US embassy cable - 03RANGOON707

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000707 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP AND INL 
DEA FOR OF, OFF 
CDR USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2013 
TAGS: SNAR, KCRM, PINS, BM 
SUBJECT: BURMA'S OPIUM FIELDS -- GOING, GOING, .... 
 
REF: RANGOON 575 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez. Reason: 1.5 (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: According to information presented by UNODC's 
Resident Representative, Burma eliminated approximately 
one-quarter of its opium fields in 2003.  According to 
UNODC's latest survey, the acreage under opium cultivation in 
Burma in 2003 totaled only 62,100 hectares, down 24 percent 
from 2002.  The reduction, according to UNODC, was equivalent 
to the entire current crop in Laos. End Summary. 
 
Acreage under Cultivation 
 
2. (C) UNODC will release its worldwide opium survey in New 
York next week.  In a pre-brief on June 13, UNODC's Resident 
Representative told the Chief of Mission that opium 
cultivation in Burma had again declined radically.  According 
to UNODC's survey, the acreage under opium cultivation in 
Burma in 2003 totaled only 62,100 hectares, down 24 percent 
from 2002 and more than 60 percent from the 163,000 hectares 
planted in Burma in 1996.  The Resident Representative noted 
that the reduction in acreage under cultivation in Burma in 
2003 was equivalent to Laos' entire current crop. 
 
3. (C) According to UNODC's numbers, the reduction was 
sharpest in northern Shan State, where acreage under opium 
cultivation was down 45 percent. In eastern Shan state, the 
reduction was 26 percent; in southern Shan State 19 percent. 
Only in the Wa territories did acreage under cultivation 
increase.  While the acreage under opium cultivation was down 
in the Wa Alternative Development Project area around Mong 
Yang and Mong Pawk (by about 12 percent), in the Wa 
territories as a whole, acreage under cultivation was up 21 
percent to 21,300 hectares (i.e., about one-third of Burma's 
total production.) 
 
Yield/Hectare 
 
4. (C) Largely offsetting the decline in acreage, however, 
was a sharp increase in yield, thanks to excellent weather. 
According to UNODC, the yield/hectare throughout Burma was up 
about 27 percent from 10.2 kilograms per hectare to 12.9 
kilograms per hectare.  As with acreage under cultivation, 
yields were also highest in the Wa territories at about 16.1 
kilograms per hectare. 
 
Production 
 
5. (C) Overall production, finally, came in at about par with 
2002, as increased yields per hectare approximately offset 
the decline in acreage under cultivation.  According to 
UNODC's numbers, Burma produced about 810 metric tons of 
opium in 2003, down only marginally from the 828 metric tons 
UNODC estimated in 2002. 
 
Comment 
 
6. (C) A couple of points stand out from UNODC's survey. 
First, the weather for opium production was excellent for 
opium production in Burma in 2003.  There was no drought. 
Yet acreage under production declined radically, most 
logically as a result of government efforts. 
 
7. (C) Secondly, in 2003, the government held the cease-fire 
groups to their pledges regarding opium. In fact the largest 
declines in 2003 took place in territories controlled by the 
Peng Kya Shin's Kokang Chinese, which had pledged to be out 
of opium production by 2000, and then reneged.  In 2003, 
thanks to Burmese government pressure, the acreage under 
cultivation in the Kokang Chinese capital district of Lawkai 
was cut to barely 20 percent of its 2002 level. 
 
8. (C) Finally, in 2005 the government will get another 
opportunity to show if it is really ready to take on the the 
ceasefire groups.  As matters now stand, 2005 is to be the 
last year of opium production in the Wa territories.  End 
Comment. 
Martinez