US embassy cable - 97ADDISABABA2584

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 07 ADDIS ABABA 002584 
 
 
NSC FOR RICE 
LONDON FOR YOUNG 
PARIS FOR MORAN 
NAIROBI ALSO FOR KHARTOUM EMBASSY STAFF 
DRL PLEASE SHARE WITH SPECIAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON 
RELIGION 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  04/01/11 
TAGS:  PGOV, SOCI, KISL, PHUM, PTER, PREL, KPRP, ET 
SUBJECT:  ALLAH IN ETHIOPIA: MOSTLY QUIET ON THE ISLAMIC FRONT 
 
REFS:  A) 94 ADDIS ABABA 009151, B) 96 ADDIS ABABA 005554, 
       C) 96 ADDIS ABABA 008833, D) ADDIS ABABA 001871, 
       E) 95 ADDIS ABABA 005809 
 
 
1.  (U) CLASSIFIED BY POLOFF JEFFREY JACOBS, REASON 1.5 
(D) . 
 
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SUMMARY 
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2.  (C)  FEW ISSUES ARE OF GREATER LONG-TERM CONCERN TO 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF 
ETHIOPIA (GFDRE) THAN THE THREAT OF MILITANT POLITICAL 
ISLAM.  AT PRESENT THE GFDRE FACES LITTLE INTERNAL THREAT 
FROM ISLAMIC EXTREMIST GROUPS, BUT SPORADIC VIOLENCE 
BETWEEN GOVERNMENT FORCES AND ISLAMIC MILITANTS HAS TAKEN 
PLACE ALONG THE BORDER WITH SOMALIA, AND ISLAMIC 
EXTREMISTS ARE BELIEVED RESPONSIBLE FOR A SERIES OF 
RECENT HOTEL BOMBINGS AND AN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT ON AN 
ETHNIC SOMALI MINISTER.  ALTHOUGH THE 1994 CONSTITUTION 
GUARANTEES FREEDOM OF RELIGION, AND THIS IS RESPECTED IN 
PRACTICE, PAST REGIMES SUBSIDIZED THE CHRISTIAN ETHIOPIAN 
ORTHODOX CHURCH WHILE MUSLIM INSTITUTIONS ATROPHIED.  THE 
GFDRE IS WORKING DILIGENTLY TO IMPROVE RELATIONS WITH 
MUSLIMS AND TO ASSIST THE SUPREME ISLAMIC COUNCIL (SIC), 
THE ONLY GRASSROOTS ISLAMIC ORGANIZATION WITH NATIONAL 
SCOPE.  MUSLIMS ARE PLEASED WITH THE RELIGIOUS POLICIES 
OF THE GFDRE, BUT ETHIOPIA'S MUSLIM COMMUNITY IS IN 
DISARRAY AND STRUGGLING TO REORGANIZE.  HAVING SAID THIS, 
THE NUMBER OF ADHERENTS TO ISLAM IS GROWING FAST AND 
MUSLIMS MAY SOON OUTNUMBER THE SLOW GROWING AND 
CONSERVATIVE ETHIOPIAN ORTHODOX CHURCH.  THIS CABLE 
FULFILLS A REQUIREMENT OF THE POST REPORTING PLAN. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
REVAMPED ISLAMIC COUNCIL OCCUPIES NEW OFFICES 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) POLOFF AND POL/ECON FSN MET WITH SENIOR OFFICERS 
OF THE SUPREME ISLAMIC COUNCIL (SIC) IN THEIR NEW OFFICE 
ON 20 MARCH.  THE SIC MOVED IN LATE 1996 FROM CRAMPED 
OFFICES NEAR THE GRAND MOSQUE IN THE DENSELY POPULATED 
MARKET DISTRICT TO MORE SPACIOUS ACCOMMODATIONS SEVERAL 
KILOMETERS AWAY.  THE COUNCIL WAS ESTABLISHED IN 1974 BY 
THE FORMER DERG REGIME, FOLLOWING LARGE ISLAMIC 
DEMONSTRATIONS AGAINST THE HAILE SELASSIE GOVERNMENT. 
MUSLIM LEADERS SEE THEIR ROLE AS AN INTERFACE BETWEEN THE 
GFDRE AND ETHIOPIA'S LARGE MUSLIM COMMUNITY.  MUSLIMS 
CONSTITUTE MORE THAN 40 PERCENT OF ETHIOPIA'S POPULATION 
OF AT LEAST 56 MILLION. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
FORMER SIC LEADERSHIP DISMISSED FOR CORRUPTION 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
4.  (C)  ALTHOUGH THE COUNCIL IS THE ONLY GRASSROOTS 
ISLAMIC ORGANIZATION WITH NATIONAL SCOPE, COUNCIL LEADERS 
ARE STRUGGLING TO REORGANIZE AFTER YEARS OF NEGLECT AND 
CORRUPTION.  THE SIC WAS RESTRUCTURED IN 1992 AND WAS 
REVAMPED AGAIN IN OCTOBER, 1996, FOLLOWING THE ARREST AND 
IMPRISONMENT OF NEARLY ALL TOP SIC OFFICIALS FOR 
CORRUPTION.  OF THE SIC LEADERS KNOWN TO THE EMBASSY IN 
1994 (REF A), ONLY GENERAL SECRETARY ABDURAZAK MOHAMMED 
REMAINS WITHIN THE ORGANIZATION. 
 
