US embassy cable - 03HARARE1207

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001207 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
DS/OP/AF 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/12/2008 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINR, ZI, MDC 
SUBJECT: MDC LOOKS TO THE FUTURE; TSVANGIRAI SPENDS ANOTHER 
NIGHT IN CUSTODY 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER PEGGY BLACKFORD FOR REASON 1.5B/D 
 
 Summary 
----------- 
 
1. (C)  MDC leaders worried that President Mugabe might try 
to influence the judiciary to keep their president, Morgan 
Tsvangirai, in jail for a month or more.  They welcomed the 
 
SIPDIS 
reported visit of President Bush to the region and hoped that 
it would step up pressure for dialogue.  They judged last 
week's mass action to be a success overall and were 
especially pleased with the favorable media coverage the 
events had received in South Africa.  In the coming month, 
the party's priorities will include party building, 
international policy development and communication as well as 
preparing for dialogue and a transition government.  Their 
budget has been strained by the need in recent days to pay a 
large number of legal fees, fines, medical expenses and to 
provide shelter for those under threat. 
 
MDC Leaders Concerned for Tsvangirai 
------------------------------------ 
 
2. (C)  At dinner with the Ambassador and PolOff June 11, MDC 
leaders, Vice-President Gibson Sibanda, Secretary-General 
Welshman Ncube, and spokesman Paul Nyathi expressed their 
concern for President Morgan Tsvangirai.  He had been brought 
to court for his bail hearing in the morning wearing prison 
khakis and in handcuffs and leg-irons.  Upon application by 
his attorney, he was permitted to change into his own 
clothes.  The hearing; however, had not concluded by late 
afternoon and was continued until June 12.  The MDC leaders 
do not believe that the Judge is likely to hand down a ruling 
before Friday if then.  They have heard rumors that Mugabe is 
pressuring the judiciary to keep Tsvangirai in jail for at 
least a month "to teach him a lesson."  They asked the US to 
intervene urgently with the South Africans to bring pressure 
to bear to get Tsvangirai released. 
 
3.  (C)  Ncube who was arrested June 9 on charges similar to 
those pending against Tsvangirai, namely making public 
statements calling on people to oust Mugabe, was released 
after one night in prison.  He was very grateful to be out. 
The Ambassador inquired if he felt that the government had 
released him so promptly in an effort to drive an wedge 
between him and Tsvangirai.  Interestingly, for one so 
skeptical about the independence of the judiciary, he 
rejected this possibility and seemed to believe that his 
release was simply the result of the fact that the government 
failed to make a good case.  He could prove he was not at 
several of the meetings where he was alleged to have made 
statements. 
 
 Relying on International Initiatives 
------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C)  All three leaders were delighted with press reports 
that President Bush is to visit South Africa next month. 
They believed that such a visit would put great pressure on 
President Mbeki to get a real dialogue going.  Asked where 
they stood with the South Africans, they said that the MDC 
had furnished the SAG with a memo laying out its priorities 
and conditions weeks ago and had not yet received any 
feedback from either the South Africans or ZANU-PF.  They 
believe that the South Africans were still awaiting a ZANU-PF 
reaction. 
 
Evaluating Last Week's Mass Action 
---------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C)  Asked to judge their success in last week's mass 
action, they all professed to be quite content with the 
result.  Sibanda said that they had always expected that the 
demonstrations would fail to materialize, but announced them 
anyway in the anticipation  that the government would crack 
down as it did and assure a very successful stayaway.  The 
Ambassador raised the issue of unmet expectations.  Sibanda 
acknowledged that some people had interpreted the "final 
push" rhetoric literally and might be disappointed but 
overall none of the leaders seemed to believe that their 
support had eroded in any significant way.  Nyathi, who spent 
last week in South Africa, was very pleased with the coverage 
the events had received in the South African media.  He 
believed that the MDC had gained considerable support among 
the South African population which would be useful in 
motivating the SAG to push harder for dialogue.  He did 
indicate that he believed the mass action had uncovered a 
weakness in the party's internal communication system which 
would have to be addressed. 
 
Next Steps 
---------- 
 
6.  (C)  PolOff asked the leaders what came after last week's 
mass action.  Ncube said that they were planning to lay low 
and let tempers cool for a couple of weeks and then they 
would try to get negotiations back on track.  Although 
admitting that Mugabe had never negotiated with his domestic 
opponents except from a position of overwhelming strength, 
Ncube and Sibanda pointed out that he had done so on occasion 
in international disputes.  They pointed out that although 
Nkomo and his ZAPU party had been emasculated in negotiations 
in the 80's, ZAPU had no international support and, in fact, 
many in the West were so anxious to see Zimbabwe succeed that 
they had encouraged ZAPU to agree to a settlement.  They also 
distanced themselves from Nkomo who they intimated had sold 
out for a high-ranking position and a comfortable life. 
Ncube also said they would be continuing to focus on three 
main objectives:  party building, international policy and 
communication.  In response to an inquiry from the 
Ambassador, Sibanda confirmed that they were continuing to 
work on a Blue Book of policies which would form the basis 
for a transition government. 
 
Difficulties 
------------ 
 
7.  (C)  The leaders were asked about finances or other 
difficulties they might be facing.  Sibanda replied that 
while their budget was not in as good a shape as it was last 
year, that was only to be expected given the current 
inflation rate.  Ncube said that their big problem over the 
last 10 days or so has been raising enough money for legal 
fees and fines for those arrested, medical expenses for 
supporters who were injured and particularly shelter for 
those afraid to go home.  The Ambassador promised to look 
into the use of the Victims of Torture Fund to see if we 
could assure that USAID funds to cover these expenses were 
made available expeditiously.  (Note:  Part of the problem 
has been GOZ harassment of fund managers.) 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
8.  (C)  Although clearly tired and somewhat dismayed at 
being pursued by GOZ forces of law and order, on the whole 
the MDC leadership still at liberty seemed relatively upbeat 
and relaxed.  They appear to be planning well for the future 
and making the most of opportunities to bring international 
pressure to bear on Mugabe.  Mugabe, however, has proved 
remarkably immune to such pressure in the past and shows no 
signs of believing that he needs to come to an understanding 
with the opposition. 
 
SULLIVAN