US embassy cable - 97SOFIA1105

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SOFIA 001105 
 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  2/18/07 
TAGS:  PGOV, PREL, BU 
SUBJECT:  BULGARIA'S UNION OF DEMOCRATIC FORCES UNITES 
AS A "PARTY," PLANS PARLIAMENTARY PRIMARIES 
 
REF:  SOFIA 1047 
 
1.(U)  CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES A.I. ROSE 
LIKINS.  REASON:  1.5(D). 
 
2.(C)  SUMMARY:  AT THE FEB. 15-16 NATIONAL CONFERENCE 
OF BULGARIA'S UNION OF DEMOCRATIC FORCES (UDF), ROUGHLY 
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PAGE 02        SOFIA  01105  01 OF 03  191403Z 
4000 DELEGATES ENTHUSIASTICALLY AGREED TO UNIFY THE 
UDF'S 15 CONSTITUENT PARTIES INTO A SINGLE POLITICAL 
PARTY; RE-ELECTED IVAN KOSTOV AS CHAIRMAN; ENDORSED 
PARLIAMENTARY PRIMARIES; AND AUTHORIZED COALITION 
NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE UDF'S UNITED OPPOSITION PARTNERS, 
THE PEOPLES UNION AND THE MOVEMENT FOR RIGHTS AND 
FREEDOM.  WHILE NOT LONG AGO PARTY UNIFICATION AND 
KOSTOV'S RE-ELECTION WERE BY NO MEANS A SURE THING, 
DELEGATES, JUBILANT FROM THE END OF SOCIALIST RULE AND 
THE STELLAR PERFORMANCE OF THEIR MAN IN THE PRESIDENCY, 
GAVE UDF LEADERS THEIR FULL SUPPORT, AND THE CAREFULLY 
ORCHESTRATED CONFERENCE WENT OFF WITHOUT A HITCH. 
PRESIDENT STOYANOV ADDRESSED THE ASSEMBLY, THANKING THE 
UDF FOR HIS MANDATE TO BE "PRESIDENT OF ALL BULGARIANS" 
AND WISHING THE UDF SUCCESS IN ITS NEAR-CERTAIN FUTURE 
GOVERNMENT.  IN A RELATED DEVELOPMENT ON FEB. 18, 
PRESIDENT STOYANOV YIELDED TO UDF DEMANDS THAT HE REJECT 
A CONTENTIOUS, SOCIALIST-SPONSORED CHANGE IN BULGARIA'S 
ELECTION LAW.  END SUMMARY. 
 
UDF LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS, CONVERSION TO A PARTY 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
3.(C)  THE FEB. 15-16 NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF BULGARIA'S 
UNION OF DENOCRATIC FORCES (BULGARIA'S LARGEST 
OPPOSITION FORCE WHILE THE SOCIALIST PARTY WAS IN OFFICE 
THESE LAST TWO YEARS) WAS A WELL-PLANNED AND 
WELL-ORCHESTRATED EVENT.  OVER 4000 UDF DELEGATES 
ENTHUSIASTICALLY ENDORSED THE POLITICAL AGENDA OF UDF 
CHAIRMAN IVAN KOSTOV AND RE-ELECTED HIM AND THE REST OF 
THE UDF LEADERSHIP.  STILL RADIANT FROM THE OVERWHELMING 
NOV. 3 ELECTORAL VICTORY OF THEIR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE 
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PAGE 03        SOFIA  01105  01 OF 03  191403Z 
PETAR STOYANOV, A MONTH OF SUCCESSFUL PROTESTS AGAINST A 
SECOND SOCIALIST GOVERNMENT, AND THE SCHEDULING OF 
PRE-TERM PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, UDF CONFERENCE 
DELEGATES GAVE HEARTY SUPPORT TO THEIR EXECUTIVE 
COUNCIL'S CALL FOR UDF UNIFICATION INTO A SINGLE PARTY. 
WHEREAS ONLY A FEW MONTHS AGO A SUBSTANTIAL MINORITY 
QUESTIONED KOSTOV'S LEADERSHIP AND PARTICULARLY HIS 
EFFORTS TO NEGOTIATE WITH MORE MODERATE SOCIALIST 
DEPUTIES, NOW THE UDF LEADERSHIP COULD DO NO WRONG. 
 