5.  (C)  THE NEW COUNCIL IS MORE STREAMLINED AND PROVIDES 
FOR EQUAL REPRESENTATION FOR ALL OF ETHIOPIA'S FEDERAL 
STATES.  THE COUNCIL CONSISTS OF 121 MEMBERS.  EACH STATE 
HAS 11 MEMBERS WHILE THE MORE POPULOUS OROMIYA REGIONAL 
STATE HAS 12.  THE GROUP'S EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE HAS 
THIRTEEN MEMBERS.  THE FORMER CHAIRMAN, HAJI MOHAMMED 
AHMED AMAN, DIED IN LATE 1996 AND WILL NOT BE REPLACED 
UNTIL THE PLANNED JUNE 1997 SIC CONFERENCE.  THE COUNCIL 
HAS ALSO ELIMINATED THE POSITION OF SECOND VICE-CHAIRMAN 
AND DEPUTY GENERAL SECRETARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
MOST AFFILIATED ISLAMIC ORGANIZATIONS IN LIMBO 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
6.  (C)  PREVIOUSLY THE SUPREME ISLAMIC COUNCIL WAS AN 
UMBRELLA ORGANIZATION WITH SEVERAL AFFILIATED ISLAMIC 
GROUPS (REF A), BUT COUNCIL MEMBERS ACCUSED THE FORMER 
LEADERSHIP OF USING THE VARIOUS GROUPS TO MISAPPROPRIATE 
FUNDS AND THE AFFILIATED GROUPS HAVE FALLEN INTO 
DISARRAY.  THE ETHIOPIAN KORANIC ORGANIZATION STILL 
EXISTS ON PAPER, BUT IS INACTIVE.  THE ETHIOPIAN ULEMA 
(MUSLIM CLERICS) ARE EDUCATED INDIVIDUALS WITH FORMAL 
RELIGIOUS INSTRUCTION.  THE ULEMA DEAL WITH ALL RELIGIOUS 
ISSUES AT THE LOWEST POSSIBLE LEVEL.  THE COUNCIL IS IN 
THE PROCESS OF RESTRUCTURING THE ULEMA SYSTEM WITH THE 
GOAL OF PUTTING QUALIFIED INDIVIDUALS IN POSITIONS 
NATIONWIDE TO TEACH THE TRUE FAITH TO BELIEVERS.  THE SIC 
HOPES TO HOLD ELECTIONS TO SELECT ULEMAS PRIOR TO THE 
GROUP'S JUNE CONFERENCE. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
DISPUTES AMONG MUSLIM FACTIONS SAID TO BE RESOLVED 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
7.  (C)  MUSLIM LEADERS INSISTED THAT TENSIONS BETWEEN 
ETHIOPIA'S SHAFI AND WAHABBI MUSLIMS HAVE SUBSIDED.  THE 
EMBASSY REPORTED IN 1994 THAT THE TWO GROUPS CLASHED 
VIOLENTLY ON MUSLIM HOLIDAYS IN THREE CITIES NATIONWIDE. 
COUNCIL LEADERS REPLIED THAT ALL ETHIOPIAN MUSLIMS ARE 
SUNNIS AND THAT INTERNAL DIFFERENCES ARE MINOR.  SIC 
LEADERS EXPRESSED SURPRISE THAT THE EMBASSY HAD EVEN 
HEARD OF THE EARLIER DISPUTE. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
SOME OVERLAP BETWEEN THE SIC AND SHARIA COURTS 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
8.  (C)  THE COUNCIL AND THE SHARIA COURTS ARE TWO 
SEPARATE INSTITUTIONS, ALTHOUGH THEIR RESPONSIBILITIES 
OCCASIONALLY OVERLAP.  THE SHARIA COURTS WERE ORIGINALLY 
ESTABLISHED UNDER HAILE SELASSIE AND WERE EMPOWERED TO 
OVERSEE ISLAMIC ISSUES CONCERNING MARRIAGE, DIVORCE, 
WILLS AND TESTAMENTS, AND THE CARE AND GUARDIANSHIP OF 
MINOR CHILDREN.  THE 1994 CONSTITUTION REAFFIRMS THESE 
RIGHTS.  BECAUSE THE COUNCIL IS RESPONSIBLE FOR RELIGIOUS 
ISSUES, THE LEADERS TOLD POLOFF THEIR ROLE IS TO ENSURE 
THAT ONLY QUALIFIED MEMBERS SERVE ON THE COURTS. 
 
