US embassy cable - 03ABUJA1049

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001049 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/12/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, PINR, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: POLITICAL ROUNDUP JUNE 13 
 
REF: ABUJA 934 
 
 
 CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER; REASON: 1.5 (B) 
and (D). 
 
 
1. (U) THIS PERIODIC JOINT POLITICAL REPORT FROM ABUJA AND 
LAGOS INCLUDES: 
2. 
--ELECTION TRIBUNALS UPDATE 
--WABARA FOR SENATE PRESIDENT 
--VIOLENCE-FREE INAUGURATION 
--DO THE JUNE 20 ELECTIONS MATTER? 
--VIOLENCE IN ADAMAWA STATE 
 
 
------------------------- 
ELECTION TRIBUNALS UPDATE 
------------------------- 
 
 
2. (U) The election tribunals continue to hear cases. 
Several relatively minor cases have been thrown out on 
various technicalities.  In the lone election to be annulled 
so far, a tribunal in Edo State rejected PDP House of 
Representatives candidate Jun Adun's victory and awarded the 
seat to his ANPP challenger, Amen Osunde.  Though many 
elections face challenges in the tribunals, the House and 
Senate already held their opening sessions and selected the 
legislative leadership.  Both houses have adjourned until 
June 24. 
 
 
--------------------------- 
WABARA FOR SENATE PRESIDENT 
--------------------------- 
 
 
3. (C) Although at the center of an election fracas over his 
reelection, PDP Senator Aldolphus Wabara was chosen last week 
as the new Senate President.  INEC originally announced ANPP 
candidate Dan Imo as the winner of the Abia South-Central 
Senatorial seat. President Obasanjo even sent Imo a 
congratulatory message.  Nevertheless, on June 2, the Federal 
High Court in Abuja ordered INEC to change course and certify 
Wabara as the victor.  Imo has asked the High Court to vacate 
its order.  The High Court has not yet responded to Imo and 
the case is still pending before an election tribunal.  For 
the moment, Wabara has assumed his post as Senate President. 
Meanwhile, Justice Egbo Egbo, who issued the ruling to INEC, 
has been called before a tribunal headed by Supreme Court 
Chief Justice Uwais. 
 
 
-------------------------- 
VIOLENCE-FREE INAUGURATION 
-------------------------- 
 
 
4. (U) Despite calls by some in the opposition parties for 
"mass action" to derail President Obasanjo's May 29 
inauguration, Nigeria was calm and peaceful and the inaugural 
activities nearly hitch-free throughout.  In anticipation of 
disturbances on the day of inauguration, large numbers of 
troops and police were deployed in Abuja and other major 
population centers.  The National Assembly convened its 
inaugural session without problem.  There were no reported 
incidents of large-scale violence or protests.  After having 
their attempts to thwart the inauguration through legal 
maneuvering rejected by the Courts, opposition parties now 
await rulings from the various electoral tribunals.  Detailed 
analysis of the opposition and its options will follow septel. 
 
 
-------------------------------- 
DO THE JUNE 20 ELECTIONS MATTER? 
-------------------------------- 
 
 
5. (C) Conventional wisdom is that local government elections 
would take place on June 20 in all 36 states.  However, since 
the timing of the elections is controlled by each state, 
elections in several states could be postponed due to 
political or logistical considerations (NOTE: LGA elections 
were originally scheduled for March 2002.  END NOTE.)  There 
have been reports in the domestic media and from mission 
sources that predict several governors will either delay or 
cancel LGA elections in their states. 
 
 
6. (C) COMMENT: In addition to "election fatigue," creation 
of new LGAs might be the driving force behind election delays 
or cancellations in some states.  Currently, Nigeria has 774 
constitutionally mandated LGAs.  Funds for each of these LGAs 
are earmarked by the Federal Government as a portion of the 
monies it disburses to the states.  Since newly created LGAs 
will not receive these earmarked Federal monies they could be 
more easily controlled by the state governors who control 
their access to funding.  Governors who advocate creating new 
LGAs will seek to delay elections until they can do so. 
Governor Makarfi of Kaduna State is attempting to create 25 
new Local Government Areas and has declared his intention to 
cancel the upcoming elections.  Several other states have 
also announced intentions to create new LGAs. 
 
 
7. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: At the national level, the LGA 
elections have little more impact than providing an 
opportunity for sitting governors to solidify their control 
of their respective states.  Whether a state holds LGA 
elections on June 20 or delays them depends largely on 
whether having elections sooner or later (or not at all) will 
be more advantageous to the chief executive of the state 
concerned.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
------------------------- 
VIOLENCE IN ADAMAWA STATE 
------------------------- 
 
 
8. (C) There was an outbreak of religious/communal violence 
in Numan, Adamawa State on June 8.  According to newspaper 
and radio reports, eight people were killed during a riot 
sparked when a non-local Muslim "water hawker" stabbed a 
female Christian evangelist during an argument over the cost 
of a jerry can of water.  A mosque and "several other places 
of worship" reportedly were razed during the riot.  A 
dusk-to-dawn curfew has been in effect since Sunday, June 8, 
and there have been no further reports of violence in the 
area.  (COMMENT: This incident is illustrative of the 
underlying religious tension in many Nigerian communities. 
Religion may have only played a minor role in the event that 
caused this eruption but it was enough to provoke widespread 
violence this community.  Fortunately, this incident was 
localized and brought quickly under control.  There is no 
indication the violence in Numan has significantly raised the 
level of tension in other areas of Adamawa state, or 
neighboring areas, or other s 
tates in Nigeria.  END COMMENT.) 
JETER 
JETER