4.(U)  THE DELEGATES READILY VOTED TO ACCEPT NEW 
STATUTES UNIFYING THE UDF'S 15 CONSTITUENT PARTIES INTO 
A SINGLE POLITICAL PARTY, ELIMINATING THE UDF NATIONAL 
COORDINATING COUNCIL, TRANSFERRING ITS RESPONSIBILITIES 
TO THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL (NEC), AND EXPANDING 
MEMBERSHIP OF THE NEC FROM SEVEN MEMBERS TO ELEVEN. 
(COMMENT:  THE CUMBERSOME AND QUARRELSOME NATIONAL 
COORDINATING COUNCIL GAVE UNDUE WEIGHT TO SOME OF THE 
MINUTE PARTIES THAT MADE UP THE UDF COALITION.  THE 
COUNCIL HAD COMPRISED 139 MEMBERS:  3 FROM EACH OF THE 
MEMBER PARTIES, 59 MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT, 7 MEMBERS OF 
THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL, AND 28 UDF REGIONAL 
COUNCIL CHIEFS.) 
 
5.(U)  KOSTOV RAN UNOPPOSED FOR PARTY CHAIRMAN AND WAS 
RE-ELECTED BY A SHOW OF HANDS.  LAWYER MP HRISTO 
BISSEROV WAS SIMILARLY ELECTED AS THE PARTY'S CHIEF 
SECRETARY.  IN A SECRET BALLOT, DELEGATES, CHOOSING FROM 
21 CANDIDATES, ELECTED FOUR DEPUTY CHAIRMEN:  MP 
NADEZHEDA MIHAILOVA, MP EKATERINA MIHAILOVA, UDF FLOOR 
LEADER IN THE PREVIOUS PARLIAMENT MP IORDAN SOKOLOV, AND 
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PAGE 04        SOFIA  01105  01 OF 03  191403Z 
SOFIA UDF CHAIRMAN AND WIDELY APPLAUDED COORDINATOR OF 
RECENT PROTEST ACTIVITY EVGENI BAKURDJIEV.  ALSO ELECTED 
TO THE UDF NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL WERE ALEXANDER 
BOZHKOV (DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AND MINISTER OF INDUSTRY 
IN THE CARETAKER CABINET), ECONOMIST MP MURAVEI RADEV, 
LAWYER MP VASSIL GOTSEV AND UDF FORMER LEADER, FORMER 
PRIME MINISTER, AND INJURED PROTEST VETERAN FILIP 
DIMITROV.  THE 11-MEMBER NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL WILL 
ALSO INCLUDE THE UDF'S FUTURE PARLIANENTARY GROUP 
LEADER. 
 
STOYANOV AND KOSTOV ADDRESS THE FUTURE GOVERNING PARTY 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
6.(U)  THE PARTY CONFERENCE WAS KICKED OFF BY AN 
APPEARANCE BY UDF FAVORITE SON, BULGARIAN PRESIDENT 
PETAR STOYANOV. CAREFULLY ACKNOWLEDGING HIS UDF R00TS 
WHILE MAINTAINING HIS R0LE AS NATI0NAL LEADER, ST0YAN0V 
EXPRESSED HIS THANKS F0R HAVING BEEN GIVEN THE UDF'S 
CLEAR MANDATE T0 BE A PRESIDENT T0 ALL BULGARIANS.  HE 
STRESSED THAT, AFTER THE UPC0MING APRIL PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTI0NS, THE DIFFICULT RESP0NSIBILITY 0F RULING 
BULGARIA WILL M0ST LIKELY G0 T0 THE UDF, AND HE 
EXPRESSED PRIDE THAT THE UDF IS A NATI0NALLY RESP0NSIBLE 
F0RCE, READY T0 GOVERN.  IN WISHING SUCCESS TO THE UDF 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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PAGE 01        SOFIA  01105  02 OF 03  191404Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   ACDA-10  ACDE-00  INLB-01  AID-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00 
      INL-01   OASY-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    FBIE-00  H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   L-01     ADS-00   M-00 
      NRRC-00  NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00 
      PRS-00   P-00     CIO-00   SCT-00   SP-00    TRSE-00  USIE-00 
      PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-09   G-00       /027W 
                  ------------------9B6B9E  191404Z /38 
P 191401Z FEB 97 
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9112 
INFO USEU BRUSSELS 
EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 SOFIA 001105 
 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  2/18/07 
TAGS:  PGOV, PREL, BU 
SUBJECT:  BULGARIA'S UNION OF DEMOCRATIC FORCES UNITES 
AS A "PARTY," PLANS PARLIAMENTARY PRIMARIES 
 
C0NFERENCE, HE SAID HE H0PED THAT THIS W0ULD MEAN 
SUCCESS F0R BULGARIA. 
 