9.  (C)  ISLAMIC LEADERS HOPE TO REBUILD THE SHARIA COURT 
SYSTEM.  THEY ALLEGE THAT UNDER THE PREVIOUS COUNCIL 
LEADERSHIP SHARIA COURT JUDGES, WHO HOLD OFFICE FOR LIFE, 
WERE SELECTED BASED ON NEPOTISM AND BRIBERY, RATHER THAN 
FOR THEIR RELIGIOUS EXPERTISE.  AS A RESULT, THE NUMBER 
OF SHARIA COURTS DWINDLED AND THEIR ROLE IN ETHIOPIAN 
MUSLIM SOCIETY DIMINISHED ACCORDINGLY.  COUNCIL LEADERS 
HOPE TO CREATE A FUNCTIONING SHARIA COURT IN EVERY 
DISTRICT IN ETHIOPIA (COMMENT.  THERE ARE MORE THAN SIX 
HUNDRED DISTRICTS NATIONWIDE.  END COMMENT.) 
 
------------------------------ 
GFDRE IS FUNDING SHARIA COURTS 
------------------------------ 
 
10.  (C)  USING THE AMHARA REGIONAL STATE AS AN EXAMPLE, 
THE MUSLIM LEADERS SAID THEY HAVE PETITIONED THE REGIONAL 
GOVERNMENT THERE FOR MONEY TO HIRE 118 SHARIA COURT 
JUDGES.  SELECTION IS BASED ON A RIGOROUS WRITTEN 
NATIONAL EXAMINATION.  FIFTY HAVE ASSUMED OFFICE AND THE 
COUNCIL EXPECTS THE REMAINDER TO BE HIRED AFTER THE 
BEGINNING OF THE NEW FISCAL YEAR IN JULY.  ASKED WHY A 
SECULAR GOVERNMENT IS PAYING FOR RELIGIOUS JUDGES, THE 
LEADERS REPLIED THAT UNDER THE CONSTITUTION SHARIA COURTS 
PROVIDE A JUDICIAL SERVICE AND ARE DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE 
TO THE MINISTRY OF JUSTICE.  (COMMENT:  SHARIA COURTS 
HAVE JURISDICTION ONLY IN SPECIFIED FAMILY DISPUTES 
BETWEEN MUSLIMS, AND CAN ONLY BE EMPLOYED WITH THE 
CONSENT OF BOTH PARTIES.  END COMMENT.) 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
MUSLIM LEADERS BELIEVE PROPERTY WILL BE RETURNED 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
11.  (C)  THE SUPREME ISLAMIC COUNCIL IS WORKING CLOSELY 
WITH ETHIOPIAN FEDERAL AUTHORITIES TO RECOVER PROPERTY 
SEIZED BY THE GOVERNMENT IN DECADES PAST.  ALTHOUGH 
OFFICIALS OF THE DERG REGIME PERMITTED THE SIC TO FILE TO 
RECOVER LAND AND PROPERTY TAKEN AROUND ADDIS ABABA'S 
GRAND MOSQUE, THE APPLICATIONS SAT FOR TEN YEARS WITHOUT 
RESULT.  THE KEY PROBLEM, ACCORDING TO COUNCIL LEADERS, 
WAS A TOTAL LACK OF RECORDS.  OVER THE PAST YEAR, 
HOWEVER, THE GROUP HAS WORKED WITH THE PRIME MINISTER'S 
OFFICE AND THE URBAN DEVELOPMENT AGENCY, TO INTERVIEW 
LOCAL RESIDENTS TO ESTABLISH PROPERTY RIGHTS.  A JOINT 
COMMITTEE REPORT IS IMMINENT AND THE MUSLIM COMMUNITY 
EXPECTS TO RECOVER SOME OF ITS FORMER PROPERTY SOON. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
ONLY LIMITED CONTACT WITH INTERNATIONAL MUSLIM COMMUNITY 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
12.  (C)  POLOFF ASKED ABOUT THE SUPREME COUNCIL'S 
CONTACTS WITH VARIOUS INTERNATIONAL MUSLIM GROUPS.  THE 
MUSLIM LEADERS SAID THEY HAVE HAD LIMITED CONTACT WITH 
THE MUSLIM WORLD LEAGUE.  THE ISLAMIC DEVELOPMENT BANK 
RECENTLY OFFERED TO PROVIDE SCHOLARSHIPS TO STUDENTS OF 
ENGINEERING, MEDICINE, AND AGRICULTURE.  NEVERTHELESS, 
THE MUSLIM LEADERS INSISTED THAT THEIR FIRST PRIORITY HAS 
BEEN TO CREATE INTERNAL LINKS TO ETHIOPIAN MUSLIMS. 
EXPANDING CONTACTS WITH THE INTERNATIONAL MUSLIM 
COMMUNITY IS A SECONDARY GOAL. 
 
