US embassy cable - 03ROME2674

UNCLAS  ROME 002674 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, IT, ITALIAN POLITICS 
SUBJECT:  ITALY'S LOCAL ELECTIONS:  BERLUSCONI COALITION 
BRUISED, BUT STILL STANDING 
 
REF:  ROME 2067 
 
1.  This is a joint Mission Italy cable. 
 
2.  SUMMARY:  While no victory for the governing center- 
right coalition, Italy's local elections do not signal 
the imminent demise of the Berlusconi Government.  The 
outcome offers a lesson, if one were needed, that in 
coalition politics, unity counts:  The coalition that 
holds itself together best wins.  The corollary is that 
good-quality candidates are also important.  Results will 
cause short-term disharmony within the coalition, but are 
unlikely to prompt permanent fractures.  They have also 
at least temporarily energized a center-left heretofore 
characterized by messy public disunity, although it will 
continue to face significant challenges stitching 
together the kind of wide coalition -- including at least 
elements of the far-left Communist Renewal -- needed to 
return to power.  The elections are above all local, 
without major implications for the next national campaign 
or Italy's upcoming EU Presidency.  Nonetheless, they may 
reflect dissatisfaction on the part of some center-right 
or swing voters with slow Government progress to meet its 
2001 campaign pledges.  E1ND SUMMARY. 
 
3.  Italy's local elections ended on June 8-9 with run- 
off contests for the May 25-26 balloting and single-round 
elections in the autonomous regions of Valle d'Aosta and 
Friuli Venezia Giulia (reftel).  The results are being 
billed in the local media as a defeat for Prime Minister 
Berlusconi's center-right coalition, with even pro- 
government Berlusconi-family-owned "Il Giornale" 
headlining "The Center-Right Succeeded in Losing."  The 
center-right indeed took a hit, but a very brief abstract 
of the numbers does not suggest devastation.  Indeed, as 
the Forza Italia (FI) Chamber of Deputies party whip Elio 
Vito (and subsequently many others in the coalition) 
pointed out, the center-right actually obtained almost 
one million more votes than the center-left. 
_______________________________ 
 
-- Of 12 races for provincial president, seven went to 
the center-left, and five to the center-right, a gain of 
one (Rome) for the center-left. 
 
-- In mayoral races in nine provincial capital cities, 
five went to the center-left, and four to the center- 
right, again a gain of one for the center-left.  (Note: 
This is far from a scientific sample of results of the 
495 city council races up for grabs, but in our view, it 
highlights the races which are somewhat more 
significant.) 
 
-- The center right lost the regional presidency in 
Friuli Venezia Giulia. 
 
-- Union Valdotaine won the Valle D'Aosta regional 
presidency.  Union Valdotaine is a local-issues party 
whose parliamentarians occasionally side with the center- 
left, but the race is not reflective of national inter- 
coalition balance. 
 
4.  A major factor contributing to sensational headlines 
-- and admission within the Berlusconi coalition of the 
need to step back and review results with an eye to what 
went wrong -- is the loss of the two highest profile 
races in overwhelmingly lackluster elections -- Rome 
province and Friuli Venezia Giulia region.  Both losses 
highlight the main lessons of the elections:  A winning 
coalition must be united and should choose its candidates 
carefully.  In Rome Province, the story is less that the 
center-right lost than that its victory in 1996 was 
something of a miracle.  (Rome historically votes left.) 
The coalition's victory in 1996 and defeat this year can 
be attributed in large part to its cohesion in the former 
and its lack thereof in the latter elections.  (A similar 
picture emerged in Sicily.)  With this loss confirmed 
after the May 25-26 first round, the coalition's second- 
largest member, National Alliance (AN, Deputy Prime 
Minister Fini's party), of which the losing regional 
president was a member, was in the lead calling for a 
coalition review.  In Friuli, Umberto Bossi's Northern 
League pushed for, and obtained, coalition backing for 
its candidate, Alessandra Guerra, rather than sticking 
with the incumbent regional president.  (As in the U.S., 
incumbents have a distinct advantage in Italian local 
elections.)  The center-left ran the well-known former 
Mayor of Trieste (and coffee magnate; his name appears on 
cafes and coffee packages throughout Italy) Riccardo 
Illy.  Illy won -- and Bossi's League is for the moment 
out-shouting AN in its calls for a coalition powwow. 
 
 
5.  The significance of the electoral results should not 
be overemphasized.  Given the limited weight of local 
elections, it would be wrong to view this as a center- 
left breakthrough -- although it would be equally wrong 
to deny the center-left its moment of glory for 
maintaining coalition cohesion.  Historically the left, 
with a disciplined party base, performs better in run-off 
elections, which center-right voters tend to skip.  The 
left is generally stronger in local elections, as well, 
thanks to the same disciplined base and a tendency to 
have stronger candidates at the local level -- probably a 
chicken and egg phenomenon.  It is harder for the 
disparate elements of the left and center to come 
together on national issues -- reform of labor codes and 
upcoming Article 18 referendum (septel) are examples. 
 
6.  It makes sense for the center-right to use the set- 
back as impetus to reconsider the coalition and its 
future.  While Claudio Scajola, FI election coordinator 
and former Interior Minister, said these were "local 
elections with many local factors," Union of Christian 
Democrats of the Center (UDC) leader Marco Follini 
admitted that the loss "indicates difficulty (within the 
coalition).  There's no need to beat around the bush; we 
need to discuss (the situation) with calm."  Besides the 
obvious cracks in the coalition -- AN accusing the League 
of lack of support in Rome; the League hinting at AN 
betrayal in Friuli Venezia Giulia and Bossi again 
threatening to withdraw; UDC and AN claiming a greater 
voice based on their attractiveness at the polls -- there 
are also signs that dissatisfaction with the GOI's 
progress in fulfilling 2001 campaign pledges 
(particularly pocketbook issues of economic reform and 
tax cuts) may have dimmed the enthusiasm of center-right 
voters.  The center-right has plenty to discuss, and some 
of the debates may be noisy and public.  We predict, 
however, that the coalition will not fracture, discipline 
will be restored -- and the coalition will hold.  The 
only potential impact on Italy's EU Presidency would be 
to give economic reform issues, if the GOI concurs that 
frustration with the pace of reform was a factor in its 
poor showing. 
 
7.  One winner of the elections is Communist Renewal (RC) 
and its leader, Fausto Bertinotti.  Given the imperative 
for a tight coalition and a simple analysis of the 
numbers, it should be clear to the center-left that it 
cannot win nationally unless it attracts at least some of 
the far-left voters Bertinotti represents.  Italian media 
are already highlighting center-left efforts to court RC 
with a view to national elections.  Its success in doing 
so without alienating centrist voters, and its subsequent 
ability to act cohesively, will be crucial to any hopes 
the center-left coalition has of unseating Berlusconi. 
Meanwhile, we still expect the next national elections to 
be held in 2006. 
SKODON 
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	2003ROME02674 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED