US embassy cable - 03LAGOS1211

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001211 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2008 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, PINR, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: YORUBA LEADER PA ADESANYA'S VIEWS ON 
STATUS OF AD, AFENIFERE, YCE, AND US-NIGERIAN RELATIONS 
 
Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL ROBYN HINSON-JONES FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AN 
 
 
D (D). 
 
 
1. (U) Summary. Leader of Afenifere and member of the 
Patriot's group, Pa Abraham Adesanya, says that the April 
elections must be canceled and an interim government 
installed until "free and fair" elections can be held. He 
claims Afenifere is not seriously weakened after the defeat 
of many Alliance for Democracy (AD) candidates in the 
elections, and that the organization will continue to promote 
the political issues that concern Yorubas.  Adesanya defends 
Afenifere as the true mouthpiece of Yoruba political 
aspirations and stoutly denies that any other group, 
including the rival Yoruba Council of Elders (YCE), can 
adequately represent pan-Yoruba interests.  Adesanya's 
claims notwithstanding, the elections gave both Afenifere and 
the AD a jarring blow.  With the Peoples Democratic Party 
(PDP) having swept the Southwest, President Obasanjo has 
emerged as the preeminent Yoruba politician, casting a large 
shadow over territory that, until April, seemed like the 
exclusive domain of Afenifere and the AD.  End summary. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
The Patriots propose five-year term limits...again 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
 
2. (U) On May 23, a group of prominent, mostly Southern, 
Nigerians, the "Patriots", issued a press statement calling 
for Nigerians to reject the results of the April 19 
Presidential and National Assembly elections.  The statement 
contended that the elections were so riddled with 
irregularities that a government based on such fraud would be 
"a disservice to democracy."  The group called for a one-year 
interim government comprised of political party 
representatives and "other interested groups" that would rule 
Nigeria until "free and fair" elections would be held. 
 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Afenifere is not dead, not even wounded 
--------------------------------------- 
 
 
3. (U) PolOff met with Chief Pa Abraham Adesanya, head of 
Afenifere (pan-Yoruba social and cultural organization), 
member of the Patriots, former Senator from Ogun State, and 
among the leaders who formed the AD party.  The octogenerian 
Adesanya asked for a meeting at his home, as he was 
recovering from an illness and under doctor's orders to "get 
some rest." 
 
 
4. (C) Adesanya adamantly rejected the prevailing verdict 
that Afenifere had lost its clout in the southwest after the 
defeat in the April/May elections of almost all AD 
candidates.  According to Adesanya, Afenifere, is and will be 
the only organization to pursue issues of concern to Yorubas 
worldwide.  He also rejected the notion that AD is a party 
for Yorubas and the southwest States only and pointed out 
that the party has other objectives in different parts of the 
country and for different constituencies.  He noted the facts 
that AD had fielded opposition candidates in the Hausa north 
as well as the Igbo southeast, and that the Igbo candidate, 
Chief Nnanna Uzor Kalu, was one of the few AD winners.  As 
for the notion that the elections revealed Afenifere as a 
moribund organization for old Yoruba men, Adesanya declared 
that any Yoruba, male or female, young or old, could join 
Afenifere.  (Comment. Adesanya's statements that Afenifere 
has an open membership and a pan-Yoruba scope may be true. 
However, a harder truth was that Afenifere and the AD were 
routed by the PDP in this last election.  Additionally, the 
criticism from the Southwest about electoral irregularities 
has, so far, been mild relative to the decibels heard from 
the Northwest and Southeast.  Afenifere and the AD have not 
even been able to marshall enough strength to complain 
vigorously. This is not only a sign of weakness of both 
groups, but also an acceptance of the election results in the 
Southwest.  End comment.) 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
Liars, traitors and the Yoruba Council of Elders (YCE) 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
 