7.(U)  PARTY CHAIRMAN K0ST0V, DESCRIBING THE UDF AS THE 
F0RCE F0R CHANGE AND GUARANT0R 0F RIGHTS, FREED0MS, AND 
A EUR0PEAN 0RIENTATI0N, 8TRESSED THE IMPORTANCE 0F 
AD0PTING THE NEW PARTY STRUCTURE, N0TING THAT THE UDF 
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PAGE 02        SOFIA  01105  02 OF 03  191404Z 
HAD T0 ESTABLISH 0RDER IN ITS 0WN RANKS T0 SH0W THAT IT 
C0ULD ESTABLISH 0RDER IN THE C0UNTRY.  SIGNIFICANTLY, 
K0ST0V ALS0 STR0NGLY EXH0RTED THE ASSEMBLY T0 REMEMBER 
THE IMP0RTANT R0LE PLAYED T0 DATE BY THE UNIFIED 
0PP0SITI0N AND ARGUED F0R C0NTINUED C0ALITI0N IN THE 
ELECTIONS AND IN G0VERNMENT.  LESS T0 HIS CREDIT, HE 
ALS0 MADE THE TRADITI0NAL BUT GRATUIT0US SLAP AT FORMER 
PRESIDENT ZHELEV, BLAMING HIM F0R THE FALL 0F THE FIRST 
UDF G0VERNMENT UNDER FILIP DIMITR0V IN 1992. 
 
C0NFERENCE DECISI0NS:  PRIMARIES AND C0ALITI0N BUILDING 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
8.(C)  UDF MP ASEN AG0V C0MMENTED T0 P0L0FFS AT THE 
C0NFERENCE'S C0NCLUSI0N THAT ITS SUCCESS WAS T0 HAVE 
BEEN EXPECTED AS THE LEADERSHIP HAD CAREFULLY PLANNED 
THE RESULTS IN ADVANCE.  INDEED, THE C0NFERENCE PR0VIDED 
AMPLE 0PP0RTUNITY F0R DELEGATES T0 V0ICE THEIR VIEWS IN 
A SUCCESSI0N 0F 3-MINUTE SPEECHES, BUT THEY ULTIMATELY 
APPROVED PREVIOUSLY DRAFTED PROGRAM DOCUMENTS AND 
AUTHORIZED THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL TO TAKE STEPS 
THAT WERE PRE-SCRIPTED, ALBEIT WIDELY ENDORSED BY THE 
DELEGATES.  IN ADDITION TO ADVOCATING PARTY UNIFICATION, 
MANY DELEGATES DECRIED THE COUNTRY'S DISMAL SITUATION, 
CALLED FOR THOSE RESPONSIBLE TO BE BROUGHT TO JUSTICE, 
AND ADVOCATED "LUSTRATION" POLICIES TO RID STATE 
INSTITUTIONS OF COMMUNIST INFLUENCE. 
 
9.(U)  IN ADDITION TO ACCEPTING ITS LEADERSHIP'S 
POLITICAL PROGRAM, CONFERENCE DELEGATES AUTHORIZED THE 
NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL TO TAKE THE FOLLOWING 
ACTIONS: 
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PAGE 03        SOFIA  01105  02 OF 03  191404Z 
 
-- TO DEVELOP AN ELECTORAL PLATFORM TO GUARANTEE 
BULGARIA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY, COMBAT ORGANIZED CRIME, 
ATTRACT FOREIGN FINANCING AND INVESTMENT, AND CARRY OUT 
SOCIAL MARKET REFORM, PRIVATIZATION, AND LAND RESTITUTION 
 
-- TO DEVELOP A UNIFIED PERSONNEL POLICY (NOTE:  A 
REFERENCE TO QUESTIONS OF PAST COMMUNIST ASSOCIATIONS); 
 
-- TO PROVIDE FOR MP CANDIDATE SELECTION THROUGH 
PRIMARIES; 
 
-- TO CONDUCT NEGOTIATIONS WITH UNITED OPPOSITION 
PARTNERS FOR A PRE-ELECTORAL COALITION ON THE BASIS OF A 
GENERAL PLATFORM AND PRIMARY ELECTIONS; AND 
 