13.  (C)  SOME MONEY IS ARRIVING FROM ABROAD.  THE NUMBER 
OF MOSQUES IN ETHIOPIA DOUBLED OVER THE PAST FIVE YEARS, 
FUNDED IN LARGE PART BY PRIVATE MONEY FROM SAUDI ARABIA 
(REF E).  PRIVATE SAUDI BUSINESSMAN MOHAMMED AL-AMOUDI 
HAS BUILT SEVERAL MOSQUES AND KORANIC SCHOOLS, INCLUDING 
A NEW COMPLEX IN THE AFAR REGIONAL STATE.  WHEN 
AMBASSADOR ASKED LOCAL RESIDENTS IN HOSAINA, A ZONAL 
CAPITAL IN THE SOUTHERN PEOPLE'S REGION, WHO WAS 
FINANCING CONSTRUCTION OF A HUGE, NEW MOSQUE, THE LOCALS 
PROFESSED NOT TO KNOW.  THE EMBASSY HAS NO REPORTS OF 
LIBYAN INVOLVEMENT IN ETHIOPIAN MUSLIM AFFAIRS. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
MUSLIM RELATIONS WITH CHRISTIANS ARE GENERALLY HARMONIOUS 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
14.  (C)  ETHIOPIA'S MUSLIM COMMUNITY HAS HISTORICALLY 
FELT MARGINALIZED AND DISCRIMINATED AGAINST BY RULING 
CHRISTIAN GOVERNMENTS.  PREVIOUS ETHIOPIAN REGIMES 
SUBSIDIZED THE CHRISTIAN ETHIOPIAN ORTHODOX CHURCH, WHICH 
CLAIMS MEMBERSHIP OF ROUGHLY HALF OF ETHIOPIA'S 
POPULATION.  ALTHOUGH TENSIONS OCCASIONALLY FLARE UP 
BETWEEN CHRISTIANS AND MUSLIMS, THE COUNCIL ASSURED 
EMBASSY OFFICERS THAT THE TWO COMMUNITIES LIVE IN 
PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE.  THE PATRIARCH OF THE ORTHODOX 
CHURCH HAS AGREED WITH THAT ASSESSMENT, WITH THE SOLE 
EXCEPTION OF ADDIS ABABA, WHERE THE CRUSH OF URBAN LIFE 
SOMETIMES BRINGS THE TWO GROUPS INTO CONFLICT (REF C). 
CHRISTIAN ELDERS IN THE AMHARA REGIONAL STATE ECHOED THE 
COMMENTS OF THE COUNCIL LEADERS.  THEY TOLD THE 
AMBASSADOR IN FEBRUARY THAT MEMBERS OF BOTH RELIGIONS 
HAVE LIVED PEACEFULLY FOR CENTURIES AND HAVE EVOLVED 
MECHANISMS TO RESOLVE DISPUTES.  INTERMARRIAGE IS NOT 
UNCOMMON AND IT IS NOT UNUSUAL TO FIND FAMILIES WITH 
PRACTICING CHRISTIANS AND MUSLIMS UNDER THE SAME ROOF. 
NEVERTHELESS, ORTHODOX CHRISTIAN ELDERS REPORTED MINOR 
QUARRELS, BUT NO SERIOUS VIOLENCE, OVER THE AGGRESSIVE 
EVANGELICAL TACTICS OF TWO NEW ARRIVALS:  JEHOVAH'S 
WITNESSES AND PENTACOSTALS (REF D).  DURING THE 
AMBASSADOR'S EXTENSIVE TRAVELS IN THE PAST NINE MONTHS, 
HE USUALLY ASKS CHRISTIANS AND MUSLIMS ALIKE ABOUT 
RELATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO GROUPS.  THE VERDICT IS 
UNANIMOUS; THEY GET ALONG TOGETHER FINE AND THE CURRENT 
GOVERNMENT IS TOLERANT OF BOTH GROUPS. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
SIC:  NO PLACE FOR AL-ITTIHAD IN ETHIOPIA 
----------------------------------------- 
 
