US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA1530

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 001530 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PREL, PINR, GT 
SUBJECT: ELECTORAL TRIBUNAL UPHOLDS BAR AGAINST RIOS MONTT 
 
REF: GUATEMALA 1479 
 
1.  (U) By a three to two vote on June 12 the Supreme 
Electoral Tribunal (TSE) upheld a ruling from the Registry of 
Citizens (reported RefTel) barring President of Congress 
Efrain Rios Montt from running for president.  The ruling was 
based on Article 186 (a) of the Constitution.  Rios Montt has 
announced he will appeal this ruling to the TSE, and if 
reaffirmed, to the Supreme Court.  Constitutional experts 
estimate that the full appeal process including the Supreme 
and Constitutional Courts could take at least another month 
to complete. 
 
2.  (SBU) Before announcing the ruling, TSE President Oscar 
Bolanos privately expressed concern to us about recent 
threats to his family's security.  He received a call on the 
eve of the ruling detailing all of his daughter's movements 
the day before.  The Ambassador called Bolanos to express 
concern over the threats Bolanos has been receiving, and to 
tell him that we expedited a visa for Bolanos' daughter to 
travel to the U.S. on June 12. 
 
3.  (U) In another electoral development, Romeo Alvarado 
Polanco, one of five Constitutional Court magistrates who 
will ultimately have to rule on Rios Montt's eligibility to 
run, resigned on June 12.  Alvarado had been appointed to the 
court by President Portillo and had voted in favor of several 
resolutions favoring views of the governing Guatemalan 
Republican Front (FRG), including the GOG's controversial 
Euro-bond issue.  The President has constitutional authority 
to name a replacement for Alvarado.  The other four 
Constitutional Court justices were selected by the Supreme 
Court, Congress, the High Council of the University of San 
Carlos, and the Bar Association, respectively. 
 
Comment 
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4.  (SBU) The TSE ruling bolsters the rule of law and took 
courage.  The desertion from the Constitutional Court appears 
to reflect the opposite.  His sudden departure will be read 
by most observers as indicating that pressure and threats, 
like those received by Bolanos, are starting to weigh on all 
those who have to decide this controversial case. 
HAMILTON