US embassy cable - 03ROME2714

UNCLAS  ROME 002714 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
AIDAC 
 
FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR AS/AF, AS/PRM, PRM/P, EUR/WE, EUR/NE AND IO/EDA 
USAID FOR A/AID, AA/DCHA, AA/AFR, DCHA/FFP LANDIS, PPC/DP, 
PPC/DC 
USDA/FAS FOR CHAMBLISS/TILSWORTH/GAINOR 
GENEVA FOR RMA AND NKYLOH/USAID 
NAIROBI FOR REFCOORD 
BRUSSELS FOR USAID PLERNER AND PRM REP 
USUN FOR MLUTZ 
NSC FOR JDWORKEN 
OMB FOR TSTOLL 
 
E.O.  12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID, EAGR, AORC, PREF, KUNR, WFP, UN 
SUBJECT:  ETHIOPIA-ERITREA HUMANITARIAN CRISIS DISCUSSIONS 
ON THE MARGINS OF THE WORLD FOOD PROGRAM EXECUTIVE BOARDS, 
ROME, MAY 28-JUNE 3, 2003 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
NOT SUITABLE FOR INTERNET POSTING. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (U) The growing threat of possible famine in Ethiopia and 
Eritrea was discussed on a number of occasions on the 
margins of the just concluded WFP Board sessions May 28-June 
3, most notably in a lunch hosted by WFP Executive Director 
Morris on June 2 attended by the United States, European 
Commission, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Italy, the 
Netherlands, and Eritrea. Despite generous donor 
contributions, substantial shortfalls continue to exist as 
both countries start into the "long hungry season." End 
summary. 
 
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WFP luncheon on June 2 
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2. (U) WFP Executive Director Jim Morris hosted, at USDEL's 
request, a luncheon at WFP on June 2 attended by the United 
States, European Commission, United Kingdom, Canada, 
Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, and Eritrea (Ethiopia was 
invited but missed the lunch due to an act of the Roman 
gods). 
 
3. (SBU) Morris began the discussion by saying he plans to 
appoint a WFP special representative for the region, along 
the lines of Judith Lewis' role in southern Africa this past 
year. He also noted that WFP had recently issued a 
new Emergency Operation EMOP (April 2003-March 2004) for 
Ethiopia covering 4.6 million of an estimated 12.5 million 
people at risk (40 percent).  Meanwhile, the gap between 
pledges and actual resources has required WFP to reduce 
rations from 15 kg to 12.5 kg per person - a slow-starvation 
diet - as malnutrition rates continue to climb.  Even if all 
the pledges are immediately fulfilled, the pipeline is 
expected to approach the breaking point in August.  WFP has 
had to borrow from Ethiopia's emergency reserve stocks, 
which are now precariously low and must be reimbursed. 
 
4. (SBU) Ethiopia has eclipsed an even worse situation in 
Eritrea, where the needs are immense, WFP has no carry-over 
stocks, and where EMOP coverage has been reduced from the 
planned 738,450 to 400,000 beneficiaries, at 60 percent 
rations. The new EMOP for Eritrea (May 2003-end February 
2004) to cover 899,000 beneficiaries, is looking at a 
shortfall of 87,110 metric tons which will need to arrive as 
early as July. WFP is shifting some resources from its 
school feeding programs, as families abandon villages and 
trek in search of aid.  Two regions are entirely without 
water, which according to WFP is scarcer and a bigger 
problem than food.  Morris continued that during his visit 
to the region, he saw a dramatic difference between villages 
which had received even modest development assistance and 
those which had not, in terms of their ability to cope with 
the drought.  He noted that Ethiopia and Eritrea are among 
 
the largest recipients of relief aid and among the lowest 
for development.  He added that the UN SYG would raise at 
the G-8 summit the need to mobilize a rapid and large 
response for the region.  Morris said that Ethiopia and 
Eritrea are his top priority. Note: It was pointed out that 
Eritrea has not permitted food-for-work activities since 
1996 and that DANIDA (Denmark) had withdrawn its development 
support to Eritrea's agricultural sector. End note. 
 
5. (SBU) Ambassador Tony Hall welcomed Morris' comments and 
added that in his meeting earlier that day with Secretary 
Powell, he advised that the current crisis in the Horn 
appears to be as devastating as the famine of 1984.  The 
Ambassador mentioned a proposal by Congressman Frank Wolf 
that the UN designate a special representative to mobilize 
an immediate and effective response. (The UK ambassador 
Anthony Beattie later noted that Irish rock musician Bob 
Geldof was again playing a prominent advocacy role for the 
Horn as he had previously done in 1984-85).  Hall said that 
WFP appeared to be the only UN agency focused on responding 
to an enormous humanitarian crisis and that greater 
attention and involvement of the other UN relief agencies, 
as well as international donors, was needed now.  DCHA/FFP 
Director Lauren Landis said that a USAID-funded nutritional 
survey/study to be released on June 6 indicated that there 
is, indeed, "a (potential) famine on our watch."  Coping 
mechanisms are so exhausted and donor response has been so 
inadequate thus far, that she advised WFP may wish to 
consider revising upwards the total population at risk in 
Ethiopia from 12.5 to 14.4 million people. 
 