15.  (C)  COUNCIL MEMBERS DENOUNCED THE MILITANT 
FUNDAMENTALIST GROUP, AL-ITTIHAD, AND PREDICTED THE GROUP 
WOULD WIN FEW SUPPORTERS AMONG ETHIOPIA'S MUSLIM 
POPULATION.  THE LEADERS REMINDED US THAT THEY WENT ON 
TELEVISION IN JANUARY AND CONDEMNED ALL TERRORIST ACTS. 
COUNCIL LEADERS CONTENDED THAT SINCE THE MAJORITY OF 
ETHIOPIAN MUSLIMS BELIEVE THAT THEIR RELIGIOUS RIGHTS ARE 
PROTECTED UNDER THE NEW CONSTITUTION, THE EXTREMIST 
MESSAGE HAS LITTLE APPEAL.  THE LEADERS ALSO ACCUSED AL- 
ITTIHAD OF MISINTERPRETING THE KORAN AND PREYING ON 
IGNORANT MUSLIMS WHO DO NOT UNDERSTAND THEIR RELIGION. 
THE GROWING PRESENCE OF TRAINED ULEMAS WILL UNDERMINE AL- 
ITTIHAD'S EXTREMIST MESSAGE, THEY BELIEVE. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
PM MELES SAYS AL-ITTIHAD A TROJAN HORSE FOR TERRORISTS 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
16.  (C)  PRIME MINISTER MELES ZENAWI HAS A LESS SANGUINE 
VIEW OF THE MILITANT FUNDAMENTALISTS.  HE HAS FREQUENTLY 
STATED THAT A STATELESS SOMALIA POSES THE GREATEST LONG- 
TERM SECURITY THREAT TO ETHIOPIA AND TO THE STABILITY OF 
THE REGION.  MELES FEARS THAT SOMALIA MAY BECOME A BASE 
AND SAFE HAVEN FOR INTERNATIONAL TERRORISTS, CRIMINALS, 
AND DRUG TRAFFICKERS, ESPECIALLY AS THE WELCOME MAT FOR 
SUCH GROUPS IS WITHDRAWN FROM MORE TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS. 
THE PRIME MINISTER HAS WARNED THAT AL-ITTIHAD HAS BECOME 
"A TROJAN HORSE FOR ALL TYPES OF TERRORIST GROUPS" AND 
THAT "SOME GOVERNMENTS ARE UNDERESTIMATING AL-ITTIHAD 
BECAUSE THEY VIEW IT AS A PURELY SOMALI ENDEAVOR." 
 
