US embassy cable - 03AMMAN3513

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 003513 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/12/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, JO 
SUBJECT: JORDAN ELECTION MISCELLANY: LAST FULL WEEK OF 
CAMPAIGNING 
 
REF: AMMAN 3078 
 
Classified By: DCM Gregory L. Berry.  Reasons 1.5(B) and (D) 
 
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ISLAMIC ACTION FRONT (IAF) THREATENS LAST MINUTE BOYCOTT 
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1. (C) Front page news in Jordan's English daily, The Jordan 
Times, details the IAF's last minute threat to boycott the 
elections due to perceived bias against it by the GOJ.  IAF 
Secretary General Hamzeh Mansour accuses the government of 
 
SIPDIS 
bias against his party by alleging that the government made 
voter lists available to non-IAF candidates.  Interior 
Minister Qaftan Majali denied the accusations, saying that 
voter lists were available for public view at the Civil 
Status and Passport Department. 
 
(Comment: One candidate told us this week that he had sent 10 
volunteers to hand-copy voter lists for his constituency 
while they were on public display.  End Comment.) 
 
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WORRIES ABOUT VOTER APATHY 
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2. (C) PolOffs heard over and over this week that Jordanians 
are disillusioned and uninterested in the election process, 
though there are areas where campaigning seems lively as in 
Aqaba and Ajlun.  The highest levels of apathy seem to be 
among 18-25 year olds.  Many Embassy contacts again explained 
that the degree of apathy is directly related to the level of 
frustration found in Jordan's streets.  Dr. Suleiman 
Aaribiyat, an Embassy contact from Salt and political 
analyst, stated that many people want the GOJ to understand 
that by not voting they are sending a message that they are 
"frustrated and dissatisfied". 
 
3. (U) In an effort to address the indifference of the youth 
to the upcoming elections, the EU funded and launched in 
Amman a media awareness campaign using the popular cartoon 
figure Abu Mahjoob.  The cartoon character appears on 
bulletin boards and in newspaper advertisements with four 
basic messages:  encouraging youth to vote, urging them to 
vote for the most qualified candidates, saying that women can 
make good candidates and finally telling young people to 
trust institutions such as parliament.  Many observers think, 
however, that the GOJ is doing too little too late to 
encourage participation. 
 
4. (C) On June 10 Refcoord met with GOJ Department of 
Palestinian Affairs Director General Abdulkarim Abulhaija who 
confided that the GOJ is concerned about the high level of 
voter apathy.  On orders from the PM, Abulhaija has been 
visiting Palestinian refugee camps in a "get out the vote 
campaign" encouraging the refugees not just to vote, but to 
show their support for the government's agenda.  The reaction 
has been lukewarm with most refugees--like most Jordanians, 
Abulhaija said--believing the parliament and the elections 
have little impact on their daily lives.  Jordanians believe 
that the government, rather than the parliament, makes 
policy.  In order to have meaningful elections, Abulhaija 
continued, this perception is going to have to change. 
 
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CANDIDATE PROFILES 
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5. (C) There is excitement in some quarters, however, PolOff 
met with Ra'ed Qaqish, a 40 year old graphic designer running 
for parliament for the first time in Salt's first district. 
Ra'ed holds degrees from the U.S. and a Ph.D. from the UK. 
He is articulate, enthusiastic about his chances to win, and 
describes himself as a new face with new ideas for Jordan. 
He is running against 6 other candidates for Salt's two 
Christian seats.  He is counting on the support of his 
tribe's 920 votes while using slogans such as "Jordan and 
Modernity" which he says alludes to his belief that Jordan 
must "get away" from its entrenched tribal system (the same 
system he is counting on to win a seat in the next 
parliament).  He has been planning his campaign strategy for 
months: he has set up a website, placed banners all over the 
city, and produced fliers and business cards, and placed 
t-shirts emblazoned with his likeness and name.  For election 
day, he has rented buses and cars to pick up voters and take 
them to voting centers.  His goals if elected will be to 
tackle the problems of unemployment, poverty and a rising 
drinking and drug problem in Salt.  He is concerned about the 
issue of "vote buying" which he claims is common in Salt and 
said votes are being bought for between 20 to 50 Jordanian 
dinars (30 to 70 U.S. dollars). 
 
6. (C) PolOff also met with Feryal Rabidi, a Christian woman 
running for the Christian quota seat in Ajlun.  Again, she is 
counting on the family's support and was confident she would 
win although she is running against her cousin.  She 
estimates that, unlike other parts of the country, voter 
turnout in Ajlun could be as high as 65%, due to the 
influence of the tribal system.  She claimed that the going 
price for a vote in Ajlun was 5 JD (7 U.S. dollars) with many 
poor families "supporting" several competing candidates as a 
way to earn additional income. 
 
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ELECTION DAY POLLING 
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7. (C)  Hani Hourani, director of an Amman NGO, informed 
PolOff that he would conduct an unofficial exit poll on 
election day.  He had received no governmental backing and 
was short on funds.  He stressed that the expected low 
turnout on June 17 was a worrisome development for the GOJ 
since such a lethargic showing at the polls would give the 
King less political cover.  He also explained how in past 
elections the Bedouin areas (loyal supporters of the King) 
would have 85-90% voter turnout and now expects 50-60% 
turnouts in these areas. 
 
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COMMENT 
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8. (C) We do not/not expect IAF candidates--who are already 
registered, campaigning, and on ballots--to withdraw from the 
elections.  The consensus within the IAF and associated 
Muslim Brotherhood is that the IAF lost an important 
political voice by boycotting the 1997 parliamentary 
elections. 
GNEHM