US embassy cable - 03OTTAWA1636

UNCLAS OTTAWA 001636 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
 
E.O.  12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CA, NDP 
SUBJECT: CANADA PROVINCIAL ELECTION: MANITOBA RE-ELECTS NEW 
DEMOCRATIC PARTY (NDP) 
 
Ref: Ottawa 01325 
 
THIS MESSAGE IS A PRODUCT OF APP WINNIPEG. 
 
1. SUMMARY.  As expected, Manitoba Premier Gary Doer and his 
left-of-center New Democratic Party (NDP) won a second 
majority government in the June 3 elections. The Manitoba 
NDP is a strong proponent of the Canadian Wheat Board 
monopoly and a driving force behind Canadian opposition to 
U.S. proposals to alleviate flooding of North Dakota's 
Devils Lake.  End Summary. 
 
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No Major Campaign Issues 
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2.  The campaign featured no major issues and registered 
relatively little enthusiasm among the Manitoba electorate. 
Though voter turnout dipped to 55 percent (the norm is 69 
percent), observers of Manitoba politics say the "low" 
turnout is a sign of satisfaction with the status quo. 
Aided by a strong economy and low unemployment rate, the 
ruling NDP gained 3 new seats in the Legislature. 
Preliminary results showed the NDP winning 49 percent of the 
popular vote (vs. 44 percent in 1999).  With 20 seats and 36 
percent of the vote, the Progressive Conservative (PC) Party 
will remain the official Opposition party. 
 
 
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No Change for U.S. Interests 
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3.  We expect little change for U.S. interests in Manitoba 
under the second Doer government.  Manitoba will continue to 
be a driving force behind Canadian opposition to inter-basin 
water transfers (Devils Lake, NAWS, etc.) and support for 
the Canadian Wheat Board headquartered in Winnipeg.  At the 
same time, Gary Doer places a premium on Manitoba's 
relationship with the United States, which is the 
destination for nearly 80% of Manitoba's exports.  He has 
been successful in quashing some of the anti-American 
rhetoric within the provincial party, and was visibly absent 
earlier this year when some of his Cabinet and Caucus joined 
protests opposing U.S. military action in Iraq.  Rarely is 
the blatant anti-Americanism of the federal NDP publicly 
manifested in Manitoba's NDP, though the sentiment is 
present. 
 
4.  The Premier enjoys close personal relations with 
Ambassador Cellucci and the leaders of several states 
(Minnesota, Missouri, Texas, South Dakota).  He will press 
ahead with further development of Manitoba hydroelectricity 
generation potential, and actively solicit U.S. markets for 
surplus hydroelectricity. 
 
5. COMMENT.  The NDP conducted a cautious campaign.  In 
resisting some pressure to adopt a more "leftist" agenda, 
the party was able to hold greater appeal for the middle- 
class suburban voters that tend to decide Manitoba 
elections.  Premier Doer's personal popularity and his image 
as a centrist politician were key factors in enabling the 
NDP to steal three suburban Winnipeg seats from Conservative 
incumbents, as well as one open Conservative seat.  Though 
the NDP made province-wide gains in the popular vote, 
however, it failed to make any significant breakthrough into 
the PC's rural base. 
 
CELLUCCI