17.  (C)  THE PRIME MINISTER BELIEVES THAT AL-ITTIHAD 
DRAWS SUPPORT FROM LOCAL COMMUNITIES BECAUSE IT IS THE 
ONLY ORGANIZED GROUP IN A POSITION TO PROVIDE NEEDED 
GOODS AND SERVICES IN REMOTE DESTITUTE AREAS.  THE 
EXTREMISTS RECEIVE FINANCIAL AND OTHER SUPPORT FROM IRAN, 
IRAQ, SUDAN, LIBYA, AND PRIVATE DONORS IN SEVERAL GULF 
STATES.  TO COUNTER THE EXTREMISTS, MELES WOULD LIKE TO 
SEE THE CREATION OF A FIREWALL ALONG THE ETHIO-SOMALI 
BORDER THROUGH THE PROVISION OF CROSS-BORDER HUMANITARIAN 
ASSISTANCE TO TRADITIONAL ISLAMIC GROUPS INSIDE SOMALIA. 
THE ETHIOPIAN MILITARY CONDUCTS AGGRESSIVE PATROLLING TO 
COUNTER AL-ITTIHAD'S LIMITED MILITARY ACTIVITIES 
THROUGHOUT THE SOMALI REGIONAL STATE. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
GFDRE FOCUSED ON STABILITY IN SOMALIA AND SOMALI REGION 
OF ETHIOPIA 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
18.  (C)  VIRTUALLY ALL SOMALIS ARE MUSLIM.  THE GFDRE 
HAS DEVOTED SIGNIFICANT SCARCE RESOURCES TO ADDRESS 
SOMALI ISSUES.  THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT MOVED QUICKLY TO 
MOBILIZE DONORS TO ASSESS THE SOMALI REGION'S 
HUMANITARIAN SITUATION IN RESPONSE TO REPORTS OF DROUGHT 
AND FAMINE THERE.  IN RESPONSE TO THE ONGOING INSTABILITY 
IN SOMALIA, ETHIOPIA HOSTED THE SODERE PEACE AND 
DEVELOPMENT CONFERENCE THAT ATTRACTED 26 SOMALI POLITICAL 
FACTIONS, AND THE GFDRE HAS EMBARKED ON A MAJOR 
DIPLOMATIC EFFORT TO OBTAIN DONOR FINANCIAL SUPPORT TO 
SUSTAIN THE SODERE PROCESS.  SINCE EARLY 1995 THE CENTRAL 
GOVERNMENT HAS SUPPORTED PEACE AND RECONCILIATION TALKS 
BETWEEN FEUDING ETHIO-SOMALI CLANS.  TO REINFORCE ITS 
NEUTRALITY, THE EPRDF HAS PUT OFF AN APPLICATION FOR 
MEMBERSHIP BY THE ETHIOPIAN SOMALI DEMOCRATIC LEAGUE 
WHICH NOW RUNS THE REGIONAL GOVERNMENT. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
OTHER MILITANT ISLAMIC GROUPS INACTIVE 
-------------------------------------- 
 
19.  (C)  OTHER DOMESTIC RADICAL ISLAMIC GROUPS HAVE 
SLIPPED INTO OBSCURITY.  THE ISLAMIC FRONT FOR THE 
LIBERATION OF OROMIYA, IN THE EARLY 1990'S THE MOST 
ACTIVE ETHIOPIAN ISLAMIC RADICAL GROUP, HAS FADED FROM 
THE SCENE.  THE MILITANT WING OF THE OGADEN NATIONAL 
LIBERATION FRONT HAS CONFINED ITS ACTIVITIES TO 
PERIODICALLY APPEALING FOR FUNDS FROM SAFE POSITIONS IN 
EXILE AND FORWARDING PROTEST LETTERS TO WESTERN EMBASSIES 
IN THE REGION. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
MUSLIM "MAN-ON-THE-STREET" GENERALLY SATISFIED 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
20.  (C)  DESPITE OCCASIONAL CRITICISM OF SELECT 
INDIVIDUALS IN GOVERNMENT, THE EMBASSY'S MUSLIM CONTACTS 
ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY INSIST THAT THEY HAVE CONFIDENCE IN 
THE GFDRE AND REPORT THAT LINES OF COMMUNICATION ARE 
OPEN.  EVEN IN THE UNDERDEVELOPED SOMALI STATE, WHERE 
CITIZENS ARE FRUSTRATED WITH AN INEFFECTIVE AND PROBABLY 
CORRUPT REGIONAL ADMINISTRATION, MOST CITIZENS BLAME THE 
REGIONAL PRESIDENT - NOT FEDERAL AUTHORITIES - FOR THE 
LACK OF DEVELOPMENT.  MOST EXPECT FEDERAL AUTHORITIES TO 
INTERVENE TO ASSIST THE REGION AND MANY PRAISE THE GFDRE 
FOR SENDING TRAINING TEAMS TO THE REGION AND FOR INVITING 
THE REGION'S ADMINISTRATORS TO VISIT OTHER REGIONAL 
STATES TO OBSERVE AND LEARN. 
 