6. (SBU) As donors did a tour de table, many complained that 
too few structural changes had been taken after the drought 
in the Horn in 2000.  WFP's Judith Lewis and Manuel Aranda 
da Silva (WFP's Regional Manager for West Africa) countered 
that even under the best of circumstances, such changes 
would have required more than three years to prevent the 
recurrence of such a crisis in a region with neither the 
time nor the means to recover from successive natural 
disasters.  Along with Morris, the Ambassador, and Landis, 
they re-focused the discussion on responding to the 
immediate needs and mitigating a potential famine. 
 
7. (U) Later on June 2, the WFP Executive Board also noted a 
statement (submitted by the United States) calling upon 
donors to fulfill their pledges and provide additional 
resources for the emergency in Ethiopia and Eritrea.  Morris 
stressed these same points in both the Executive Board 
meetings and the Resource Consultations with donors on June 
3. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
Text of U.S. Statement submitted to the Executive Board on 
June 2 which will be incorporated in the Summary of the Work 
of the Second Regular Session of the Executive Board, 2003 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
8. (U) Begin text of resolution: 
 
(U) The Executive Board of WFP wants to express its sincere 
 
concern about the critical situation in the Horn of Africa. 
Given the pictures we have seen and the reports we have 
heard, we are seized with the reality that famine is again 
threatening people throughout Ethiopia and Eritrea. 
(U) As expressed in the Common Appeals Process, there are 12- 
14 million people threatened with starvation in Ethiopia and 
1.5 million in Eritrea.  Now more than ever, the world must 
realize the importance of taking immediate action in order 
to save lives.  While we are familiar with the specter of 
famine in this region of the world, we must not let our 
consciences become tired of responding to those in need. 
 
(U) We commend the World Food Programme for acting to feed 
almost eight million people, especially given the pressing 
needs elsewhere.  While we recognize that there are many 
hungry people throughout the world and that we cannot 
neglect them, we see the crisis in the Horn of Africa as our 
top priority at this time. 
 
(U) We urge the entire UN system and donor governments - 
both old and new, big and small - to recognize the magnitude 
and severity of the situation.  We recognize the need to 
work together, especially when the immediate crisis has 
passed, in order to prevent this situation in the future. 
While our response to the threat of famine has improved, it 
still needs to be strengthened in order to guarantee that 
famine will never again threaten the Horn of Africa or 
elsewhere.  Our moral duty demands no less. 
 
(U) End text of resolution. Note: The Summary of Work is 
under circulation and will be formally endorsed by the Board 
at its next formal session. End note. 
 
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Operational discussions in USDEL side meetings 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
9 (U) In an earlier, separate meeting, WFP Central and East 
Africa Regional Director Holdbrook Arthur confirmed that the 
U.S. has covered 33 percent of the new EMOP for Ethiopia but 
unmet needs to date amount to another 200,000 MT.  He 
indicated that WFP has one-third of what it needs for 
Eritrea, where the new EMOP is 87,110 mts short. The 
Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO) (January 
2003-December 2004) is under funded to the tune of 83,050 
mts. 
 
10. (SBU) Holdbrook commented that WFP's Early Warning 
Matrix acknowledges that previous assessments had 
underestimated food aid needs in many parts of Ethiopia and 
notes that the U.S. and some other donors believe there is 
the potential for famine, with the peak of requirements from 
April to June. Meanwhile, floods in the Somali region of 
Gode have led to 100,000 people requiring immediate 
emergency assistance. 
 
11. (U) According to an EC press release issued from Addis 
Ababa on May 26, the EC delivered 94,000 MT to Ethiopia in 
the period February 2003-end-May 2003, versus 407,250 MT 
 
pledged for the year 2003.  The press release included a 
delivery schedule for 212,500 MT to arrive end May-end 
August, as follows: 55,000 mts in May through Djibouti; 
30,000 mts in June through Djibouti and 25,000 mts through 
Berbera; 62,500 mts in July through Djibouti and 25,000 mts 
through Berbera; and 15,000 mts in August through Berbera. 
This information was confirmed separately by FFP. Note: The 
EC shipments include cargoes for the GFDRE/DPPC, NGOs, ICRC 
and WFP. End note. 
 
12. (SBU) According to WFP's Arthur, the WFP Ethiopia 
pipeline will likely break in August, and there is presently 
a serious shortfall of blended foods needed to prevent 
malnutrition among children under five. He confirmed that 
distributions of blended foods had been inadequate in the 
first half of 2003. Arthur added that there is a 300,000 
metric ton shortfall for Ethiopia to cover needs through 
December. 
 
13. (SBU) Arthur also indicated that rations to refugees in 
Ethiopia will probably be cut, including those for the 
repatriation of 25,000 Somalis.  He could not answer 
State/PRM's questions about the substantive number of 
refugees and conflict victims dropped from the Eritrea PRRO 
10192.0, e.g., the criteria used, any provisions for another 
donor to help this caseload, etc.  PRM made its 
dissatisfaction clear and requested WFP to follow up 
immediately. 
 
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Comment 
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14. (SBU) Clearly considerable additional work needs to be 
done now to avert the humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia and 
Eritrea from further spinning out of control. While 
remaining firmly committed to long-term "solutions," we need 
to intensify our focus on saving lives today.  Hall 
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	2003ROME02714 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED