Mugabe: Getting younger and still punching 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
2.  (C)  On June 8 following a week of mass action organized 
by the opposition MDC, President Robert Mugabe, in an 
interview given to the South African Broadcasting Company, 
declared that, "I am ready for a fight, I am getting 
younger..., and I still can punch."  In the week since he has 
matched his actions to his words, demeaning the opposition, 
incarcerating political opponents on the flimsiest of 
charges, threatening diplomatic establishments, and stirring 
up racial hatred.  Avoiding urban areas which are MDC 
strongholds, he went on the offense during a swing through 
provinces and rural areas where ZANU-PF has traditionally 
been strong. 
 
Taking aim at the opposition 
---------------------------- 
 
3.  (U)   On June 13, at a rally some 50 kilometers from 
Zimbabwe's second city, Bulawayo, Mugabe vowed to crush any 
future mass action.  He warned that participation in 
demonstrations would be "playing with fire" and added, "We 
will never allow the MDC to hold another mass action.  That 
will never happen again."  Mugabe derided MDC President 
Tsvangirai saying sarcastically that the MDC planned to put 
 
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Tsvangirai in State House (the President's home) by Friday 
 
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and that he was glad that Tsvangirai was, in fact, in State 
house (prison).  Referring to members of the MDC, Mugabe 
said, "We hope they have learned their lesson.  If they 
haven't, they will learn it the hard way."  The GOZ moved to 
enforce this crackdown by announcing that it had banned 
strikes in the public sector.  This would include doctors, 
nurses, utility, transport, and communication workers, 
firefighters and employees of the state radio and television. 
 
 
And the British 
--------------- 
 
4. (U) A day earlier, at a rally in Manicaland some 300 
kilometers from the capital, Mugabe accused British High 
Commissioner, Brian Donnelly and the British Government of 
funding the MDC mass action and threatening to expel the High 
Commissioner "if he continued interfering in the affairs of 
the country by helping the MDC stage illegal and violent 
demonstrations."  Donnelly denied Mugabe's allegations of 
funding or organizing the mass action while underlining 
support for "the rights of Zimbabweans to freedom of 
expression and association."  This threat follows on remarks 
made June 7 at the funeral of Joshua Nkomo's widow where 
Mugabe criticized both the British and the American embassies 
for their alleged "illegal activities." 
 
And white Zimbabweans 
--------------------- 
 
5.  (U) Mugabe also used both rallies to fan hatred of white 
Zimbabweans.  In Manicaland, he said, "These whites are not 
deserving cases in regards to land allocation because they 
are destabilizing our society.  They are supporting a party 
pursing an illegal course to power.  If they have any land 
left we will take it."  He then singled out Roy Bennet, a 
white commercial farmer and MDC MP for the Chimanmani 
district of Manicaland, for disrupting the operations of 
newly resettled farmers.  Bennet, speaking to South African 
news sources on June 15, reported that a separate farm in 
Ruwa close to Harare had subsequently been occupied by 
ZANU-PF supporters.  At the rally near Bulawayo, Mugabe said 
that whites "just wanted to take and refused to give.  They 
never accepted our rule ...They despise our government and 
want to destroy it. We refuse to be destroyed.  Instead, we 
will destroy them." 
 
Tsvangirai:  He sinned in thought 
 
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--------------------------------- 
 
6. (U)  On the concluding day of Tsvangirai's bail 
application, after defense attorney Bizos showed that 
Tsvangirai had never called for violent demonstrations, the 
 
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prosecutor argued that Tsvangirai was guilty of treason 
because "It's not a question of personally or physically 
participating in a violent or physical manner.  Merely 
postulating or contemplating can be to commit treason."  This 
led one MDC supporter to say that given that criteria "we all 
commit treason when we wake up in the morning."  The 
presiding judge said that she needed more time to render her 
judgment and "could make a decision next week." 
 
Mugabe's actions;  Strategy or reflex 
------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Comment.  Most observers agree that Mugabe and the 
GOZ came out ahead during the mass action proving that they 
still have firm control of the military and police.  The MDC, 
on the other hand, was limited to a relatively successful 
stayaway, no small accomplishment but nothing they had not 
accomplished before.  With that in mind, it is hard to 
understand why Mugabe has chosen to be so deliberately 
provocative.  A South Africa journalist speculated that it 
might be early campaigning but that seems unlikely.  Instead 
it seems as though Mugabe is incapable of new tactics. Mugabe 
has the power to lock Tsvangirai away, humiliate him in leg 
irons and so he has done it  Mugabe has always taken the hard 
line and given nothing away.  That has worked for him in the 
past and he appears unable to see that in Zimbabwe's current 
economic situation, there must be concessions if the country 
is to avoid ruin. 
SULLIVAN