21.  (C)  THE ATTITUDE OF MUSLIMS IN THE AFAR REGION IS 
POSITIVE.  MUSLIM ELDERS AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS 
IN THE AFAR REGIONAL STATE RECENTLY EXPRESSED THEIR 
SATISFACTION TO US WITH THE GFDRE POLICIES OF 
DECENTRALIZATION AND REGIONALIZATION.  WITH THE CREATION 
OF THE AFAR STATE IN 1995, MUSLIM AFARS FOR THE FIRST 
TIME IN ETHIOPIAN HISTORY FEEL THEY CAN CONTROL THEIR OWN 
DESTINY WITHOUT INTERFERENCE FROM CHRISTIAN HIGHLANDERS. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
ISLAM GROWNG FASTER THAN ETHIOPIAN ORTHODOXY? 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
22. (C)  WE ARE HEARING ANECDOTAL INFORMATION THAT THE 
GROWTH OF ISLAM IN ETHIOPIA MAY BE OUTPACING THAT OF 
NEW ADHERENTS TO THE ETHIOPIAN ORTHODOX CHURCH.  IN 
FACT, MOST MUSLIMS TODAY DISPUTE THE CONVENTIONAL 
WISDOM THAT 40 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION IS MOSLEM AND 
50 PERCENT ETHIOPIAN ORTHODOX WITH THE REMAINING 10 
PERCENT PROTESTANT, CATHOLIC AND ANIMIST.  THE PAPAL 
NUNCIO HAS TAKEN A PARTICULAR INTEREST IN THE ETHIOPIAN 
ORTHODOX CHURCH AND HAS HAD A NUMBER OF FRANK 
DISCUSSIONS WITH THE CHURCH HIERARCHY.  ETHIOPIAN 
ORTHODOXY IS WELL KNOWN FOR ITS CONSERVATISM AND LACK 
OF PROGRESSIVE IDEAS.  MOST OF THE CHURCH LEADERSHIP 
ALSO FALLS INTO THIS CATEGORY.  THOSE FEW WHO WOULD 
LIKE TO MODERNIZE THE CHURCH HAVE CONFIDED TO THE PAPAL 
NUNCIO THAT THE CHURCH IS HAVING GREAT DIFFICULTY 
OBTAINING THE ALLEGIANCE OF YOUNG ETHIOPIANS.  AT THE 
SAME TIME, THERE IS STRONG RESISTANCE WITHIN THE CHURCH 
TO MODERNIZE.  THE MORE ENLIGHTENED LEADERS FEAR THIS 
IS GOING TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THE STATISTICAL 
BREAKDOWN BETWEEN ETHIOPIAN ORTHODOX AND MUSLIMS IN THE 
COMING YEARS. 
 
23. (C)  WHILE THE ETHIOPIAN ORTHODOX CHURCH MAY WELL 
BE FACING VERY SLOW GROWTH, WE SEE NO EVIDENCE THAT IS 
THE CASE FOR THE MUSLIM POPULATION.  ALTHOUGH 
STATISTICS ARE LACKING, THE NUMBER OF NEW MOSQUES UNDER 
CONSTRUCTION AND INFORMATION BASED ON OUR TRAVEL AROUND 
THE COUNTRY SUGGEST THAT ISLAM IS ADDING TO ITS NUMBERS 
WITH EASE.  WE SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT PROTESTANT GROUPS, 
PARTICULARLY THE MODERATE EVANGELICAL MEKANE YESUS AND 
PENTECOSTALS ARE ALSO GROWING RAPIDLY.  BUT THEIR 
GROWTH COMES FROM A MUCH SMALLER BASE, PARTICULARLY THE 
PENTECOSTALS.  THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS SITUATION FOR 
THE FUTURE IS CLEAR.  SHOULD MUSLIMS BECOME IN THE NOT 
DISTANT FUTURE A MAJORITY, WHICH IS A REAL POSSIBILITY, 
IT WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE THE POLITICAL DYNAMIC OF 
ETHIOPIA.  BECAUSE THE MUSLIMS ARE POLITICALLY DIVIDED 
AND TEND TO RESIDE IN THE PERIPHERY AS OPPOSED TO THE 
HIGHLANDS OF ETHIOPIA, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISLAMIC 
POLITICAL LEADERSHIP ANYTIME SOON.  BUT WE DO NEED TO 
BE ALERT TO THE CHANGING DYNAMIC HERE. 
 