5. (C)  Adesanya became even more acerbic when asked about 
the relationship among the AD, Afenifere and the YCE.  He 
said that the YCE is comprised of disgruntled Afenifere 
members who "crawled away" in opposition to his being named 
leader.  He continued, saying that the YCE is not really made 
up of Yoruba "elders", and has an age threshold of sixty for 
membership that it does not strictly impose. "Some of their 
members are in their fifties and even their forties,"  he 
complained.  According to Adesanya, he was lied to by a 
founding member of the YCE, Judge Adewale Thompson.  Adesanya 
says he met with Thompson when the first rumors were 
circulating that a break-away group was forming.  He says 
that Thompson assured him that no such group would be formed. 
 He asserted that elderly founding members of Afenifere 
(notably ninety-year old Anglican Archdeacon Pa Emmanuel 
Alayande) were "tricked" into supporting the YCE.  Adesanya 
is totally opposed to a multiplicity of groups representing 
the Yoruba, saying the "selfish traitors" of the YCE will 
only bring "trouble into the fold of the Yoruba." 
 
 
6. (C) (Comment. The YCE was among the first to criticize the 
Patriots' interim government proposal.  In a statement to the 
Guardian newspaper, a YCE spokesman called the Patriots plan 
"an invitation to anarchy."  The spokesman also said that the 
YCE considered the April/May elections "the freest and 
fairest in the history of Nigeria."  The YCE position is not 
surprising. The organization is the brainchild of late 
Attorney General Bola Ige.  Since Ige's demise, President 
Obasanjo and his allies have progressively taken control of 
the YCE.  Now the YCE, backed by the weight of the President 
and by PDP electoral gains in the Southwest, is ready to 
challenge Afenifere for the mantle of the preeminent Yoruba 
organization. End comment.) 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
The "so-called" elections and US-Nigerian relations 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
 
7. (C) Seeming to gain more energy with each new topic, 
Adesanya asked PolOff how the US could congratulate the GON 
on an obviously rigged election and continue relations with 
any government formed by fraud.  PolOff informed him that US 
Mission goals in Nigeria included supporting stable political 
and economic growth for Nigeria, and that the USG had 
congratulated only the Nigerian people on conducting the 
elections and on the transition from one civilian government 
to a successor without the military interventions and 
violence of the past.  Adesanya retorted that his complaint 
against the US was that "your economy and trade are placed 
above anything else."  He continued, saying "I take all your 
promises and pronouncements with a grain of salt, because I 
know you are prepared to sacrifice us before your trade." 
 
 
8. (C)  Adesanya said he met with President Olusegun Obasanjo 
before the elections in April and had promised that the 
Southwest would be peaceful. He also promised Afenifere and 
AD support for Obasanjo, a Yoruba.  Adesanya said that, 
because of his pact with Obasanjo, Yorubas did not protest 
election irregularities, implying that it was he, not 
Obasanjo's power and influence, that staved off unrest in 
the Southwest.  He added that AD National Chairman Alhaji 
Ahmed Adamu Abdulkadir, who had at first endorsed the results 
of the elections then recanted, was unable to speak for the 
Yorubas.  He said Afenifere had opposed Abdulkadir's 
appointment from the very beginning because Abdulkadir was 
not a member of any of the founding organizations of the 
party.  Abdulkadir was "surreptitiously" brought in by a 
group of "traitors" and Adesanya refuses to accept him as 
Chairman of AD.  He added that Afenifere will not support any 
"new" AD party led by Abdulkadir. 
 
 
9. (C) Comment. Adesanya has been a prominent politician for 
decades.  He is respected as an elder statesman by Yorubas 
and non-Yorubas.  His views have in the past and will 
continue to have influence in the Southwest.  However, that 
influence may be on the wane thanks to the elections that put 
Obasanjo, the PDP and the YCE in a more advantageous position 
in the Southwest.  For many observers, Pa Adesanya 
personifies what may be a problem with Afenifere and what led 
to the AD's electoral meltdown--that it is controlled by 
octogenarians, out of touch with the younger generation of 
Yorubas who would rather support a Yoruba already in power 
than someone who is more ethno-centric but has no chance at 
national power.  Despite Pa's protestations that Afenifere 
and the AD are not ailing, President Obasanjo now casts a 
formidable shadow over the Southwestern real estate the two 
groups once controlled. End comment. 
HINSON-JONES