-- TO CONCLUDE A PRE-ELECTION AGREEMENT WITH UNITED 
OPPOSITION PARTNERS FOR A POST-ELECTION COALITION 
GOVERNMENT. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
10.(C)  THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND UNIFYING THE UDF WAS 
ITS CHAIRMAN IVAN KOSTOV, WHO HAD FOR MONTHS ADVOCATED 
FORMATION OF A SINGLE PARTY PRIOR TO PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS.  AMONG OTHER REASONS, KOSTOV WANTED TO FORM A 
SINGLE UNIFIED PARTY SO THAT HE WOULD NOT BE FACED WITH 
CONFLICTING MINISTERIAL PORTFOLIO DEMANDS FROM 15 UDF 
MEMBER PARTIES (MANY TINY AND THIN ON EXPERTISE) IF THE 
UDF CAME TO POWER.  NOT SURPRISINGLY, WHEN FIRST 
PROPOSED OFFICIALLY BY THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE BOARD ON 
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PAGE 04        SOFIA  01105  02 OF 03  191404Z 
NOV. 19, THIS NOTION FACED STIFF RESISTANCE FROM THE 
LEADERS OF A NUMBER OF THE SMALL PARTIES WHO FEARED 
LOSING THEIR OWN PERSONAL POWER OR INFLUENCE.  KOSTOV 
THUS CAME UNDER SERIOUS THREAT OF LOSING HIS LEADERSHIP 
POST, BUT HIS P0SITI0N WAS B0LSTERED GREATLY BY THE 
SUCCESS 0F THE RECENT ANTI-S0CIALIST PR0TESTS. 
 
11. (C)  N0W WITH A UNIFIED PARTY BEHIND HIM, K0ST0V AND 
0THER UDF LEADERS STILL FACE AN EN0RMOUS CHALLENGE TO 
0RGANIZE AND ADMINISTER PRIMARIES AND SUBSEQUENT 
ELECT0RAL CAMPAIGNS IN LESS THAN TW0 M0NTHS.  A RELATED 
AND EQUALLY DIFFICULT CHALLENGE WILL BE T0 NEG0TIATE 
C0ALITI0N ARRANGEMENTS WITH THEIR UNITED 0PP0SITI0N 
PARTNERS, WH0 ARE N0T AS WELL-EQUIPPED T0 PARTICIPATE IN 
PRIMARIES AND WH0 WILL HAVE P0RTF0LI0 DEMANDS 0F THEIR 
0WN.  THE C0NTENTI0US ISSUE 0F L0WERING THE THRESH0LD 
F0R ENTRY INT0 PARLIAMENT FR0M F0UR PERCENT T0 THREE 
PERCENT (AN ELECTION LAW AMENDMENT PUSHED THROUGH BY THE 
S0CIALIST PARTY 0N THE PARLIAMENT'S LAST DAY IN SESSI0N 
- REFTEL) COMES INT0 PLAY HERE.  0N FEB. 18, PRESIDENT 
STOYAN0V YIELDED TO K0STOV'S INSISTENCE THAT HE REJECT 
ELECTI0N LAW AMENDMENTS BECAUSE 0F THIS PR0P0SED 
CHANGE.  THE FALL-0UT FROM THE RETENTI0N 0F THE F0UR 
PERCENT BARRIER IS UNCERTAIN BUT WILL BE A KEY FACT0R IN 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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PAGE 01        SOFIA  01105  03 OF 03  191404Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   ACDA-10  ACDE-00  INLB-01  AID-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00 
      INL-01   OASY-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    FBIE-00  H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   L-01     ADS-00   M-00 
      NRRC-00  NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00 
      PRS-00   P-00     CIO-00   SCT-00   SP-00    TRSE-00  USIE-00 
      PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-09   G-00       /027W 
                  ------------------9B6B9F  191404Z /38 
P 191401Z FEB 97 
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9113 
INFO USEU BRUSSELS 
EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 SOFIA 001105 
 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  2/18/07 
TAGS:  PGOV, PREL, BU 
SUBJECT:  BULGARIA'S UNION OF DEMOCRATIC FORCES UNITES 
AS A "PARTY," PLANS PARLIAMENTARY PRIMARIES 
 
THE UDF'S NEG0TIATI0N WITH THE MAINLY ETHNIC TURKISH 
M0VEMENT F0R RIGHTS AND FREED0MS, THE SPLINTERED 
AGRARIAN UNI0N 0F ANASTASIYA M0SER, AND STEFAN SAV0V'S 
DEM0CRATIC PARTY. LIKINS