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COMMENT 
------- 
 
24.  (C)  ETHIOPIA'S MUSLIMS NOW ENJOY BETTER TREATMENT 
THAN AT ANY TIME IN THEIR LENGTHY HISTORY, THIS DESPITE 
THE GFDRE'S DEEP CONCERN OVER THE SPREAD OF MUSLIM 
EXTREMISM WHICH, IT BELIEVES, IS SUPPORTED BY RADICAL 
ELEMENTS IN KHARTOUM AND BY WEALTHY PRIVATE INTERESTS IN 
THE GULF STATES. 
 
25.  (C)  THE GFDRE APPEARS DETERMINED TO UNDERMINE THE 
THREAT OF ISLAMIC EXTREMISM BY WORKING CLOSELY WITH 
MAINSTREAM MUSLIMS AND BY CLOSELY MONITORING RADICAL 
GROUPS IN NEIGHBORING SOMALIA AND SUDAN.  NO MILITANT 
GROUP POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE GFDRE AT THIS 
TIME, ALTHOUGH SEVERAL ARE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TERRORIST 
ATTACKS.  NEVERTHELESS, AS LONG AS AL-ITTIHAD RECEIVES 
OUTSIDE FINANCIAL SUPPORT AND ENJOYS SAFE HAVENS IN 
NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES, THE ETHIOPIAN MILITARY CANNOT 
COMPLETELY DEFEAT THE EXTREMISTS.  SIMILARLY, UNTIL 
FUNDAMENTAL POWER-SHARING ISSUES ARE RESOLVED AMONG 
COMPETING ETHIO-SOMALI CLANS, THE EXTREMISTS WILL BE ABLE 
TO CAPITALIZE ON ANY RESULTING DISSATISFACTION. 
 
26.  (C)  THE RADICAL ISLAMIC MESSAGE HAS LITTLE APPEAL 
FOR MOST ETHIOPIAN MUSLIMS.  ONLY IN PERIPHERAL AREAS 
WHERE THE FLEDGING REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS HAVE YET TO MAKE 
AN IMPACT ON THE OFTEN DESPERATE POPULATION ARE THE 
EXTREMISTS MAKING LIMITED HEADWAY.  HUNGRY AND THIRSTY 
PEOPLE ACT TO SURVIVE, RARELY OUT OF TRUE DEDICATION TO 
THE MILITANT CAUSE.  NEITHER AL-ITTIHAD NOR OTHER 
MILITANT GROUPS SUCH AS THE ISLAMIC FRONT FOR THE 
LIBERATION OF OROMIA HAVE ATTRACTED SIGNIFICANT POPULAR 
SUPPORT. 
 
27.  (C)  THE NEW SIC IS BUSILY TRYING TO MAKE UP FOR 
YEARS OF NEGLECT AND PROVIDE BETTER SERVICE TO THE 
ETHIOPIAN MUSLIM COMMUNITY. THEY ARE PLEASED WITH 
RELATIONS WITH THE ETHIOPIAN GOVERNMENT AND ARE ENJOYING 
THEIR NEW-FOUND FREEDOM TO PRACTICE THEIR RELIGION 
WITHOUT INTERFERENCE, BUT ARE HAMPERED BY A LACK OF MONEY 
AND A SERIOUSLY DETERIORATED MUSLIM INFRASTRUCTURE. 
 
28.  (C)  AFTER HUNDREDS OF YEARS OF LIVING TOGETHER IN 
RELATIVE ISOLATION, THERE ARE FEW BURNING ISSUES THAT 
DIVIDE ETHIOPIA'S MUSLIM AND CHRISTIAN COMMUNITIES AND 
FEWER STILL THAT ARE LIKELY TO PROVOKE VIOLENT CLASHES 
BETWEEN THE TWO GROUPS. 
 
 
SHINN